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US
reorganizes its military might
By Alan Boyd
SYDNEY - Thailand, the Philippines and Australia have been targeted as possible
US defense staging posts just days after the United States announced that it
would restructure its forces in Asia, and as the Pentagon is considering a
partial pullout from its remaining Asian bases in Okinawa and South Korea.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld confirmed this week that the 100,000 US
troops in the region would be affected by a global realignment of US forces,
which is expected to take effect within the next two to three years in the hope
of better preparing the US to confront terrorism around the world.
Initiated by Rumsfeld shortly after he took office in 2001, and hastened by
logistical shortcomings that were exposed as far back as the first Gulf War,
the strategic review aims to improve the response time for US forces by giving
them access to more locations abroad.
"That requires much more agility, it requires access to a larger number of
locations, it requires less static defense, if you will," the defense chief
said in Guam while en route to East Asia for talks with military planners.
While the final study is not expected to be released for months and still has
to be vetted by Congress, political and military leaders in South Korea and
Japan have already been given an outline of the likely changes. According to
diplomats, the Pentagon does not intend to open any additional bases in Asia
but will negotiate access for stockpiles of military hardware that can be
quickly shifted by air or sea to trouble spots. Australia, Thailand and the
Philippines have been informally approached to accept stockpiles, with the lure
that some material might also be made available for the "war against
terrorism".
The "places, not bases" concept was first devised in 1991, when the Pentagon
had difficulty moving the enormous quantities of armament and the large numbers
of troops that were needed for the invasions of Iraq and Kuwait. When it was
forced to leave Subic Bay in the Philippines one year later, the only US
presence left in Southeast Asia was a small logistics operation in Singapore,
while East Asia, on the other hand, had the Korean and Okinawan bases.
Commercial arrangements were subsequently bartered with Malaysia, Brunei,
Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines for refueling and port access; but none
offered the security of long-term tenure that was needed for US forces to
respond on a regional basis.
Attempts to broker floating stockpiles of arms, ammunition and fuel in
Southeast Asian waters were rebuffed because of strong Cold War sensitivity
over the presence of US forces. However, the terrorism alert has brought a
greater public acceptance of the need for a heightened role by the United
States, which is the only regional or global power capable of adapting to the
changing nature of warfare.
"We're moving worldwide from a static defense to a different footprint, a
footprint that recognizes that it's not possible today to predict with
precision where a threat may come from or exactly what kind of a threat it
might be," Rumsfeld said in Guam.
According to diplomats, Thailand has agreed in principle to allow a US
stockpile to be stationed at a naval facility on the Gulf of Thailand, while
Australia was discussing plans for a staging point on its northern coastline.
Public sentiment is less certain in the Philippines, despite close cooperation
in combating terrorism. With a possible change of government following the
presidential election, negotiations are unlikely to start for some time.
Pacific commander Admiral Dennis Blair said last year that the United States
was committed to a long-term role as regional coordinator of a cooperative
security umbrella, and was striving to make weapons and communication systems
more compatible.
Logistical problems became apparent during the peacekeeping operation in East
Timor in 2000, when US units were unable to communicate with most other troops
in the multinational force. As a result, Washington is helping upgrade East
Asian logistics systems and coordinating operations through multinational
exercises like Cobra Gold in Thailand, Balikatan in the Philippines and Tandem
Thrust in Australia.
Cooperation in the suppression of terrorism has given Washington the glue it
needs to keep the umbrella intact, but there is still a perception that East
Asia's defense establishments are working at cross-purposes.
"Some allies are obviously going to be more important than others. Japan, Korea
and Australia will remain the linchpins because they operate the same basic
defensive platforms as the US and are more in tune politically," said a
diplomat. "Staging points are a logistics rather than a strategic concept.
Singapore is the model, as it has performed the role through Changi [naval
base] for a number of years, to the extent that it is now servicing
Nimitz-class carrier groups."
The US, Japan and Australia formed a liaison group last year to study how East
Asia's security and defense capabilities could be enhanced, and it is currently
meeting in Canberra. Frontline countries will be offered more training and
equipment, but will also be expected to assume increased responsibility for
their own defense once the US streamlines its presence in the region.
Combined troop numbers in Japan and Korea are likely to be scaled back by at
least 20-30 percent, as fewer will be needed to wage wars that are likely to be
dominated in the future by missiles and other long-range strategic options.
Greater use will also be made of carrier groups, which have the mobility and
air capability to cover a bigger area than traditional land-based forces.
For this reason, Okinawa is expected to be retained long after the Korea
infantry units have been run down, despite intense public opposition on the
island to the nearly 30,000 US troops.
"Stationing large numbers of ground forces on the [Korean] Peninsula may have
made a lot of sense during the Cold War, but it is a redundant concept now that
the focus has shifted to theater missiles," said a Western defense attache.
"From the US point of view, it would be more realistic to consolidate fleet
resources and marines in Okinawa and move the Korea infantry to, say, Guam or
Hawaii, where they can be used in a fast-response role."
But Okinawa has said it wants the US forces out. Governor Keiishi Inamine
embarrassed Rumsfeld this week by publicly rebuking Washington for assuming
that the island would shoulder "the excessive burden of US bases over long
years".
Although the bases are less of an issue for mainland Japanese, stronger support
for the opposition Democrats in the country's recent general election hints at
a liberal swing that could bring pressure for a more independent defense
stance.
Washington is expected to offer a sharp reduction in overall troop numbers,
including a cutback in the much-derided marine contingent of 17,000, in return
for continued port access.
One sticking point could be the future of the 374th Airlift Wing at Yokota Air
Base, north of Tokyo, which is the only US transport group in Asia capable of
rapidly reinforcing Korea once troops there have been pulled out.
While Japan has indicated that it does not want a total withdrawal and would
settle for a smaller force capable of deterring North Korean missiles, public
resentment over aircraft noise from the base is an emotive political issue.
In South Korea, many of the 37,000 infantry forces are already being withdrawn
from frontline positions ahead of an expected reassignment, after battle
simulations indicated a war with the communist North could be fought with a
smaller army. Pointedly, Rumsfeld also called on South Korea to become more
self-reliant militarily. Seoul spent an estimated US$12 billion on its defense
forces in 1998-2002, but lagged behind China, Japan, Taiwan and India.
The US defense chief confirmed that South Korea was one of the key areas being
reviewed worldwide, along with Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of
Europe and Africa.
"Obviously these things will be adjusted as we talk to our allies and friends.
But it's been a big effort for the United States, and something that I believe
when it is completed ... will considerably better position the United States
for the 21st century," he said.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
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