Indonesia begins cavorting for
coalitions By Richel Langit
JAKARTA - Although the final results
have not yet been announced, Indonesia's
presidential-election front-runners Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the
Democratic Party and President Megawati Sukarnoputri of
the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (Parti
Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan or PDI-P) are scrambling for
coalition partners to win the runoff election on
September 20.
While Yudhoyono and Megawati are
taking first and second place respectively, according to
a provisional tally of votes from the July 5 election,
they are by no means closer to winning the election.
Yudhoyono, for example, has garnered only 33.6% of the
vote from the more than 100 million Indonesians who
voted (more than half the country's 215 million people),
while Megawati has collected 26.2%. Trailing behind them
are former military chief General Wiranto of the Golkar
Party with 22.2%, Amien Rais of the National Mandate
Party with 14.8% and Vice President Hamzah Haz of the
Muslim-based United Development Party with 3%.
In the July 5 poll,
Yudhoyono, a retired four-star army general, counted on
his popularity more than political machinery. This is reflected
in the fact that his Democratic Party, which was hastily
set up last September, garnered only about 8% of the
votes cast in the April 5 legislative election; a far cry
from the 33.6% Yudhoyono has picked up in this
latest election. But political pundits argue that
Yudhoyono's personal popularity has reached its peak and that he
has to enter a coalition with other political parties
if he wants his presidential dream to come true.
While the incumbent Megawati
enjoys better-established political machinery, she counted on
her personal clout as the daughter of Indonesia's
founding father Sukarno to get public support in the July
5 election. Her PDI-P got 18% of the votes in
the legislative election, compared with her own 26.2% in the
presidential election.
Thus a coalition would
seem to be indispensable for both Yudhoyono and Megawati
if either is to win the runoff election in September and
form a strong government. Both have set up special teams
to lobby political parties whose support is deemed
necessary to win the election. High on their agenda is
Golkar, the political machinery of former authoritarian
leader Suharto. Both camps claim to have approached and
secured the support of leaders within Golkar, which won
the legislative election by grabbing 129 of 550 seats in
the House of Representatives (DPR). The party also has a
strong, working political machinery reaching down to the
village level. Whichever candidate coalesces with Golkar
is likely to win the runoff election.
However,
according to a survey by the Institute for Research,
Education, Economic and Social Affairs (LP3ES), a
well-respected research company, voters in the July 5
election ignored party lines to vote for candidates of
their own choice. According to the survey, conducted on
voting day, only 55% of people who voted for Golkar in
the legislative election endorsed the party's candidate
Wiranto in the July 5 presidential election; the others
went to Yudhoyono (31%) and Megawati (8%). Supporters of
the PDI-P were divided as well - 74% chose to vote for
Megawati, while 13% supported Yudhoyono and 7% backed
Wiranto.
Constituents of the United Development
Party were "evenly distributed" among the five
presidential candidates, with party candidate Hamzah Haz
getting only 29% of the vote. The others voted for
Yudhoyono (28%), Rais (15%), Megawati (14%) and Wiranto
(14%).
Rais was supported by 79% of voters
endorsing the National Mandate Party in the legislative
election, while election front-runner Yudhoyono was
backed up by 88% of his Democratic Party constituents.
The Muslim-based Prosperous Justice Party
endorsed Rais in the presidential election, but only 57%
of its some 8 million voters chose Rais in the July 5
election. The Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party,
meanwhile, threw its weight behind Megawati, but only
55% of its constituents voted for the incumbent.
The survey also revealed that even
within religious groups known in the past for their
"block votes", people ignored calls by their leaders to
vote for certain candidates. Nahdlatul Ulama (NU),
the Islamic country's largest Muslim organization
with about 40 million members, endorsed
Wiranto's presidential candidacy, but only 33% of them voted
for the former Indonesian military (TNI) commander, who
has been accused of committing gross human-rights violations
in East Timor in 1999. At least 32% of NU members with
voting rights chose Yudhoyono and 22% went for Megawati,
whose party chose NU chairman Hasyim Muzadi as her
running mate.
The moderate Muslim group
Muhammadiyah endorsed Rais, its former head, in the July
5 election, but only 54% actually cast their votes for
the chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR), Indonesia's highest legislative body. The others
voted Yudhoyono (21%), Wiranto (13%) and Megawati (11%).
Muhammadiyah, the country's second-largest Muslim
organization, is believed to have about 30 million
members.
The survey clearly indicated that when
it comes to the presidential election, voters are acting
independently and many prefer to cross party lines and
ignore appeals by religious leaders to vote for
presidential candidates of their own choosing. This
brings into question the merit of forging political
coalitions for the September runoff election.
As both the Yudhoyono and Megawati camps intensify
their lobbies with Golkar and other parties whose
candidates are likely to drop out of the race, fears are
growing among middle-upper-class Indonesians that political
coalitions will be made to serve short-termed interests
of the political elite, which could put an end to the
country's reform movements.
Golkar is dominated
by Suharto's New Order politicians, many of whom have
been implicated in corruption practices blamed for
pushing the country's economy to the brink of
bankruptcy. Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung was sentenced
to three years in jail by the Central Jakarta District
Court and the Jakarta High Court, but the verdict was
overturned by the Supreme Court, currently headed by
Bagir Manan, a Golkar member.
As the winner of
the legislative election, Golkar is likely to throw its
support behind a candidate who can guarantee that party
members charged with corruption will be spared from
prosecution. And since both Yudhoyono and Megawati are
scrambling for Golkar's support, the party will most
likely give its backing to the highest bidder.
Other parties - the National Awakening Party,
the National Mandate Party and the United Development
Party - have also been in close contact with the
Yudhoyono and Megawati camps and are likely to support
whichever candidate offers political concessions or
seats in the cabinet. In the end, the country's
historical direct presidential election will only
install corrupt officials back to their old posts and
provide them with a renewed legitimacy to corrupt.
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