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Signs of movement on
Myanmar
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung's
remarks that dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be
freed soon and that his country's constitution-writing
process will be restarted have raised hopes for positive
developments, but there is little real evidence yet of
genuine progress in Myanmar's political deadlock.
"Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to
meet other members of her party and conduct normal
political activities before the national convention
convenes," Win Aung told journalists at a weekend
regional meeting in the southern Thai city of Phuket.
"I cannot say exactly when the national
convention will start, but I can say it will be in 2004,
and it won't be late in the year," said Win Aung. But he
hinted strongly that it would probably be held in June
or July. Win Aung also privately told his Thai
counterpart, Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai,
that the convention would start some time in June,
according to Thai officials.
But the skepticism
that greets his statements if also reflected in remarks
by some diplomats. As one senior Asian diplomat in
Yangon said, "If the Burmese [Myanmar] regime really
wants us to believe them, it's time for deeds, not just
words."
At the same time, there may be some
further tentative steps in the direction of change in
the next few weeks. For instance, two more senior
members of Suu Kyi's party, the National League for
Democracy - U Aung Shwe and U Lwin, who are currently
under house arrest - may be freed. The other senior
member of the NLD leadership - U Tin Oo - may be
transferred to Yangon from the prison in which he is
being held at in the northwest of the country.
Win Aung also said Suu Kyi's political party,
which won the majority of the votes in the election,
will be allowed to function normally and to reopen its
offices in the lead-up to opening of the national
convention. This is all part of the ongoing
confidence-building between the two sides in preparation
for the start of the convention, according to the
foreign minister.
In August, Myanmar Prime
Minister General Khin Nyunt announced plans to reconvene
the national convention to draw up the guidelines for a
new constitution when he outlined his seven-stage
"roadmap to multi-party democracy". The national
convention is the first stage of this process.
"Everyone, including the political parties, will
be involved in the political process through the
National Convention," said Win Aung. "There is no
foundation for the exclusion of the National League for
Democracy - it is still a legal political party," he
said.
But because the NLD walked out of the
convention in November 1995, Myanmar's military leaders
insist it is up to the party to ask to be return to the
convention.
For weeks, Myanmar government
officials have been hinting that the government is
talking to Suu Kyi, including discussing participating
in the national convention. Pro-democracy activists in
Yangon, though, dismiss this suggestion.
"We
working on creating a good atmosphere between us," said
Win Aung. "Before we fought, now we talk," he added. But
he declined to reveal what the two sides were discussing
or whom the opposition leader was meeting from the
government.
"There is good, regular contact
between Aung San Suu Kyi and the Burmese government,"
said Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Sihasak
Phuangketkeow.
Last month, the Thai foreign
minister told journalists that the level of contact
between two sides had recently been raised
significantly. "It is no longer the military liaison
officer Brigadier-General Than Tun," Surakiart said. It
seems certain now that the deputy head of military
intelligence, Major-General Kyaw Win, is conducting the
talks with Suu Kyi. He met her for the first time in the
middle of December, according to Myanmar military
sources.
Since then, he and the education
minister are believed to have continued to meet her -
though not regularly. Diplomats in Yangon believe this
may mean that the country's top leader, Senior General
Than Shwe, is taking a closer interest in the national
reconciliation process, as both men are known to be
loyal to him.
Diplomats dealing with Yangon
throughout the region are cautious about the extent of
contact between the two sides. "The Burmese generals are
obviously on a charm offensive again," said an Asian
diplomat who deals with Myanmar, known as Burma before
the junta officially renamed it in 1989. "Win Aung's
performance in Phuket [at the summit meeting of South
and Southeast Asian countries] - talking freely to
journalists and giving the impression that there is
movement on the political front - is all part of that
strategy."
"The generals are past masters at
creating a sense that there is movement when nothing is
actually happening," said a diplomat based in Yangon.
"It's in their [the generals'] interest to make the
international community believe that there are serious
talks going on between with them and Aung San Suu Kyi.
"The reality, though, may be quite different - what is
needed is independent verification of the contact
between the two sides," he added.
United Nations
envoy Razali Ismail is anxious to return to Myanmar to
try to facilitate talks between the two sides. During an
international meeting of Asian and European ministers on
Myanmar in December, there was a clear understanding
that Razali was an essential catalyst in the country's
reconciliation process and that he should return as soon
as possible. Two months later, Razali is still waiting
for permission to visit Yangon.
"We are working
on a date - in principle he can visit - we are not
denying him permission to visit," Win Aung told
journalists after meeting with the UN envoy in Thailand
over the weekend. "Although we have not set a date, he
should be visiting not so long from now."
"Thailand
and the UN envoy are working closely together on Burma -
their efforts are mutually reinforcing each other," said
Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow
after the Thai foreign minister met with the UN envoy.
Thailand is working on convening another international
forum on Myanmar of Asian and European ministers, known
as the Bangkok Process.
"The issue is, should it
be held before there is significant progress in the
national reconciliation process or afterwards?"
Surakiart said recently.
Now Thailand has
indicated that it will only host such a meeting when
there has been some real progress. "We hope to hold the
next Bangkok meeting by the middle of this year,"
Sihasak told journalists in Phuket. "But this is subject
to some positive development."
(Inter Press
Service)
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