COMMENT Why Indonesia should
influence Iran By Paulo Gorjao
The recent news coming out of Tehran should be a
cause of concern in Jakarta. Iran seems set on a
collision course with the United States, and Indonesia
could - and should - influence the Islamic republic on
to a more moderate path.
First, the
parliamentary election results announced by the Iranian
government confirmed that religious conservatives had
made significant gains. Hardline opponents of President
Mohammad Khatami won an overwhelming majority, bringing
their total to 156 in the 290-seat assembly. Earlier,
reformists had dismissed the ballot as illegitimate,
since some 2,000 candidates were prevented from running,
including 87 reformists standing for re-election. Rather
than making progress toward the harmonization of
democracy and Islam, then, Iran seems to be moving
further away.
Second, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' nuclear
watchdog, says Iran has continued to hide technology and
research that could be linked to a weapons program,
despite its declaration last October that it had no more
secrets to divulge. The US envoy to the IAEA, Kenneth
Brill, immediately seized the opportunity to say that
this behavior strengthens Washington's assessment that
Iran's nuclear program is clearly geared toward building
atomic bombs.
These two events - an apparently
stalled transition to democracy and the intent of
possessing weapons of mass destruction - are not going
down well in the United States. Thus, another US
military intervention in Middle East after the
presidential elections late this year should not be
ruled out if Iran persists in raising suspicions in
Washington.
Jakarta has close political
relations with Tehran, going back to Suharto's
authoritarian regime in Indonesia. In November 1993,
Suharto visited Tehran (the first visit by an Indonesian
leader since the 1979 revolution in Iran). This was
followed by a return visit by Iranian president Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Indonesia's transition to
democracy in May 1998 did not constrain diplomatic
relations with Iran. The bilateral relationship
continued to be smooth even during the most turbulent
moments. For instance, in September 1999, Tehran
supported Jakarta during the crisis in East Timor.
There was no public criticism from Iran either
when then-president Abdurrahman Wahid stated in October
1999 that Indonesia could establish economic relations
with Israel. During a visit to Jakarta, in February
2000, Iran's foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, made it
quite clear that he had no intention of allowing
Tehran's foreign policy toward Israel and Indonesia to
affect each other.
Among Wahid's top priorities
was pulling Indonesia out of the economic crisis, as
well as strengthening Indonesia's integrity. Kharrazi's
visit to Jakarta was an opportunity to boost economic
relations between both countries, while Wahid's visit to
Tehran, in June 2000, was one more step toward
safeguarding Indonesia's territorial integrity.
Complying with Jakarta's wishes, Tehran stated that
Irian Jaya (West Papua) was an inalienable part of
Indonesia.
In February 2003, Indonesian
President Megawati Sukarnoputri attended the Developing
Eight (D-8) Summit in Tehran, and held bilateral talks
with Khatami, as well as with Iranian Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khameini.
It is true that Tehran
is not - and never has been - a top priority in
Indonesia's foreign policy, and the opposite is also
true. Jakarta and Tehran are too distant geographically,
and economic bilateral relations are quite low so far.
Still, Indonesia and Iran are two of the most important
Muslim countries in the world, and they both belong to
several multilateral institutions, such as the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), the Organization of the
Islamic Conference (OIC), and the D-8.
Moreover,
another US military intervention in a Muslim country
would certainly be a disrupting domestic issue in
Indonesia that it could not ignore. In such a scenario,
prospects for large anti-US manifestations should not be
ruled out. More important, radical Muslims in Indonesia
would benefit from this and domestic social turmoil
could take place, including new bombings perpetrated by
Muslim terrorists.
As a way to forestall such
events, it makes sense for Indonesia to actively support
Iran's transition to democracy, and to persuade Tehran
to disclose its nuclear plans fully. Thus Jakarta should
send a special envoy to Tehran to express its concerns
at the highest levels.
Tehran's current path is
not viable in the long run. Indonesia, in concert with
the United States and the European Union, should help
Iranian hardliners understand this. The sooner they
grasp the full implications of the post-Cold War reality
the better for everyone.
Paulo Gorjao
is a senior lecturer at Lusiada University,
Portugal, and editor of the forthcoming book Double
Transition in East Timor: Consolidation of Sovereignty
and Democracy.
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