Promiscuity and unholy alliances in
Indonesia By Bill Guerin
JAKARTA - "I see a great degree of promiscuity
in Indonesian politics. Anyone can get married to
anybody." That is how Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a former
adviser to Indonesia's third president, B J Habibie,
describes the drive by candidates in the July
presidential election to form "unholy alliances of
secular and religious parties".
Meanwhile, in
parliamentary elections, whose final tally was announced
last week, a sweeping movement for change has led to one
of the most unexpected election results in the country's
history. Golkar, formerly seen as corrupt and
authoritarian and thought to be past its sell-by date,
swept back into favor. The Indonesian Democratic Party
of Struggle (PDI-P), whose leader Megawati Sukarnoputri
was once perceived as a beacon of reformation, was
dumped en masse by voters in an election widely billed
as the second free and fair election for the nation
(after the first in 1999).
The Golkar party,
which former strongman Suharto formed in the 1960s as
his political instrument of rule, was last Wednesday
declared the official winner of this year's elections.
From a final count of 113.4 million votes, Golkar won
21.6 percent of the poll, with the "ruling" party,
PDI-P, bringing up the rear with 18.53 percent, a drop
of 15 percentage points from its victory in 1999. Golkar
will get 128 seats in the 550-strong parliament and
PDI-P only 109, down sharply from the 153 it won in the
last election.
Under Suharto, stability and
prosperity were bought at the cost of civil liberties
and a dark history of human-rights abuses. This time
around, the party campaigned on basic economic and
social issues - jobs, education, better health care.
Suharto had delivered on all these until the regional
financial crisis blew away his New Order, or so it was
thought.
The current Megawati administration, on
the other hand, was seen to have failed to deliver on
promises of reform and had alienated many Muslim groups.
Voters could be forgiven, however, for musing
that Marquis de Flers Robert and Arman de Caillavet were
right when perceiving that "democracy is the name we
give the people whenever we need them".
There is
a dawning reality afoot as the public notes that, bereft
of proper policies, the interests of the political elite
lie only in securing power, with the aspirations of the
people coming a distant second. There is little, if any,
debate on substantive issues and even less evidence of
platforms or political ideologies for the long-term
benefit of the nation as a whole rather than the
privileged few.
Former presidential adviser
Anwar says the secular and religious parties are using
the vice-presidential slot to secure support in
parliament rather than stand on proper policy platforms.
This is not so surprising given that to secure a stable
government, the next president will need a high level of
support within the House of Representatives (DPR), which
must approve most government policies. A split DPR could
result in weak leadership and lead to continued
political uncertainty with a damaging effect on the
economy.
Hence the drive to enhance bargaining
positions and form party coalitions prior to the
presidential election on July 5, when about 148 million
voters will directly choose a president and vice
president in the country's first direct presidential
election. If no pair gets a majority, the poll will go
to a final-round runoff in September.
On
Thursday the first "unholy alliance" was consecrated
when President Megawati announced that she is running
for another term but this time, with a new
vice-presidential candidate, Hasyim Muzadi - chairman of
the country's largest Islamic organization, the
40-million-strong moderate group Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).
Over the weekend, however, the organization's
Council of Nine vetoed Muzadi's vice-presidential
candidacy and instead backed former president
Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.
Wahid, who has wide
influence in the NU, was thought to have the support of
most of the NU kyais (religious teachers) in
canvassing votes against Muzadi's candidacy, but scores
of other NU clerics on Sunday demanded that the NU
central board promptly issue an edict to those NU
members who were still confused about whom to vote for.
Little wonder, as the half-blind cleric, in
effect barred from the presidential race by a
controversial General Elections Commission (KPU) health
requirement, still plans to run for president and carry
the banner of the National Awakening Party (PKB) he
founded. PKB, in effect the political wing of the NU,
won the fifth-biggest chunk of votes, with 10.57
percent, giving it 52 seats in the new parliament and
lots of bargaining power for Wahid.
Wahid is
holding most of the cards. And his engineered overthrow
in July 2001 has returned to haunt many of those who
brought him down.
Golkar has chosen Suharto's
former military chief Wiranto to top the party's
presidential ticket and hopes to fill the
vice-presidential slot with Solahuddin Wahid, deputy
chief of the National Human Rights Commission (KOMNAS
HAM), which concluded in December 1999 that Wiranto had
been responsible for the bloodbath in East Timor three
months earlier. Solahuddin, deputy head of the NU, is a
brother of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid.
Though
Golkar chief Akbar Tanjung said on Monday that Wahid had
approved Solahuddin's vice-presidential bid with Golkar,
PKB deputy chairman Mahfud M D said, "If the KPU finally
disqualifies Gus Dur, only then will we endorse
Solahuddin Wahid as the running mate of Wiranto."
"Whoever wants to win can't free themselves of
Gus Dur," said political scientist Arbi Sanit.
National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman and
Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR)
Amien Rais can expect support from the leadership of the
country's second-largest Muslim organization,
Muhammadiyah.
Though PAN is a nationalist party,
a change in its statute to include a controversial
reference to piety (taqwa) was seen as an
indication it might be leaning toward Muslim groups.
Rais, however, said last year: "If I based my political
support only on Muslims, there is a foregone conclusion
that I will lose."
Onetime reformist Rais, who
claims to have the backing of Muhammadiyah, the
country's second-largest Islamic group with some 30
million members, on Sunday announced his running mate as
Siswono Yudhohusodo, who leads the Indonesian Farmers
Brotherhood Union (HKTI).
Siswono, who served as
a minister several times during the Suharto era, had
been nominated as a presidential candidate by a grouping
of several political parties, including the Islamic
Unity Party (PSI), before deciding to row in with Rais
"after a month of contemplation".
There are fears
that progress toward a strong civil society would be
thwarted should either of the two generals win power.
Even the incumbent president's party has expressed
concern about the rise of military figures as leading
presidential candidates, saying it could pose a threat
to democracy.
Yet Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
remains odds-on favorite in opinion polls. The birth of
his Democratic Party was a direct result of his failure
to become vice president during the Special Session of
the MPR in July 2001 that toppled Gus Dur. Nominated by
the Justice and Unity Party led by retired General Edi
Sudrajat, a former defense minister, Yudhoyono failed to
qualify for the final vote, losing out to Hamzah Haz and
Akbar Tanjung.
The lesson was quickly learned by
many generals: to be a national leader it is necessary
to have strong support from the parties or even to be a
leader in a major party.
A total of 8.45 million
people voted on April 5 for the Democratic Party, giving
it 7.45 percent of the total tally and 57 seats in the
DPR. The party's policies are similar to the platform of
the military itself: defending the independence and
sovereignty of the republic based on the state Pancasila
philosophy and the now-amended 1945 constitution.
Five parties - the United Development Party
(PPP), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Crescent Star
Party (PBB), Reform Star Party (PBR) and Indonesian
Nahdlatul Community Party (PPNUI) - are Islamic parties.
PKB and PAN, though Islamic-based, see themselves as
nationalist parties
The 1999 elections
highlighted the failure of Islamic parties to campaign
on the key issues. Altogether, the major Islamic parties
drew a third of the vote then. The focus was solely on
one issue - Islam. This year they dropped religious
issues from the campaigning and appealed to voters on
general issues such as corruption and the economy.
Ethnic and religious differences were kept under wraps.
The message was one of tolerance and pluralism.
Other than PKS, however, the other major Islamic
political parties did not perform as well they had
hoped. PPP, the biggest Islamic-based party, won 58
seats to finish third; PAN won 52 seats, an increase
from 34 in the 1999 elections; followed by PKS with 45
seats, a major increase from the seven seats it won in
1999.
Yet Islamic organizations continue to try
to make the giant leap into the secular mainstream. Four
of the seven agreed on Saturday to nominate common
presidential and vice-presidential candidates, said
Hamzah Haz, the country's current vice president and the
chairman of PPP.
The three Islamic-based parties
left outside of this embryo coalition are the PBR, the
PBB and the PKS.
The Jakarta Stock Exchange was
down all last week, hurt by political uncertainty and
local security concerns, dealers said. The failure of
any party to win a large majority of seats has
discouraged investors.
Prospects for the economy
and business have been sidelined for the time being in
the wider interests of getting a grip on power, but
there are social issues building up a head of steam.
US Ambassador to Jakarta Ralph Boyce warned this
month, "What is ticking, I think, is that there are
millions of people coming into the workforce on a net
basis every year that have to find jobs, and, absent
major increases in domestic and foreign investment,
that's a concern for anybody that values stability."
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information
on our sales and syndication policies.)
