Crisis on, chicken off menu
By Gary LaMoshi

DENPASAR, Bali - We're having cumi (squid) tonight and kare ikan (fish curry) tomorrow. Our cook Kadek has made a far more decisive response to the outbreak of bird flu than regional governments managed for months.

On Sunday, Indonesia joined the growing list of countries affected by an epidemic of an avian flu virus that can also infect humans, conceding that the outbreak may date back to September. Thailand and Vietnam have reported human deaths from the flu.

This bird-flu crisis bears chilling similarities to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) last year. Despite months of evidence that an epidemic was brewing, a history of similar outbreaks, and SARS, officials throughout the region seem unprepared to deal with the bird-flu issue. That scenario drives Andrew Grant crazy.

"Countries and companies don't often think ahead," contends Grant, managing director of organizational development group Tirian. "When a crisis happens, you've got instant issues, you don't have time to think. Making a decision under pressure doesn't give us the luxury of looking at all the possible choices and where those roads lead." Without that pressure, it's much simpler to see the real issues.

Catch me if you dare
In the wake of last year's SARS crisis, Tirian developed "Catch Me if You Dare", a crisis-management simulation for the public and private sectors. "In a simulation, you can see what things work and what things don't," Grant explains. "It's a much more costly exercise to actually go through a crisis."

Or to go through the same ones again and again. When Grant approached companies in Hong Kong about participating in "Catch Me ..." simulations, "They said, 'We don't want to talk about that again, let's put that behind us.' We should be looking at what can we learn from a crisis. These things do come back."

After reading about the simulation of a smallpox outbreak in the United States that exposed rampant lack of preparedness, Grant realized that a similar crisis in Asia would present far greater complexity: "What about when you have that scenario strewn across 12 different cultures?"

For example, different value systems dictate different approaches to danger. There's rational risk management, which is really little more than guessing, versus belief in a higher power, which is refusing to guess. Grant recalls a story he heard from an Australian lifeguard about spotting a shark in water among a thousand bathers. "If he sounded the alarm, the people would panic, which may result in a shark attack. Who is to judge what the best solution is? Therefore it is better to encourage constructive dialogue rather than to make inflammatory accusations."

Fewer opinions, more understanding
With charges of government cover-ups of bird flu now flying, Grant cautions: "We need less of harsh opinions and more understanding of where people are coming from." For example, citing SARS, Grant notes, "In China it can appear that social stability is more important than the deaths of a few people." But understanding is a two-way street. Grant also asserts that China has an obligation to act responsibly: "A country of a billion needs to understand what affects them also affects us."

Poultry farmers now find themselves at the mercy of what their governments will do. Authorities in Thailand and Indonesia were similarly reluctant to confront the bird-flu problem. Now that the issue is on the table, though, there are key differences in the two countries' responses.

For example, in Thailand, with the cat now out of the bag, in go the birds. Millions of chickens have been placed in plastic bags and buried in an effort to halt the epidemic in its tracks. Though details are still fuzzy, the Thai government has also promised poultry farmers compensation for their lost flocks.

Widespread doubletalk
Indonesian officials say they're not planning any such massive cull. In a classic bit of doubletalk to the national Antara news agency, Minister of Agriculture Bungaran Saragih rejected killing infected flocks because the virus was too widespread. However, he said the government would reconsider that decision and might opt for a cull if the virus became widespread.

The reason behind that doubletalk is another Indonesian epidemic: no budget. Though there always seems to be money in the till for new official cars or junkets, too often the government lacks money for essential services. If you're a foreign investor, count on the government departments to offer you any services you require, as long as you are willing to pay the bill, and a reasonable gratuity. If you're a small chicken farmer in Karang Asem, about 60 kilometers northeast of here, they'll see you when it's time to buy your vote, which is much cheaper than buying you a new flock of chickens.

One farmer complained that he'd been trying to buy vaccine for his birds since September, but the government blocked its import. There's debate among health experts as to whether current vaccines would have halted the spread of this particular strain of the virus - viruses are prolific multipliers, which also makes them prolific mutators. Even when you have the will and the money to do business, the Indonesian government can still finds ways to block you.

While we eat our cumi instead of chicken, for others the menu never changes.

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