Voting ends with a Bambang and
whimper By Gary LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - Indonesia's first direct
presidential election has ended with a Bambang and a
whimper. Surveys of results announced at the more than
500,000 polling stations give former general Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono more than 60% of the vote in Monday's
runoff election against President Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Official results won't be released until early next
month.
After vigorous campaigns for legislative
elections in April and the first round of presidential
voting in July, Monday's ballot was a relatively
restrained affair. Rules designed to minimize the chance
of clashes between supporters in the head-to-head final
election stage restricted the official campaign period
to three days (with a three-day cooling-off period
before the vote) and limited the candidates to indoor
rallies. Anecdotal evidence suggests Monday's turnout
fell below the 78% average for this year's earlier
votes.
Ending with a whimper wasn't only the
result of subdued appeals to tired voters. The two
candidates offered little to choose from on the issues.
In Bali, a Megawati stronghold that broke into riots
when a backroom deal denied her the presidency in 1999
and where some disappointed supporters burned a tire on
Monday, one voter shrugged: "Tomorrow SBY [Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono], or maybe Mega, but it's all the
same." Megawati and Yudhoyono, her security minister
until March, led an administration that delivered a
tepid economy, rampant corruption and flagging reform,
as the world's largest predominantly Muslim nation
became a frequent target for anti-Western terrorists.
Without a chance for a significant change in policies,
voters opted for a change in tone.
Negative
voting Yudhoyono's unofficial victory indicates
that voters opted for the hope of change and a stronger
leader. "It's time for a change. Maybe things won't get
better, but I don't think they'll get worse," another
voter said. "Megawati hasn't done enough to deserve
another five years." That point highlights one key
element of Yudhoyono's appeal: he's not Megawati.
Despite his high post in Megawati's administration,
Yudhoyono avoided blame for its mistakes, just as he's
avoided the taints of corruption, human-rights abuses
and authoritarianism common among Suharto-era generals.
Yudhoyono seems to have a high Teflon content that the
presidency will test severely.
Voters ignored a
rash of rumors spread by mobile-phone text messaging
that Yudhoyono had a Christian wife and was an agent for
the US Central Intelligence Agency. Those charges
underscored his potential vulnerability as a foreign
tool: Yudhoyono was the favored candidate of Jakarta's
diplomatic community and foreign investors; he attended
a military college in the United States; and he led a
United Nations force in Bosnia-Herzegovina. But those
international links didn't produce a nationalist
backlash among voters. Yudhoyono's lead after a peaceful
vote has produced business-community optimism, a
stronger rupiah and a stock-market bounce. But the joy
won't last without key reforms, starting with a real war
on corruption, that Yudhoyono didn't pursue as a top
minister.
Electing Yudhoyono means voters have
conquered lingering fears about putting a military
figure back in the presidency just six years after the
end of former general Suharto's repressive regime.
Additionally, Yudhoyono's triumph underlines the
diminished power of established political parties to
influence voters in free and fair elections,
particularly without a galvanizing issue.
To the
consternation of many Western analysts and reporters,
terrorism was not the central issue of the campaign,
despite the 2002 Bali bombings, last year's blast at the
Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, and the Australian Embassy
attack two weeks ago. Both candidates agreed terrorism
was a problem requiring presidential attention, and
analysts acknowledge that police are doing their best to
hunt down the perpetrators. But since both candidates
bear responsibility for the bombings on their joint
watch, there wasn't much room for them to attack their
opponent's record on terrorism, or most other issues.
Change from within Instead, the voting
hinged on personalities. Yudhoyono projected a resolute
image of strong leadership, building on his military
background and public platform as Megawati's security
chief. His superbly orchestrated, highly publicized exit
from Megawati's cabinet in March added the patina of an
outsider, even though Yudhoyono's influential roles date
back to former president Suharto's military regime.
After his cabinet departure, Yudhoyono formed
his own political group, Partai Demokrasi, which won
7.5% in April's legislative vote, good for fifth place
in an election where all previously established parties
lost support. He finished on top in the first round of
presidential voting, with 33.5% in a five-candidate
field. Pre-election polls suggested he might win the
majority required for a first-round victory, but
Yudhoyono's first-place finish reinforced the impression
of strong grassroots support.
Megawati,
meanwhile, failed to overcome her image as indecisive,
arrogant, detached and more interested in power than
policy. With the help of media consultants, she tried to
recapture the reformasi leader aura that won her
Parti Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P) the biggest
legislative bloc five years ago. But that strategy often
meant running against her record as president.
Parties over? While trying to soften
her image and reconnect with the masses, Megawati's
campaign in this final round mainly focused on old-style
politics. She formed electoral alliances with
established political parties, including Golkar,
Suharto's former ruling party, an association that
undermined her reformist credentials. Perhaps more
important, the April and July elections demonstrated
that parties could no longer guarantee votes.
Golkar's endorsement of Megawati has wide
implications for the new president and legislature. Many
Golkar veterans favored ex-military man Yudhoyono and
his running mate Jusuf Kalla, a leading Golkar reformer
until he was expelled from the party last week. Some
Golkar chapters resisted leadership pressure to campaign
for Megawati, and backing a loser won't strengthen the
hand of party chairman Akbar Tanjung (see Tanjung acquittal: Verdict against
reform, February 14). Tanjung says Golkar, with 128
of the 550 seats in the House of Representatives (DPR),
will sit in opposition to Yudhoyono at the head of an
alliance with PDI-P and five other parties controlling
300 DPR seats. (Yudhoyono's party and its allies have
fewer than 100 seats.) However, the rift over the
presidential endorsement - preceded by Golkar's failure
to get its candidate into the runoff - may undermine the
party's position and lead to the demise of this
Suharto-era relic. A Golkar split could give Yudhoyono
an opening to forge his own legislative majority, or it
could put even more greedy factions around the table
when the real challenge of governing begins. What
promises to be a long-running sinetron (soap
opera) starts on October 1, when the legislative session
begins, weeks ahead of the presidential inauguration.
In Suharto's time, death tolls were routinely in
the dozens during rigged election campaigns. This year's
democratic marathon was free, fair and virtually without
violence. That may be its greatest historic
significance. Indonesia's voters have demonstrated they
can handle democracy. If things don't get better, the
blame should fall not on the people or the process but
squarely on the politicians.
Gary
LaMoshi, a longtime editor of investor rights
advocate eRaider.com, has also contributed to Slate and
Salon.com. He's worked as a broadcast producer and as a
print writer and editor in the United States and Asia.
He moved to Hong Kong in 1995 and now splits his time
between there and Indonesia.
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