In
Cambodia, Hun Sen is in the
driver's seat By Nelson Rand and
Vincent MacIsaac
PHNOM PENH - Cambodia's
opposition members of parliament began trickling back
into the country from Thailand over the weekend after a
tense week in which the region's longest-serving leader
was sworn into office once again, ending a year-long
battle in which his opponents failed to oust him.
"Prime Minister Hun Sen's in total control,"
said Cambodia scholar Margaret Slocomb, predicting he
would stay in power "for as long as his health allows
him".
"There's no one who can poke a stick at
him," said Slocomb, author of The People's Republic
of Kampuchea 1979-89; The Revolution After Pol Pot.
"He controls the army, the police, all forms of security
... everyone who has a gun," she added. "He's an
incredibly astute politician."
Following the new
government's swearing-in ceremony on Friday, Hun Sen
indicated that the coalition produced by a year of
intrigue, melodrama, back-stabbing, alleged bribery and
trade-offs was not as haphazard as many observers
suggested.
Cambodia has been without a
government since the July 2003 general election in which
Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) fell nine seats
short of the two-thirds majority required in the
123-seat National Assembly to form its own government.
The 11-month political deadlock ended in June when the
CPP and the royalist Funcinpec Party agreed to form a
new coalition.
Hun Sen sees it lasting up to 30
years. "We must have a coalition government at least 20
to 30 years more," he told reporters after the ceremony,
which was boycotted by the opposition.
Opposition leader Sam Rainsy, who fled to
Thailand on Wednesday with his MPs and remains out of
the country, denounced the new government as
"illegal"and accused Hun Sen of turning Cambodia's
"fledging democracy into a dictatorship and mafia
state".
"Now, Mr Hun Sen can do whatever he
wants," said Phnom Penh resident Sanitha Chay, echoing a
view that was ubiquitous on the country's most popular
talk radio channel, Radio Beehive, last week.
It
was a week of political maneuverings that on Tuesday
threatened to erupt into a crisis, when police
surrounded the house of Hun Sen's main rival in the CPP,
Senate president and acting head of state Chea Sim,
setting off rumors he had been put under house arrest
for refusing to sign controversial legislation to allow
the new government to be formed.
Later that day,
Chea Sim was escorted by national police director
General Hok Lundy, a close ally of Hun Sen, to Bangkok,
and Chea Sim's replacement as the king's representative,
Nhiek Bun Chhay, quickly signed the legislation, known
as the "Additional Constitution".
As the events
unfolded, Sam Rainsy made "an urgent appeal to the
international community ... to condemn in no uncertain
terms the threat and intimidation targeted at Samdech
Chea Sim, the acting head of state of Cambodia".
Adding to the rumor-fueled tension in the
capital was a power outage that effectively shut down
Phnom Penh on Tuesday afternoon. But the violence that
has accompanied political crises in the past did not
occur, and Hun Sen was quick to point this out after
Friday's swearing-in ceremony at the royal palace.
"After a deadlock of more than 11 months we did
not slip into a culture of violence, like other
countries have when they only have a deadlock of one or
two weeks," he told reporters.
The mood in the
capital, however, was less sanguine; the opposition
party was in Thailand, and doubts about the legality of
the government's formation had been compounded by Chea
Sim's unscheduled departure.
Endorsing the
'Additional Constitution' King Sihanouk, who is
in self-exile in North Korea, had refused to sign the
so-called "Additional Constitution", an amendment to the
constitution that basically ensured Hun Sen would remain
prime minister and Funcinpec Party president Norodom
Ranariddh would be elected as chairman of the National
Assembly. In a letter on July 10, King Sihanouk
instructed Chea Sim to let his conscience decide whether
he should endorse it.
The legislation has been
widely criticized as unconstitutional because it allowed
MPs to appoint politicians to positions in the National
Assembly and executive branch simultaneously in one
"package vote", instead of by separate votes as required
by the constitution.
Analysts say Hun Sen
insisted on this measure to ensure that his coalition
partner, the Funcinpec Party, as well as all members of
his own party, would have to support him as prime
minister if they wanted a government.
Shift
in Cambodian politics Chea Sim's exit has been
seen as proof of a schism in the famously monolithic
CPP, which celebrated its 53rd anniversary on June 28.
Slocomb said Chea Sim's exit signified a critical shift
in Cambodian politics.
"Hun Sen has asserted his
power over his own party," she said, adding that Hun Sen
had been gradually strengthening his position in the
party since the last election, on July 27, 2003.
Last Tuesday, Hun Sen showed he could force the
party president to do his bidding, Slocomb said. "It was
like a child slapping his father across the face," she
added.
Opposition members have accused Hun Sen
of staging a "double coup", against his own party and
against the Cambodian people. "Cambodia took a u-turn
toward dictatorship," opposition spokesman Ung Bun Ang
said.
In addition to Chea Sim's departure, there
are also concerns about the size of the new cabinet, the
largest in Cambodian history. The power-sharing deal
between Hun Sen and the Funcinpec Party led to the
creation of an additional 180 ministerial positions,
including five additional deputy prime ministers and
scores of new secretaries of state in each of the
country's 27 ministries.
According to analysts,
this was done to appease members of both parties,
offering them lucrative government positions for their
support.
"The deal has been reached at the
expense of the Cambodian taxpayer. This country can't
afford that kind of burden," Lao Mong Hay, a political
scientist at the Center for Social Development, told the
Cambodia Daily.
"This could be a disaster
economically," Slocomb warned, explaining that Cambodia
is already one of the most expensive places to do
business in part because of the need to bribe officials.
The new government may have extended the line of
bribe-takers too far, she said.
Slocomb also
warned that Cambodian politics could enter a period of
intense polarization, with the country split between the
Sam Rainsy Party and the CPP.
The Funcinpec
Party was essentially dead, she said. "After the last
election [2003], Funcinpec realized it was their last
waltz. They have essentially thrown themselves in with
the CPP.
"The next election will be very
violent," she added.
Ung Bun Ang said last
week's developments were a "temporary setback" for his
party and for the democracy movement in Cambodia, but
added that they were now more determined than ever to
"mobilize the democratic forces in the country".
"Now there is a clear-cut line for the Cambodian
people to choose - those who violate the constitution or
those who respect the rule of law; those who want
democracy or those who want dictatorship," he said. "And
this will make it easier for the Cambodian people to
choose in the next election."
Ung Bun Ang said
Sam Rainsy would remain outside of Cambodia for the rest
of the month, and maybe longer, traveling to Europe and
the United States to rally international support. He was
optimistic that the opposition will rebound after last
week's setback.
"No matter how powerful Hun Sen
is perceived to be, he simply cannot stop the democracy
process. He can interrupt it, but he can't stop it in
the long run," Ung Bun Ang said.
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