Indonesia's big parties gang up on
Yudhoyono By Richel Langit
JAKARTA - Politicians from Indonesia's big
parties are ganging up against election favorite Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono by rallying behind his rival,
President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Barring the
unexpected, four parties - Golkar, the Muslim-based
United Development Party (PPP), the Christian-based
Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) and ruling party, the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) - are to
announce their political backing for incumbent Megawati
on Thursday.
Their move not only improves
Megawati's chances in the September 20 runoff election,
but also poses a serious threat to Yudhoyono's authority
if the retired four-star army general is the one who
gets elected.
The four parties have a combined
304 seats in the 550-seat House of Representatives
(DPR), which, under the newly amended 1945 constitution,
has the authority to enact laws and approve the state
budget, announced on Monday by Megawati. Bills endorsed
by the House, for example, automatically take effect 30
days after they are approved by legislators, with or
without the president's signature. All budget
allocations also have to be approved by the House.
More than that, the appointment of chiefs to the
Indonesian military (TNI) - the national police, the
army, navy and air force - should also get approval from
the House. Even the appointments of Indonesian
ambassadors posted overseas and foreign ambassadors
posted in Jakarta require prior approval from
legislators.
While the coalition may not be able
to prevent Yudhoyono from grabbing the presidential seat
in the September 20 direct election, the four parties
will surely create a powerful bloc in the House, where
Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and coalition partners, the
Muslim-based Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the
Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), have 66 seats
combined.
If elected, Yudhoyono, who has played
down the significance of coalition building in winning a
direct presidential election, will no doubt have
tremendous difficulties in pursuing his programs. To
make things more complicated, Yudhoyono has chosen to do
it all by himself. He and running mate Jusuf Kalla have
refrained from striking political deals with parties
that have not chosen sides, particularly the National
Awakening Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN)
and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which have more
than 160 House seats combined.
Of course,
Yudhoyono, who resigned from Megawati's administration
in March to contest in the presidential election, could
become an "authoritarian" leader by pressing for his
programs with or without the backing of the House,
arguing that because he is directly elected by the
people, he should therefore be accountable to the people
directly. Such a move, however, would place him in
constant political standoff with the House, whose
members are also directly elected by the people.
Former president Abdurrahman Wahid took such a
hostile attitude toward the House that it ended up
costing him quite dearly. Barely two years after he was
elected president in October 1999, the House turned an
alleged graft case into a political issue that led to
his impeachment in 2001. Under the newly amended
constitution, however, impeaching a president requires
the approval of the Constitutional Court.
While
the newly amended constitution does not allow the House
to impeach an incumbent president arbitrarily,
inharmonious relations between the House and the
president may create political instability, a situation
that could trigger a fresh round of multidimensional
crisis.
To avoid this, Yudhoyono may choose to
cooperate with big factions in the House, particularly
Golkar, PDI-P and PPP. Such a cooperation, however,
would last only as long as Yudhoyono were willing to
offer political concessions. This means Yudhoyono would
have to engage in certain kinds of horse-trading,
something he has long avoided. In fact, one of the
reasons he is opposed to forging a coalition before the
September 20 election is to avoid such political
bargaining.
But even if Megawati gets elected,
her administration is unlikely to bring about radical
changes, as she would have to accommodate the political
interests of the parties that support her. The problem
is, the four parties rallying behind her do not share
the same ideas on how to bring the country out of the
many crises that have been plaguing it since 1997.
PPP, for example, has long pushed for the
implementation of Islamic laws, or syariah, in
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. This
political platform, however, contradicts PDI-P's and
Golkar's nationalist ideology. PDS, on the other hand,
is an ultra-Christian party that fights for the
interests of the country's Christian minority.
Christians account for only about 10% of Indonesia's 215
million people.
Even then, several of the
parties still have common links. For instance, Golkar,
PDI-P and PPP are closely related to Suharto's New Order
regime, which is blamed for pushing the country to the
brink of bankruptcy. Golkar was the political machinery
that backed Suharto, while PDI-P, previously known as
PDI, came about as a coalition of several nationalist
parties, and PPP developed as a coalition of
Muslim-based parties; the formation of both coalitions
was ordered by Suharto.
Regardless of who gets
elected next month, the latest alliance appears to have
significantly boosted the bargaining power of
politicians associated with the New Order regime. And
while Megawati's administration has already failed in
its battle to rid the country of corruption, if elected,
it's quite possible that Yudhoyono could offer
concessions to corrupt politicians in exchange for their
backing. So whoever wins the upcoming election, it seems
the people, who have become even more poor since the
country plunged into economic crisis in 1997, will
suffer even more.
Richel Langit is a
freelance journalist based in Jakarta. She covers
various topics including education, health, the
environment and political issues. She worked as a
reporter for the Manila Times in the Philippines for
five years before moving to Jakarta, Indonesia, in
1999.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
