Thai party politics hold hope for the
future By David Fullbrook
SHANGHAI - Failing to combat the seemingly
monolithic governing Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, the
aimless, squabbling Democrats split in June, giving
birth to Mahachon. Neither will perform well in
January's election. But with the air cleared, the
Democrats can now reinvent, building a credible
challenge for 2009's election, when a quite different
electorate will be voting.
Dumped from
government in 2001, in favor of Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra's new TRT, the Democrats have been unable to
regain their footing, wallowing in introspection and
seemingly blind to TRT's more slick political style. It
was that style that appealed to voters sick of the
bitter medicine prescribed by the Democrats, medicine
whose efficacy aided today's strong recovery following
1997's economic collapse.
June's split was long
in coming given the festering rift between modernizers,
led by Abhisit Vejjajiva, a smooth, handsome aristocrat,
and conservatives rallying around kingpin General Sanan
Kachornprasart. Sanan led the disaffected into an almost
defunct party, Ratsadorn, renaming it Mahachon.
"It isn't the third party the liberals or the
people's movements were talking about. It's more like a
spoiler. What is rather perplexing is that it is made up
of academics, like Anek Leothamatas, who have taken over
a party of gangsters partly financed by Sanan. It's the
worst distillation of Thai politics," says Chulalongkorn
University Professor Giles Ungpakorn, who researches
protest politics.
A marriage of
convenience Mahachon is an odd marriage, in
essence one involving convenience and desperation. For
Sanan and policy architect Anek Leothamatas, a respected
academic and onetime communist fugitive, performing the
political equivalent of a back-door stock-market listing
by moving into Ratsadorn's shell saved time and money.
Convenient.
One of the last remaining old-style
parties, most of which merged - for the time being
anyway - with TRT, Ratsadorn was in essence a club
aiming to maximize advantages and returns for its
deep-pocketed supporters. Philosophy and policy did not
figure into its thinking.
In effect, it belonged
to Wattana Asavahame, who earlier resigned as
Ratsadorn's leader to pave the way for the change (the
United States has banned him for reasons that remain
unclear). Another luminary is wealthy Noppadol
Thammawattana, the brother of former member of
parliament Hangthong Thammawattana, whose 1999 murder is
still under investigation.
Until Sanan's merry
band came along, Ratsadorn had no future. Time does not
favor men like Sanan, Wattana, Noppadol and other aging
ex-Democrats. January's general election may be their
last chance to garner cabinet seats. The party was
desperate. "These old guys are willing to cooperate with
anybody who matches their interests," says Professor
Kevin Hewison, Southeast Asia Research Center director
at Hong Kong's City University.
However,
Mahachon does have substance thanks to Anek and other
great minds. For them Mahachon represents hope - and
reflects desperation - that a policy-focused, effective
opposition to TRT is possible. "I think this new party
comes out of a soul search for something more
meaningful, responsive to the current political
parties," says Surachai.
While TRT has been busy
offering comprehensive, if controversial, policies, the
bickering Democrats have offered criticism - and little
else. People vote for ideas, dreams, promises or lies,
not well-aimed barbs.
TRT will be hard to
beat What Mahachon has in policy, it lacks in
money, crucial to building an effective nationwide
presence able to match TRT's well-oiled election
machine. "The way things are going, there isn't a
serious challenger to Thai Rak Thai," says Giles.
Others could seek refuge in Mahachon, bolstering
its numbers. "It may become a place for those to flee
who are unhappy in Thai Rak Thai, or other parties, but
are not attracted to the Democrats," says Hewison.
Even so, Mahachon will be lucky to command 50
seats after the election. If they retain 100 seats, the
Democrats will be doing very well. That still leaves TRT
with an impressive majority. And with the opposition
split, competing for votes, their combined total could
be well below 150. "I think Thai Rak Thai will win 400
seats plus or minus five," says Siripan Nogsuan,
researching Thai party politics for a doctoral thesis.
With 400 seats under Thaksin, the opposition
will be unable to grandstand by attacking the government
through censure debates. If TRT fails to win 400 seats,
Thaksin may be tempted by a Mahachon coalition. But with
the split in the opposition, Thaksin's 400-seat target
is not unrealistic.
In any case, the desperate
may find TRT's largess and power irresistible. "I don't
think it [Mahachon] is going to be a strong party. I'm
afraid after the election is over some of the Mahachon
leaders will defect to Thai Rak Thai or take cabinet
post in a coalition," says Siripan.
And therein
lies an Achilles' heel. TRT is really two parties: a
loyal core orbited by factions, once existing as parties
in their own right, following the money. If they feel
the distribution of power's prizes is inequitable, they
will revolt. Loyalty has never been a strong feature of
Thai politics. "The people who flocked to Thai Rak Thai
when it was rising don't necessarily believe in its
social policy," says Giles.
The future looks
stale Come the 2009 election, TRT will be looking
stale. "The more they are in power, the less they care
about public opinion," says Dr Surachai Wangaew,
chairman of the Campaign for Popular Democracy.
That could work to the Democrats' advantage,
refreshed under a new leader. An outsider, such as
Banthoon Lamsam, former president of family business
Kasikorn Bank, could be shoehorned in. But Abhisit
remains the likely choice.
"If the Democrats had
a convincing leader like Abhisit, who will blossom in
the job, it may well draw businessmen in, especially
those who feel they have not done well under Thai Rak
Thai," says Hewison.
With the dissenters gone,
the party can rebuild, a long process likely to require
fundamental alterations to its structure and rules to
attract new members, especially in TRT heartlands of
northern and northeastern Thailand. Time almost
certainly favors the Democrats if they rebuild around an
appealing, holistic manifesto.
Thailand's
electorate is becoming more urban, more sophisticated.
Better-educated voters generally favor the Democrats
over other parties, a trend that will continue. Civil
society, largely critical of TRT's corporatist policies,
has flourished over the past decade. It may yet midwife
something akin to a left-of-center party.
As
education undergoes reform, flawed and creeping as it
is, students learn to question more and obey less.
Better education usually means higher wages. Both make
vote-buying harder and simplistic exhortations less
effective. "There is a transformation in the way parties
see themselves and how the people see parties," says
Siripan.
While policy-based campaigning brings
heavy advertising bills, in the long run it is probably
cheaper than vote-buying. Critics charge TRT with
implementing some policies to curry mass favor while
pursuing other policies to benefit a well-connected
minority. No wonder, it is simply cheaper.
However, such a strategy may not weather the
transition, now under way, from simplistic "circus"
politics to sophisticated "manifesto" politics. A
better, more effective, uniquely Thai democracy is
coming, but like most things in this conservative
country, change comes but slowly.
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2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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