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Myanmar generals seek to shore up
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By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK - The mixed messages coming from
Myanmar's military government in advance of an
international meeting next week to discuss the nation's
future have lent more urgency to the question: How
serious are the generals?
This week, for
instance, Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt told
Japan's public television station NHK that the
impoverished Southeast Asian country was hurting because
of international pressure and Japanese and US economic
sanctions.
The general used the occasion to ask
Japan to ease up on the tough line Tokyo has taken
following the repression unleashed by the junta.
"To push for democratization of our country, it
is important that we build a solid economic foundation.
Japan's current economic assistance is not enough, but I
believe Japan would extend a helping hand," Khin Nyunt
said on NHK.
After the 1988 military crackdown
on democracy advocates when the junta grabbed power, the
Japanese government froze the flow of large loans and
other development assistance to Yangon but maintained
humanitarian assistance.
At the same time, the
ruling generals are in no mood to be reprimanded by
Japan and the nine other nations expected to attend the
meeting next Monday in Bangkok to discuss political
reform in Myanmar.
Late last week, Myanmar's
deputy foreign minister warned participating countries
that the junta will not tolerate criticism. "If [the
meeting] is meant to criticize the nation, then we won't
attend, but if it is there as a constructive action, we
are willing to attend and clarify the situation," Khin
Maung Win told the media.
The discussions hosted
by the Thai government will focus on the seven-point
plan for political reform announced by Khin Nyunt
shortly after he was appointed premier in August.
Myanmar watchers, however, are placing
less emphasis on such tough talk and giving more weight
to the significance of the meeting itself. The
generals have been reluctant to attend international events
in which they may be criticized and pressured,
says Debbie Stothard of the human-rights lobby
Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (ALTSEAN).
She argues that Yangon's decision to participate
reflects desperation to improve its international
standing and not a major shift toward genuine reform
within the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
as the junta calls itself.
"It is clear that the
current international pressure being exerted on the SPDC
by the US sanctions is having an effect. It has
triggered this change," Stothard said. "We only hope the
meeting will not stem this growing pressure."
The US Congress this year endorsed sanctions
that include the ban on imports from Myanmar. At the
time, the United States was the principal market for
Myanmar-made goods, according to a report by the
human-rights lobby.
In 2001, Myanmar shipped
US$456 million worth of goods to US markets, an increase
of $443 million in 2000, the report said.
In
addition to Japan, the countries due to attend this
month's meeting include China, France, Germany, India,
Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.
Myanmar
political exiles living in Thailand share Stothard's
skepticism of the junta's commitment to reform. They
cite what they call deficiencies in Khin Nyunt's
"roadmap" for change: it does not give a time frame for
political reform, it does not mention pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi or her National League for
Democracy, and it is silent on the rights and treatment
many persecuted ethnic communities.
Exiles Soe
Aung observes: "This is an opportunity for the SPDC to
show that they are doing something to solve the
country's domestic politics. The meeting will give
legitimacy for the SPDC's roadmap, which is military
dominance."
Such a reading by Soe Aung, external
affairs director at the Network for Democracy and
Development, an umbrella organization of Myanmar exiles,
stems from the string of false starts and failures by
Yangon's junta to push for meaningful change.
The arrest in May of Nobel peace laureate Suu
Kyi and her senior officials was a typical example of a
setback, giving exiles another reason to lose faith in
the junta's political agenda.
At the same time,
the military government has succeeded in convincing a
traditional foe that the "roadmap" has merits worth
endorsing. This week, a leader of an ethnic rebel
movement that has been fighting Yangon for decades was
quoted as having said that the junta appears genuine.
Karen National Union deputy chairman General Bo
Mya "said he has fewer doubts about the genuineness of
the junta's intentions after hearing his deputy's
reports of their discussions in [Yangon]," the online
magazine Irrawaddy, published by Myanmar exiles in
Thailand, reported in its December 9 edition.
The junta received similar endorsements from
Razali Ismail, the former Malaysian diplomat who has
tried to push the junta toward reform in his capacity as
the United Nations special envoy to Myanmar.
"It
is inevitable that change will happen in Myanmar,"
Razali told journalists on Monday in Kuala Lumpur.
"There is progress, but there are bigger expectations
politically and economically."
For Stothard of
the human-rights lobby, next Monday's meeting will help
clarify the latest message from Myanmar's generals. "The
countries participating have a big responsibility to
make sure the SPDC is not given a break," she said, "but
pressured into moving towards genuine reform."
(Inter Press Service)
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