The race for second in Indonesia's
polls By Andreas Harsono
JAKARTA - Indonesian drivers frequently grumble
about the notorious traffic jams in the capital Jakarta,
but last weekend traffic was even worse, especially
around Senayan, the metropolis center where Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono - a presidential hopeful - was
campaigning in the football stadium.
As
Indonesians prepare for their first direct presidential
elections on Monday, the latest opinion polls indicate
that Yudhoyono is the leading contender. That probably
explains why more that 100,000 people flocked to hear
the retired three-star general speak at the stadium.
The popular Metro TV reported that Yudhoyono
holds Senayan's highest record for a turnout to a
political rally, compared to the other four presidential
candidates, current President Megawati Sukarnoputri,
Vice President Hamzah Haz, former military chief Wiranto
and Amien Rais, the speaker of the People's Consultative
Assembly.
An opinion poll released early this
week by the Washington-based International Foundation
for Election Systems (IFES) shows Yudhoyono with a 45%
approval rating - more than the total for the other four
candidates.
About 20% of those polled were still
undecided, prompting candidates - in a last-ditch effort
- to boost their television campaigning. The incumbent
Megawati, for instance, appeared on television appealing
directly to ordinary Indonesians, saying she would
reduce poverty, create jobs and guarantee a better life
for the people across the world's third-largest
democracy.
Yudhoyono told reporters, at the
Senayan rally, that he believes he will win the largest
number of votes on Monday. "Let us all make Indonesia
sovereign among nations. Laws are enforced, corruption
eradicated and human rights respected," Yudhoyono said,
amid a roar of approval from his supporters.
More than 150 million Indonesians are eligible
to vote in the direct presidential elections. In order
to win outright, one of the five contenders must get
more than 50% of these votes. If no one does, there will
be a run-off between the top two candidates in September
in a second round of voting.
"Frankly speaking,
it is not an exaggeration for us to be optimistic that
we will win the first round and enter the second round,"
Yudhoyono told Inter Press Service. "We will fight with
perseverance to obtain more than 40% of the vote," he
added.
Trailing Yudhoyono, according to the IFES
survey, is Wiranto with 11.4% of support, followed by
Megawati with 11%.
And it's no longer just
politicians who are involved - joining the presidential
candidates in the fray are leaders of civil society
organizations. Many activists of the Nahdlatul Ulama
Muslim group - the largest Islamic organization in
Indonesia - complained openly when two of their top
leaders, Hasyim Muzadi and Solahuddin Wahid, agreed to
be running mates for Megawati and Wiranto respectively.
Indonesian journalists also have been
complaining that many of their colleagues, and even
their bosses, are openly supporting the presidential
candidates.
For instance, internationally
acclaimed Goenawan Mohamad - the founding editor of
Tempo weekly - has thrown his hat in Amien Rais'
campaign ring. Goenawan justified his actions by saying
that he shows his partisanship only "once every five
years". Other editors have become media strategists,
campaign managers or speech writers for the candidates.
The leader of the pack, Yudhoyono, also known by
his initials SBY, seems to be drawing support from his
image as a man of integrity, a strong communicator and a
good leader. Yudhoyono was a senior political and
security minister under Megawati, but resigned after a
public quarrel with the president and her husband.
Consequently, many see him as a "victim" of the
government. This seems to have worked in his favor.
"Yudhoyono is very likely to pass the first
round and the challenge is now to wait and see who will
compete against him in the September election," said
Denny J A of the Indonesian Survey Institute.
But memories of former president Suharto's
military-backed regime, which ruled Indonesia with an
iron-fist for three decades, are still fresh in the
minds of many Indonesians. Some even warn that the
country's hard-won democratic gains could be set back if
the second round of polling in September is between two
ex-generals.
Wiranto is the nominee of the
former ruling Golkar party, which won the most votes in
the April 5 legislative elections. Many observers do not
discount the possibility that he might just make it into
the second round, despite poor ratings at the opinion
polls, due to the financial support of Golkar and its
mysterious donors.
Meanwhile, some of
Yudhoyono's friends worry that the former general will
be swayed by conservative advisers and lack the courage
to carry out military reforms he helped initiate. From
1998-99, Yudhoyono led a group of generals in writing a
reform blueprint that stressed depoliticizing the
military. The plan, only partially accomplished,
included a proposal to end the military's "dual
function", a practice dating back to 1958 in which
active-duty military officers also held unelected
civilian government positions and legislative seats.
While the military has given up some of its
political role by, for example, relinquishing its
formerly guaranteed bloc of seats in parliament, the key
component of putting the armed forces under effective
civilian control has not been realized. For that reason,
the country is still faced with a precarious situation.
