Susilo:
Indonesia's front-running underdog
By Gary LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - From the prohibitive favorite to become Indonesia's next
president on the eve of Monday's first direct presidential election, in less
than 36 hours, former General Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono has been transformed into a rare political breed:
front-running underdog. That's a highly endangered species.
A "quick count" of the kind that proved highly accurate for April's legislative
elections indicates that political debutant Susilo is headed for a September 20
runoff against the candidate of an established, better-funded party with far
more solid support than his own. The specific opponent, though, won't be
certain until the actual count is completed, which could take up to three
weeks. For President Megawati Sukarnoputri and retired General Wiranto,
finishing second will be the difference between a potential Merdeka Palace
office and likely political oblivion.
Results of the quick count differ significantly from final opinion polls taken
June 17-26 and released last week showing Susilo with more support than the
other four candidates combined. The sampling of actual election returns
released early on Tuesday projects that Susilo will finish with 34% of the
vote, far below the 43.5% he garnered in the earlier survey. The quick count
from the Washington-based National Democratic Institute and its think-tank
Indonesian partner also shows Megawati and Wiranto in a statistical tie around
25%, well ahead of their 12-14% showing in the pre-election poll.
Regardless of the opponent, Susilo faces a far tougher path to the presidency
than expected before the vote. Beating an opponent 45% to 14% in Round 1 is far
different from winning by a margin of 34-25%, according to public opinion
experts. "Thirty-four percent isn't that close to 50% that the challenger can't
overcome it," pollster Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International says,
"especially if the challenger is better organized."
Susilo's fledgling Democratic Party can't match the national infrastructure of
either potential runoff rival. Wiranto has the backing of Golkar, Suharto's
former ruling vehicle, with a network stretching to the village level. A strong
1999 showing and incumbency have helped Megawati's Parti Demokrasi
Indonesia-Perjuangan (PDI-P or Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) build a
similarly potent organization.
"Organization can be important in runoffs," Mitofsky notes. "It is usually more
difficult to get voters to the polls again." That may prove particularly true
in Indonesia, where the September 20 runoff would be the third national
election in less than six months.
One way to motivate voters is with money, something Golkar and PDI-P can
dispense with far greater alacrity than Susilo's minions. The September 20
voting date also gives the contenders plenty of time to reload their war
chests, ensuring that money can play a significant role in the campaign.
Whichever party finishes second is likely to get the major slice of tycoon
funding as a known quantity with a record of delivering the goods.
But most troubling of all for Susilo is that the quick count indicates the
upstart candidate isn't nearly as popular as believed, while his opponents
aren't nearly as unpopular. The candidates offer few policy contrasts, indeed
few policy specifics at all, so the election largely revolves around perceived
personality and image. As longtime figures on the national stage, Megawati and
Wiranto have established personalities with appeal that exceeded that of their
parties in the April voting.
On the other hand, Susilo appears to have peaked in early June, at the start of
the four-week official presidential campaign. Although he's been in the public
eye since the Suharto era, it's only since he began his presidential run in
March that the spotlight fell on Susilo. Whisper campaigns, now conducted by
short message service (SMS), that question Susilo's human-rights and Islamic
bona fides may have had an impact on the neophyte's evolving image.
"A fast scan of the numbers indicates that [Susilo] did not do well among the
undecideds," says Kenneth Sherrill, professor of political science and
department chair at New York's Hunter College. Initial support for Susilo
appears to have been cinta monyet (monkey love, Indonesia's version of
puppy love), which doesn't last. The more people look, the less they find.
Observers of US politics may see parallels between Susilo and Wesley Clark, a
retired general with good poll numbers but whose support quickly dissipated
when he entered the US presidential race. In the United States, it was as if
Clark used up his allotted 15 minutes of fame in a few seconds. In Indonesia,
famous for its jam karet (rubber time) flexibility, Susilo's 15 minutes
may run longer before expiring.
Either opponent poses special problems for Susilo beyond money and
organization. Wiranto trumps Susilo as a decisive military figure, is more
ruggedly handsome and, as he proved to the nation on Akademi Fantasi Indonesia,
the local equivalent of American Idol, has the much better singing
voice. Wiranto would capture the SARS (Sindrom Aku Rindu Suharto, I miss
Suharto syndrome) votes.
On the other hand, a faceoff in September between retired military men would
probably keep many liberals on the sidelines. Reformers would also have little
enthusiasm for Susilo, who served as a leading figure in the cabinets of the
past five disappointing years. Megawati's supporters in particular would be
upset by the personal tone of his resignation from her cabinet in March (even
though most of the insults came from Megawati's camp, specifically her
husband).
If he were to face off against Wiranto, it would also be difficult for Susilo
to push the human-rights button too hard against his fellow Suharto-era general
(and former commanding officer). In fact, Wiranto could try to polish his
indictment by a United Nations human-rights court and US visa-watch status into
badges of nationalist honor. In contrast, Susilo has served with UN forces,
studied in the US, and enjoys great support along Jakarta's embassy row. During
the campaign, Susilo was the target of SMS charges that he's a puppet of the
West.
Were he to face Megawati in a runoff, Susilo could lose much of the reform
vote, while the political establishment would likely stick with the devil it
knows. Golkar and PDI-P cooperated to win Megawati the presidency in 2001 and
have worked together comfortably since. Party pros eager to reassert their
dominance after interloper Wiranto won the presidential nomination from insider
Akbar Tanjung would gladly team up with Megawati for another five years of cozy
accommodation rather than risk upheaval with a new president.
Instead of the underwhelming anointment of an overwhelming favorite at the end
of a historic campaign, September's runoff seems likely to produce an even more
anticlimactic endorsement of Indonesia's failures over the past five years, or
the previous three decades. That is unless the front-running underdog shows
some newfound bite.
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Bambang Yudhoyono has been transformed into a rare political breed:
front-running underdog. That's a highly endangered species.
