Is Suu Kyi pondering a deal with Yangon
generals? By Larry
Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's military rulers and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi may be about to agree
to work together on the country's political future,
after Yangon announced this week that a National
Convention to draft a new constitution will convene in
May.
After a nine-year suspension, the National
Convention, which has been identified as a key step in
the Southeast Asian country's "roadmap" to democratic
change, will reconvening on May 17. In the next two
weeks, invitation letters will be sent to all of the
convention's participants, including all of Myanmar's
political parties, Lieutenant General Thein Sein, the
military commander in charge of the National Convention,
announced on Myanmar domestic television on Tuesday.
But at present, it is unclear what role, if any,
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her political
party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will
have in the process. Suu Kyi remains under house arrest
where she was placed last May 30, after an attack on her
and her party in Depayin, blamed on pro-government
thugs.
The announcement of the convention's
reconvening has caught most Yangon-based diplomats and
seasoned observers by surprise. "The fact that it was
announced on local television seems to suggest that it
was aimed at the domestic constituency rather than
posturing for the international audience," an Asian
diplomat in Yangon said. "It emphasizes the importance
of the National Convention in the national
reconciliation process and now means that Aung San Suu
Kyi's release is less significant."
However, other diplomats say that Suu Kyi's release is
now more pressing than ever. "It is now essential that
Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders are
released immediately, party offices reopened, and that the NLD
and other political parties and groups are able
to operate freely," said a diplomat in Yangon on
condition of anonymity.
According to
officials in Myanmar, these are all things that could
well happen in the coming weeks. "Aung San Suu Kyi will
be fully free, able to meet other members of her party
and conduct normal political activities before the
National Convention convenes," Myanmar Foreign Minister
Win Aung told journalists on the Thai island resort of
Phuket in February. "The NLD will also be allowed to
reopen their offices before the convention gets under
way."
But in order for this to happen, it seems
likely that the regime will attempt to strike a deal
with the opposition leader - if it hasn't already done
so. "We are working on creating a good atmosphere
between us," said Win Aung. "Before we fought, now we
talk."
There is no doubt that Myanmar's rulers
have been talking to Suu Kyi while she has been under
house arrest. Since December, Suu Kyi has been meeting
once a month with a delegation comprised of the deputy
military intelligence chief, Major General Kyaw Win,
regarded as close to the top military leader Senior
General Than Shwe; Home Minister Colonel Tin Hlaing, a
supporter of Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt; and
military intelligence liaison officer Brigadier General
Than Tun.
The talks have been described as
"frank and open" - often code words for "tough" -
according to military intelligence sources. Discussions
have covered the government's fear that the opposition
leader is a pawn of the West to Suu Kyi's support for
international sanctions against the Myanmar regime.
The triumvirate is believed to have met with her
most recently in the past week or so, according to
Yangon-based diplomats. And some say this may have been
when an agreement between Suu Kyi and the military top
brass may have been reached.
"There must have
been a deal struck during those talks on the NLD's
participation in the National Convention," said a senior
Western diplomat. "It is possible that she [Suu Kyi]
also sent a letter to Senior General Than Shwe pledging
the NLD's commitment to the government's national
reconciliation," he added.
But that is unlikely
unless the government promised during those talks to
change the procedural rules of the National Convention
and allow a free debate on the principles upon which
Myanmar's new constitution is to be based.
Previously, everything had been tightly
controlled by the government-appointed committee that
oversaw the convention's proceedings. All speeches had
to be submitted to the censors, and no impromptu
interventions from the floor were allowed.
Meanwhile, pro-democracy activists outside
Myanmar have dismissed suggestions that Suu Kyi has
reached a deal with the regime.
And while
speculation continues to circulate, what is certain is
that she is unlikely to have agreed to anything without
meeting with the rest of the NLD's central executive
committee, several of whom also are under house arrest.
"As yet we have not met our leader," said one of NLD's
leaders who was released late last year. "I really wish
we had; we are desperate to see her," he said.
But according to an Asian diplomat who closely
follows developments in Myanmar, a secret meeting
between Suu Kyi and some of the other NLD leaders has
indeed taken place. Of course, this does not necessarily
mean that a deal has been reached at this stage - just
that Suu Kyi may be seriously considering a compromise
with the regime.
If this is the case, the next
step the pro-democracy leader takes will certainly
involve a meeting with the rest of the NLD leadership
and probably a later meeting with Prime Minister General
Khin Nyunt to seal any agreement.
In any event,
talk of meetings, agreements and compromises on issues
such as political cooperation are escalating rapidly,
and to many people's surprise. While there had been
growing signs in Yangon of Suu Kyi's release after the
mid-April Water Festival celebrations for the Myanmar
new year, there had been little evidence that the
convention was about to start its work any time soon.
In fact, Foreign Minister Win Aung reportedly
told his Thai counterpart, Surakiart Sathirathai, when
they met in Phuket in February that the convention would
start in September.
However, a decision to bump
up the convention may have been prompted by the
international community, particularly United Nations
envoy Razali Ismail. According to UN officials, Razali
told General Khin Nyunt during his trip to Myanmar in
early March that the international community would find
it unacceptable for the convention to start after the
May anniversary of Suu Kyi's detention.
In
addition, during the retreat of Southeast Asian foreign
ministers a few weeks ago, Surakiart again pressed Win
Aung on convening the convention as soon as possible -
preferably April - and urged the Myanmar government to
consider releasing Suu Kyi as soon as possible. One, or
both of these actions are regarded as a prerequisite for
the next meeting of the Thai-sponsored "Bangkok Process"
leading to political reform in Myanmar. It is scheduled
to convene in late April.
But it seems it may
have been the strong urging of the Chinese deputy prime
minister, Wu Yi, who has just been to Yangon, that may
have persuaded Myanmar's top ruler Than Shwe to allow
the prime minister to take what many hope is the first
real step in the government's "roadmap" to democracy.
