SPEAKING FREELY
Big Brother Beijing blocks Yangon reform
By Kanbawza Win

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The Myanmar regime has shown how to use Thailand's prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, to promote its own interests, when, without any regard for Thailand or its Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) partners, which have graciously accepted the obnoxious Myanmar military junta into their fold, even at the cost of disrupting the Asia Europe Ministerial Meeting (ASEM), it vetoed the Bangkok Process by refusing to attend.

It seems to suggest that either the Myanmar generals, who have a track record of broken promises, were uncomfortable answering questions posed by the 17 nations scheduled to participate in the Bangkok talks regarding the openness of the constitutional process due on May 17, or they simply have no intention of introducing a new process and are unwilling to undertake democratic change.

During the 60th session of the United Nations Human Rights Commission in Geneva recently, 53 nations unanimously deplored the systematic violation of human rights and the suppression of political freedom in Myanmar. They also demanded the freedom of pro-democracy opposition leader and Nobel Peace laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, lovingly known as Daw Suu.

But still Myanmar stood its ground. So what is its rationale?

Its Pauk Paw, meaning dear Chinese brother. Adhering to the rhetorical principle of "non-interference in the internal affairs of neighboring countries", China has quietly shored up the military junta, and it is not at all unlikely that Beijing has been behind the recent measures adopted by the regime. In other words, it is possible that the generals have been inspired by the Chinese ahead of any foreign intervention that might lead to the installation of a pro-American regime that could possibly be hostile to China.

It should be noted that by exploiting the junta's isolation, Beijing was able to maintain diverse links with Yangon and to consolidate its military influence in the Indian Ocean. It has established invulnerable naval bases, equipped with sophisticated monitoring and espionage systems, on Myanmar soil opposite India's east coast. During the past few years, China also has helped to cushion the sanctions imposed on Myanmar by its neighbors and those in the West, and China has been the only gateway open for the junta to prolong its rule and to deal with the country's economic problems. The scenario is somewhat similar to Pakistan's role in Afghanistan, when it reminds us that if the international community had met Islamabad's interference with a firm position from the beginning, the Afghans would have been spared six rough years of the worst kind of human-rights abuses at the hands of the Taliban.

Myanmar senior generals have regularly been visiting Beijing to sign bilateral deals, particularly in the field of military cooperation. It has been reported that since 1992, US$3 billion worth of Chinese-made arms and security equipment has been pumped into Myanmar, to tighten China's grip on the country's generals. The Chinese arms sales have enabled the Myanmar military to expand to a point where it could occupy territories far beyond its previous reach. The supply of such a large army, however, with military expenditures eating up about 60 percent of the national budget, was beyond the capacity of Myanmar's weak and shrinking economy. This required the military to live off the land - and in effect, the people - resulting in further oppression, human-rights violations and refugee flows. From this scenario, it can be said that China is indirectly responsible for encouraging the egregious human-rights violations that the military regime in Myanmar is committing.

China aid: More than meets the eye
Beijing has provided Yangon with loans and grants to ease its financial and economic crises, and Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt is scheduled to visit China in July. The most recent Chinese aid was a loan of $200 million, which does not include the $72 million (600 million yuan) donated by China for the extension of the Lashio-Muse railway or the $20 million deal for the right to extract teak from Kachin state in northern Myanmar.

What is particularly conspicuous is that Htun Myint Hlaing, the son of Asia World Co owner and opium king Lo Hse Han, is involved with the Chinese counterpart CIFG (China International Forest Group). Moreover, Htun Myint Hlaing - also known as Steven Law - often goes to Singapore via China as he holds two passports. The situation smells fishy, and it could mean that China is helping the junta in laundering narco-dollars via a Hong Kong bank that can change yuan into dollars as one of its endeavors to cushion the sanctions. Given the above, the Chinese role in obstructing attempts by Thailand to bring Myanmar out of its dark abyss with the Bangkok Process must be worthy of consideration.

China has brazenly defied the United States' latest attempts to isolate the Myanmar military leadership, as Beijing moves to reclaim the reform initiative with its own unique blend of coercion and economic leverage. China has already denounced the sanctions and given a clear indication that it will not support efforts by the Western alliance to isolate the junta, economically or otherwise. Obviously, China wants to have people in Yangon who it can deal with, and who aren't going to destabilize their neighborhood and attract lots of unwanted attention from Western Europe and the US. The bottom line is they (Beijing) will probably support a diplomatic solution that will be favorable to them and send Vice Premier Madame Wu Yi to say a few words on the people's participation before sending her to the US.

Beijing's pragmatic policy toward Daw Suu
Beijing's policy toward detained opposition leader Daw Suu, who is seen as the most likely leader of a democratic Myanmar, has been based on a strong dose of pragmatism. Wary of social instability, China is believed to have exerted a certain pressure on the junta and has sought a more moderate response to political activism. However, it might be a different matter if Daw Suu were to establish a democratic government with an assertive foreign policy, which would probably be more sympathetic to the US and its allies. The Chinese leadership will also be acutely aware of the personal bond that exists between Daw Suu and Beijing's longtime rival India, which gave her family a sanctuary after the junta's predecessors forced her into exile in the early 1960s.

Daw Suu's National League for Democracy (NLD) has lashed out at the junta's interdependency with the Chinese military establishment. The NLD also was unhappy with the Chinese infiltration into the Andaman Sea, construed as a violation of Myanmar's sovereignty, and could be expected to move swiftly to curtail Beijing's sphere of influence if ever Daw Suu formed a government. This hypothesis further compels Beijing to support the regime.

On the one hand, China is slowly polishing up its diplomatic image - it wants to be construed as a big country undertaking regional responsibility, as seen in its dealings with North Korea. China's policy of good neighborliness and friendship has been continuing with its economic leverage throughout Asia, so much so that an article in the Washington Post on November 15 said, "China is building up a brand-new reputation among its neighbors." The end line was to prove that it is not a big bully or a threat to any other country. How far this is true in the context of Myanmar is anyone's guess.

Traveling to the Chinese border and talking to the Myanmar dissidents and the local people, it has slowly dawned on me that in the "Depayin Massacre" last May 30, when the junta implemented a premeditated genocide to finish off Daw Suu and the NLD once and for all, China had prior knowledge, if not tacit approval. A Myanmar dissident commented: "We can clearly recollect that starting from round about May 25, when Daw Suu was traversing the countryside, the various branches of Chinese intelligence men often ask us what is new. Usually these kinds of question [were] asked once in a while, but during that period they asked us almost at an interval of three to four hours daily. Of course we were bewildered by this behavior. It is only now that we can conjecture why such irrational behavior."

Even after the Depayin Massacre, when all the countries, including Myanmar's fellow ASEAN members, showed their disapproval, China was the only country in the world that kept its mouth shut and carried on business as usual. What is more, it lavished the regime with more economic and military aid. To demonstrate its solidarity it shored up the border forces. China's reinforcement is a result of its fear that the regime in Yangon might collapse suddenly because of domestic and international pressure. As Daw Suu has been put under house arrest for the third time, opposition voices are mounting, including those of ASEAN, which is always reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of a member state.

A buildup on the border
Under these circumstances, if the regime can hold on to its rule, its ability to control the border could deteriorate dramatically, leading to fighting among warlords in the region. For that and other reasons, China has seen the need to strengthen its own defense of the border. The Chinese argument is that, as with the situation on the Sino-North Korean border, the changes on the China-Myanmar border were clearly replacements, not reinforcements. But the existing border police were not removed; in fact, to make things more complicated and mysterious, some of them were transformed into a "mobility brigade". For local residents, this is one of the signs of prewar preparations. The military buildup of People's Liberation Army (PLA) 13th Army (nicknamed the Chuan Army, as it hails from Sichuan province) was most conspicuous in Jinghong, the capital of Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture. Since that time, the field army stationed in Yunnan has been the 14th Army. To all intent, the Chuan Army has broken the convention and marched into the "taboo" region, a possible indication of Beijing's desire to reinforce the border and show support to the regime in Yangon.

It is also not surprising to see the massive Chinese population in the city of Mandalay in central Myanmar as well as in the rest of the country, for China has reciprocated by giving up a small part of their sovereignty in Yunnan province, especially in Kunming, Mangshi and Ruili, where Myanmar security personnel roam at will, singling out Myanmar dissidents such as Sein Aye of the All Burma Students Democratic Front (ABSDF), arrested in Ruili and sentenced to 19 years in prison. U Win Ko, an elected member of parliament from Sagaing and a cabinet member of the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB), a parallel government to the junta, was shot and killed in Kunming; the case was hushed up by the Chinese.

It is high time that the US and the West vigorously followed up with their agenda to dislodge Myanmar's vehemently hated regime and curb the big crafty bully China, which has become the fourth-largest economy in the world and whose products have become the largest component of America's trade deficit.

From virtually zero in the 1980s, America's trade deficit with China jumped to $103 billion last year. Thus, the US should consider revoking China's most-favored-nation status - that would surely hurt Chinese businesses - and apply pressure on the World Bank to look more carefully at its China projects. With all the unmet needs in the free countries of the world, there is no reason why China should be the largest customer of the World Bank, whose operations are funded largely by US taxpayers. China has often violated international norms, as in its sale of missiles and nuclear technology to threatening regimes in countries that include Syria, Iran and Iraq - and should be condemned.

China has evidently helped to maintain the status quo in Myanmar while the pro-democracy groups and the people are paying a high price. Nothing seems to have changed the Chinese attitude toward Myanmar, and the sad fact is that freedom for the people of Myanmar is probably not in the cards. While the Berlin Wall crumbled with the Cold War, apartheid was overthrown and East Timor, against all odds, gained its independence, the winds of change have bypassed Myanmar, because the big Pauk Paw is blocking its way. With the Olympics coming to Beijing in 2008, the international community should ask the people sitting on the Dragon Throne, what about your little brother, Myanmar?

It is high time for the international community, especially ASEAN, to decipher whether Beijing is a benign brother or a hypocritical giant. With a track record of three border wars (with India in 1962, the Soviet Union in 1969 and Vietnam in 1979) and the problem of the Nanhai Sea (Spratly Islands) still unsolved, India and the ASEAN countries should clearly rethink their policy toward Myanmar, there is to be peace in Southeast Asia.

Professor Kanbawza Win, dean of AEIOU, is formerly the secretary for foreign affairs of prime minister of Burma, professor at the University of Winnipeg and senior research fellow of the European Institute of Asian Studies. He filed this article from Kunming, China.

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.