Thailand's
tinderbox: Foreign links feared
By David Fullbrook
BANGKOK - Troops are on the march, militants are assassinating and bombing,
dimming hopes for a quick return of peace to the rubber estates, oil-palm
plantations and rice paddies of southern Thailand's troubled Muslim
borderlands. It seems only a matter of time before this spiraling conflict
brings screams and tears to Bangkok.
Attacks on security forces have not diminished since the Krue Se uprising in
which 107 raiders died last Wednesday. There is more to come. "From some of the
confessions of the last week, we know more attacks are planned," said Dr
Panitan Wattanayagorn, a former Thai national-security adviser hailing from the
south.
General Kitti Rattanachaya, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's security
adviser, calls Krue Se the first salvo in a campaign by local rebels and
regional militants against the government, reports say. Over at the Foreign
Ministry, meanwhile, diplomats are certain the unrest remains a local
non-sectarian affair. It's a disturbing contradiction.
"The Foreign Ministry is probably right in saying there is no international
connection. But they say it not because they know, but because they want to
calm the international stage," said a senior Western diplomat in Bangkok. "The
military is saying the wrong thing, in my view, because they want to justify
the pro-conflict position."
That violence has escalated is not surprising. Minor attacks increased markedly
in 2002 after Thaksin's government, believing an earlier rebellion had run out
of steam, disbanded the Southern Border Administration Center, a successful
civil-military command that bottled a bout of violent separatist agitation.
Cooperation among civil, community, intelligence, military and police agencies
crumbled, giving way to rivalry and jealousy among the uniforms. While they
were eyeing one another, and against a backdrop of terrorism worldwide in
Islam's name coupled with firebrands identifying a new crusade against Muslims,
separatists returned.
"It does seem the traditional separatist groups have found new ways of
operating, [have found] new allies, or broken into splinter groups," said
Panitan. "These things take time to arise - it doesn't happen in a few days."
Grumpy adolescents, government deafness to concerns of southern Muslim
concerns, and rage at unsolved murders of respected people during last year's
"drug war" have given rebels fertile ground. Beneath that lies a century pocked
with occasional failed rebellions and instances of government abuse, such as
the horrible red-drum murders of suspected southern communists in the 1970s -
Thai security forces arrested people thought to be communist sympathizers,
interrogated them, then executed them by placing them in an empty red oil drum,
beneath which was another red oil drum in which a roaring fire was lit.
Villagers fled into the jungle for months at a time.
"Even in the most tolerant societies, resentment can linger for decades. Why
should the Muslims in southern Thailand be any different?" asked the diplomat.
It's not enough to turn the majority against the state, but it is something to
work with. "There is an extremely bad relationship between the authorities and
the people," said the diplomat.
Echoed Panitan: "Police tactics have created more unhappy people."
The winds of war may favor the militants as growing numbers of troops and
police raise the odds that more atrocities or mistakes will be committed. If
the military is not careful, droves of peaceful Muslim Thais could start
tacitly supporting militants, providing the widespread support they now lack.
Disappearances, more than 100 during the past six months, including
high-profile human-rights lawyer Somchai Neelahphaijit, aggressive policing and
extrajudicial killings are sorely testing their loyalty.
Indeed, Krue Se may well have been a gambit to discredit the authorities and
provoke ire, locally and overseas. "I think the masterminds were aware of the
government's preparations. By sacrificing so many people they attempted to
internationalize the conflict," said Panitan.
Panitan reckons that in the absence of red-handed evidence some rebel
commanders will be hard to tackle, as they are highly respected, influential
district officers successful at fundraising, garnering donations from overseas
and vote-seeking members of parliament.
A Pyrrhic victory may be what the government won at Krue Se. Militants scored
headlines worldwide, human-rights defenders are still screaming, and advocates
of dialogue were shoved aside by proponents of a robust military response,
running a very real risk of innocents being killed. "The conflict-oriented
approach of Thaksin is the exact opposite of what you want to achieve. It is
clearly counterproductive," said the diplomat.
Dialogue's flag-bearer, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, the deputy prime
minister and internal-security chief credited with ending Thailand's communist
insurgency in the late 1970s with an amnesty and negotiations, lost
responsibility for quelling the current situation after recalling his deputy
General Panlop Pinmanee for storming the Krue Se Mosque against orders. Vocal
backing from Thaksin and Defense Minister General Chettha Thanajaro soon
drowned out initial criticism of Panlop.
Yet it is not all brawn and no brain. Among troops headed south is the 1st
Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, an experienced, professional unit that earned
its peacekeeping spurs in East Timor. Police not suited for delicate
counter-insurgency operations that succeed by winning hearts and minds rather
than putting bullets in the right bodies are going to be replaced, says
Panitan.
Such rotations cannot happen fast enough, particularly as business confidence
is taking a knock. Thai stocks fell on news of the Krue Se uprising. Foreigners
have taken notice. "Foreign investors are very concerned, but they still have
confidence in the government in dealing with problem," said Panitan after
meeting with executives in Singapore.
They, like the humble rubber tappers, rice farmers and fisherfolk of the
southern borderlands, along with anxious politicians are waiting to see what
emerges from the thickening fog of war. One thing seems as close as anything to
certain, said Panitan: "It will get worse before it gets better."
Worse not just for the innocents caught in the crossfire and the parents of
combatants. "The conflict pattern, the government's heavy-handedness, is
heading for a serious local conflict. We will be lucky if it can be contained
there," said the Western diplomat.
Islamic fundamentalists or separatists seeking to re-establish a Pattani state,
the military breathing down their necks, are expected to lash out with a
spectacular raid or bombing in Bangkok or Phuket, shredding the government's
credibility, hurting the economy and scaring away tourists.
"These people may get on a pickup truck and drive to Patpong [a Bangkok
district thick with visitors]. They may have nothing against foreigners, but if
they can kill a few hundred it will hit the government hard," said the
diplomat.
A change in tactics is a major worry. "Exploding bombs in crowded areas could
be the next step. Their larger cells may be converted into smaller cells, ready
for suicide attacks," said Panitan.
Krue Se may well be a turning point, marking the emergence of a
separatist-religious campaign. Unlike the January arms heist, a focused
attacked executed by experienced, well-informed "contractors" working for
organized crime or mischief-making politicians, this suicidal assault struck 10
targets simultaneously, using untrained, comically armed cannon fodder.
"The structure of the attacks is quite impressive. It is similar to other
groups in the Philippines and Indonesia, but they are not as effective yet.
They have certain linkages through religious foundations and schools," said
Panitan.
Just how deep links with Muslim insurgents elsewhere in Southeast Asia run is
unclear, but casual links cannot be written off. More formal links may not
exist yet, but they will fuse if this conflict is not cooled very soon.
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