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Truce with rebels would give Yangon junta
a boost
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK
- An official ceasefire agreement between Myanmar's
military leaders and rebels with the Karen National
Union (KNU), which may only be weeks away, promises to
give Yangon a key publicity victory.
The KNU is
the largest and most significant ethnic group that has
been waging a guerrilla war - for 55 years now - against
the military government. Yangon, for its part, has long
been anxious to negotiate ceasefire agreements with
rebel groups.
The KNU and the Myanmar regime are
planning to meet again in the next few weeks, probably
in Pa'an, the capital of Karen state, which borders
Thailand. A formal peace agreement may be reached at
that meeting.
The turning point in peace
negotiations came in mid-January, when the KNU military
leader General Bo Mya went to Yangon and agreed in
principle to a peace deal with Myanmar Prime Minister
General Khin Nyunt. "But there'll have to be many more
meetings before there is a formal arrangement," said
Karen spokesman David Taw after returning to Bangkok on
January 22.
Until now the Karen rebels have been
labeled bandits and terrorists, but Khin Nyunt even
hosted a birthday party for Bo Mya in Yangon.
Resolving the ethnic rebellions has been a
crucial part of the military government's claim to
legitimacy. It is also a central part of Khin Nyunt's
plans for "national reconciliation", as the regime
describes its proposed political reform.
"Peace
talks between Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and General Bo
Mya clearly show that the Burmese leaders are pushing
ahead with their process of national reconciliation,"
said Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai after
meeting with the Karen leader on his return to Bangkok.
"It shows that Khin Nyunt is seriously moving forward
with his roadmap," he added in an interview.
The
Myanmar government is keen that all ethnic groups, which
have a long history of chafing at Yangon's rule, should
participate in the National Convention due to be
reconvened this year to draw up a new constitution. This
is the first step in the prime minister's seven-stage
roadmap to democracy.
For the KNU's part, the
ceasefire may well be a recognition of the toll war has
taken. Its headquarters fell nearly a decade ago and it
no longer has the same support from the Thai military,
which had been keen to see it form a buffer zone with
Myanmar.
More than 120,000 Karen live in camps
along the Thai border and some 200,000 are believed to
be internally displaced, driven away by what dissidents
and human-rights activists say are military campaigns by
Yangon's armed forces.
If the KNU enters into a
peace pact, the handful of other ethnic rebel groups
still fighting are likely to follow. The Karenni (the
Karenni National Progressive Party or KNPP) and the Chin
(Chin National Front or CNF) are already discussing a
truce with Yangon through intermediaries.
More
than 20 ethnic rebel groups and factions already have
ceasefire agreements with Yangon. The first were
negotiated in 1989, including one with the Wa (United Wa
State Party), which has the most powerful military wing,
with more than 20,000 armed troops under its command.
These peace deals are informal arrangements with
no signed agreements. However, rebels with the Kachin
ethnic group, the Kachin Independence Organization
(KIO), were an exception and signed a formal ceasefire
agreement with the local military commander after they
successfully negotiated their truce in 1994.
For
years the issue of a possible ceasefire agreement with
Myanmar's generals has caused division and resentment
within the KNU. There has been intermittent contact
between the two sides for the past 10 years. Prior to
the latest initiative, the last real talks between the
two sides took place in 1996.
But communication
channels have remained open between Khin Nyunt as the
military intelligence chief and Bo Mya. For instance,
the Myanmar leader has continued regularly to send a
bottle of special fish sauce only available in Yangon to
the Karen military leader, say Myanmar military
intelligence officials.
In recent months, Bo Mya
has seized the initiative. He sent a personal delegation
to Yangon in mid-December to explore a possible
ceasefire. At the time this was not well received within
the KNU, especially among the political wing of the
organization and some senior Karen military commanders.
But in the last few weeks, the Karen have united
behind the initiative and agreed upon a strategy for
continued talks with the Myanmar regime.
Their
priorities are the negotiation of a ceasefire agreement,
setting up a process of monitoring infringements of the
truce, and deciding how to deal with the "internally
displaced people" in Karen state that number more than a
quarter of a million, according to aid workers along the
Thailand-Myanmar border.
The Myanmar government
has already informally invited the KNU to participate in
the national convention. However, Taw said, "The KNU
will only decide on that after a formal agreement on a
ceasefire."
For Khin Nyunt, getting the Karen
involved in the National Convention would be crucial.
All the other ceasefire groups have already pledged
their willingness to participate. But most of these
groups have privately urged the regime to include the
ethnic groups still waging armed struggle, especially
the Karen, and declare a nationwide ceasefire.
It would seem that this may have helped motivate
Khin Nyunt's latest overtures to the KNU, though the
Thai government has also been urging Yangon to resolve
the remaining conflicts, particularly with the KNU.
But as Khin Nyunt tries to ensure that all the
ethnic groups participate in the National Convention,
the date of its reconvening may be further delayed.
"It will start some time in 2004" is all the
military intelligence officer in charge of preparations
would tell the visiting Karen delegation. That runs
counter to previous hints from Myanmar Foreign Minister
Win Aung that it should begin its deliberations in the
first few months of this year.
"The National
Convention will start soon," said Surakiart, "now that
the Karen are on board."
(Inter Press
Service)
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