KUALA
LUMPUR - Amid a collective euphoric sigh, both Malaysian
and foreign pundits hailed the ruling coalition's
parliamentary and state electorate rout here last week
as a victory of moderation, "setting Malaysia on a
confident new course". The results, we are told, spell
out what is in the hearts and minds of Malaysia's Muslim
majority: that they seek a progressive form of Islam
while rejecting the atavistic draconian tenets of the
opposition Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS); and that they
are putting their trust in new Prime Minister Abdullah
Badawi to see them through.
True. In a way. But
how much can a single election result reveal -
particularly in Malaysia, which since the economic
crisis has in many ways embarked on a long quest for
answers, identity and direction in the Muslim community?
Indeed, the March 21 election results are an
extension of that quest, as was PAS's success in the
1999 elections, which is now known to have been merely a
protest vote against then-prime minister Mahathir
Mohamad's arrogance, profligate spending, neglect of
corruption and the brutal sacking and jailing of his
popular deputy Anwar Ibrahim.
"Muslims are
concerned with spiritual values," said Andrew Tan of the
Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
"Badawi and [his party, the United Malays National
Organization, or UMNO] have been given a chance not to
carry on as before but to effect real changes and to
bring about a clean, equitable form of government and
development that is consistent with Muslim values."
Abdullah, banking on that chance, has promised
to tackle corruption and inefficiency and give higher
priority to small businesses and agriculture. Failure to
follow through quickly on those promises, and for the
UMNO - widely associated with corruption and dysfunction
- to reform itself could bring opposition support back
in a big way. Such failure would appear un-Islamic, the
equivalent of political suicide here.
That the
ruling coalition Barisan Nasional (BN), of which UMNO is
the dominant party, scored well in the only
PAS-controlled states of Kelantan and Terengganu -
winning back Terengganu and nearly wrestling away
Kelantan - suggests at first glance that even deeply
religious Malays care more about economic progress than
the strict application of Muslim principles. But this
just isn't so and can be understood by looking at the
UMNO's stated commitments to Islam on the campaign
trail. During his election run, Abdullah stressed that
Malaysia already is an Islamic state, a declaration
Mahathir made in 2001. And Abdullah's deputy Najib Razak
told voters that UMNO did not reject the application of
hudud, a stated aim of PAS.
Malays will
continue to demand - and with their 60 percent majority
will likely get - an Islamic-oriented government. But
what they demand within the context of Islam, and where
they place their allegiances, are less certain.
Accusations of gerrymandering, voter fraud and
manipulation of the media by the ruling coalition will
help the opposition preserve its core constituency -
nothing like a sense of indignation to keep a movement
afloat.
Meanwhile, ostensibly disrespectful
attitudes toward Islam, both within Malaysia (the
insular, economically minded Chinese accuse the Malays
of treating the Chinese as second-class citizens and are
conspicuously absent from the police force and many
National Day celebrations) and without (from the
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq to the occupation of
Palestine and Western foreign policy), will keep
pressure high on the BN to protect and promote Islamic
values.
PAS will need to rethink its hardline
stance if it is to win back voters, but at the same
time, the BN must understand that its 90-percent support
in the parliamentary elections is a matter of hope
rather than trust. The lopsidedness of the victory
suggests consensus - but the consensus is little more
than a consensus to wait and see.
In truth, the
BN's landslide victory was unexpected, capturing the
attention of many and imbuing moderate-minded observers
with a sense of optimism - for Malaysia as well as the
region. Some now wonder whether the results might impact
next Monday's parliamentary elections in neighboring
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation.
Kevin O'Rourke, author of Reformasi: The
Struggle for Power in Post-Soeharto Indonesia, says
the average Indonesian is probably not informed enough
to be very influenced by Malaysia's election results.
However, "the parties themselves might take note.
Perhaps Islamic parties will draw the lesson that they
must deliver the goods to avoid setbacks - ie, their
growth is not an inexorable upward trend ordained by
heaven."
As with PAS in the past, several
Islamic parties in Indonesia are proving successful at
capitalizing on voter disenchantment. One of them is the
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which this week drew
100,000 supporters, the largest crowd in Indonesia's
election campaign so far this year.
According to
O'Rourke, part of PKS's appeal is that it emphasizes
social justice and equality - a message both the PAS and
BN have been peddling for some time now. Carrying
through has proved another matter, though, and it is
what will keep Malaysian voters searching for answers.
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