Malaysia: Seven days is all it
takes By Anil Netto
PENANG,
Malaysia - Seven days - that's all there are for
Malaysia's political parties to campaign for the
country's 11th general election. This Saturday, March
13, is nomination day, when all parties are supposed to
name their candidates for the various federal parliament
and state assembly seats. Polling day is fixed for March
21.
The constitution provides for elections to
be held within 60 days after the dissolution of
parliament, which occurred on March 4. But Malaysia's
Election Commission, nominally independent, has
consistently bowed to the ruling coalition's desire for
the shortest of campaign periods, and that's exactly
what this is. Scheduled for only 18 days from when
parliament was dissolved, this year's election period is
the shortest in Malaysia's history.
It is to the
ruling coalition's advantage to have a short campaign
period. Most of the mainstream electronic and print
media are either government-owned or belong to firms and
individuals friendly to ruling-coalition parties, which
means they have plenty of access to media coverage, and
therefore need less time to promote their campaigns. The
ruling coalition's preference for a short campaign
period also indicates its lingering nervousness despite
its show of confidence. Analysts say it fears that a
longer campaign period would allow the opposition
parties, currently denied meaningful access to the
media, to reach out to more people on the ground ahead
of the polls via rallies and leafleting.
The
Election Commission chairman contended that there is a
"need to form a new government quick enough" and to
ensure "there are no uncertainties that could threaten
the safety of people". These arguments, however, have
been slammed by election monitoring groups.
It's
all a sharp contrast from the years just before and
after the country's independence in 1957. Even during
the so-called Emergency years of the 1950s, at the
height of the communist insurgency, the campaign period
for the 1955 general election was 43 days. In 1959, 1964
and 1969 the campaign period lasted 35 days. Despite
security concerns during the "Confrontation" between
Malaysia and Indonesia, and the turbulent political era
in the 1960s, the campaign periods then were lengthy by
today's standards. The joke going around is that if the
trend of having ever-shorter campaigns continues, there
will come a time when the campaign period will be only
24 hours.
Questions have also been raised over
over what appears to be the Election Commission's
arbitrary re-drawing of constituency boundaries that
seem to favor the ruling coalition.
The states
in the Malay heartland - such as Kedah, Perlis and
Pahang, apart from opposition-controlled Kelantan and
Terengganu on the east coast - are set to be major
electoral battlegrounds that pit the ruling Barisan
Nasional (BN), on the one side, against opposition
parties Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Keadilan on the
other.
Analysts have pointed out that blocs of
voters in some areas in Kedah state, for instance, have
been shifted out of parliamentary constituencies where
the BN is strong, to constituencies where PAS won by
wafer-thin majorities in the 1999 general election. This
is likely to affect the chances of several PAS big names
who are contesting in Kedah.
The integrity of
the electoral rolls has also been called into question.
According to a study commissioned by the election
watchdog Malaysians for Free and Fair Elections
(Mafrel), there is a strong possibility of "phantom
voters" in the electoral rolls as of last September (the
latest rolls are updated through last December). The
study, conducted in February, covered three different
constituencies: one in Kuala Lumpur, one in the
east-coast state of Kelantan and the third in the
central state of Selangor.
The study found that
142 voters were registered at a single address in Kuala
Lumpur, which turned out to be a small run-down wooden
shop whose owners denied any knowledge of the voters. In
another two cases, 156 and 120 voters respectively were
registered at addresses that were later found to be
non-existent.
Apart from doubts over the rolls,
the ruling coalition has maintained unlimited access to
media coverage as well as campaign spending at the
national level - so much so that its candidates at the
local level do not have to worry about raising much
money for their campaigns.
This is especially
true this year, as the ruling coalition appears to be
relying on the drawing power of Prime Minister Abdullah
Badawi. The BN is obviously hoping that the fact that
Malaysia has a new premier after 22 years of
temperamental rule by Mahathir Mohamad will entice some
disgruntled voters to opt for the new administration.
Thus, posters across the country have appeared bearing
the face of Abdullah Badawi instead of the photos of
local candidates, though the latter are likely to appear
once candidates' identities are confirmed on nomination
day.
So far the campaign has been devoid of real
issues in the mainstream media. When and if it does
address these issues, the ruling coalition is likely to
bank on its record of economic growth, interracial
harmony and stability. But some analysts would disagree,
arguing that the Mahathir era was often shaken by
political turbulence - from the crisis over the
judiciary in 1988 to the constitutional crises when
Mahathir took on the monarchs in the early 1990s to the
political crisis in 1998, when deputy premier Anwar
Ibrahim was ousted and jailed.
As such, Abdullah
has come into office riding on a wave of expectations
for reforms and change. He has promised to campaign
against corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency. He
also set up a royal commission to review the operations
of the police.
At the moment, his
anti-corruption crusade has ground to a halt - but there
is still time for a few dramatic announcements ahead of
polling day. The royal commission on the police has
since receded to the background and some critics say it
is likely to end up in the same boat as Suhakam, the
government-appointed national human-rights commission
that lacks real bite or ability to bring about
meaningful reforms.
The opposition parties have
problems of their own. Their inability to come together
on a common platform to restore democracy and safeguard
human rights has sharply eroded their chances of making
further inroads since 1999. These differences are
heightened by PAS's determination to campaign for a
conservative Islamic state - which could alienate some
non-Muslim voters who might otherwise vote for the
opposition. And it remains to be seen whether PAS ally
Keadilan, which has projected itself as a multi-ethnic
party with significant Chinese support, would suffer
through its association with PAS.
Whether the
opposition parties can at least agree on putting up a
single candidate in all seats to avoid splitting the
votes for the opposition remains unclear. So far, it
looks likely that in some constituencies, more than one
opposition candidate will contest, and this will only
play into the hands of the ruling coalition.
It
is not as if the opposition parties don't have issues
that can capture the interest of voters. For all of
Malaysia's prosperity, income inequalities here are
among the highest in the region. Abdullah Badawi has not
relaxed tight controls on the press nor repealed
repressive legislation. The judiciary remains unchanged,
Anwar is still in jail and several of his top Keadilan
colleagues have been disqualified from contesting this
month's general elections. Moreover, the news that
Abdullah's son was involved with a firm that produced
parts that could be used in building nuclear weapons
could also be exploited.
Though PAS might be the
BN's short-term threat, the ruling coalition continues
to cast a wary eye on Keadilan, which is trying to
position itself as a third force in Malaysian politics.
Still, all said and done, the BN is likely to triumph
with its commanding two-thirds majority intact. The only
real question is whether the opposition can do any
better than they did in the reformasi-charged
polls in 1999.
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