Jakarta's new agenda: Nine days down, 91
to go By Gary
LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - Newly inaugurated
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, also
known as SBY, is borrowing a page from another president
known by his three initials: America's Franklin Delano
Roosevelt, FDR (1933-1945). In his first 100 days in
office, FDR enacted sweeping changes to combat the Great
Depression that began years before his term and lasted
for more than a decade. Yudhoyono is also promising
swift action in his first 100 days to confront
Indonesia's lingering economic, political and social
maladies.
Not all of FDR's initial ideas were
right, but his resolute steps lifted the country's
spirits and signaled a decisive break from the previous
administration. It would be a great trick for SBY to
duplicate on these leading domestic issues. As the first
directly elected president in Indonesian history,
Yudhoyono has a mandate for change.
Unfortunately, SBY doesn't have the tools at his
disposal for historical changes that FDR did. For
example, Yudhoyono doesn't have a platform, partners or
a program. Rather than hit the ground running the way
FDR did seven decades ago, it will be a challenge for
SBY to hit the ground without falling flat on his face.
Having taken the oath of office on October 20, Yudhoyono
has already served nine days as president. Over the next
91 days, the best he can realistically do is create
policies that might address key issues in the remainder
of his five-year term.
Voting for
nothing Although he topped the field in the first
round of voting in July and received a 61% mandate in
the run-off against incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri,
September's election wasn't about policies but
personalities. After all, Yudhoyono and his running
mate, Jusuf Kalla, were once two of the leading
ministers in Megawati's cabinet, so it's not as if they
planned to chart a radical new course for the country.
Moreover, from the time he quit Megawati's
cabinet in a huff in March, SBY found himself leading
the polls by a wide margin. Thus his election campaign
avoided taking positions that might have cost him
supporters. He spoke in platitudes; in favor of more
jobs, against corruption, and for national unity. So
while SBY got a big portion of the vote, it wasn't an
endorsement of any particular policy.
As the
head of a new party, Yudhoyono didn't have a deep pool
of talent from which to draw his new 36-member cabinet.
With his party holding less than 10% of the seats in the
legislature, SBY needed to reach out to various factions
in order to broaden his support with an eye toward
finding a legislative majority for his programs. As a
result, his cabinet is a reflection of the need for
political balancing and compromise, rather than a
unified team marching in a bold direction set by the
president.
The cabinet's initial task is not to
enact decisive programs that address national priorities
such as economic growth, corruption and rule of law, but
to formulate plans for tackling these problems.
Regardless, whatever plans emerge are unlikely to be
bold, fresh initiatives given the combination of old
faces and compromised choices in the cabinet as well as
Yudhoyono's famously cautious nature that his
overwhelming mandate seems to have left unchanged.
Countdown to accountability If, at the
end of his first 100 days, ministers announce plans to
grapple with the country's most pressing problems, this
certainly will represent a major accomplishment and a
significant break from the past. The act of government
officials declaring their intentions and inviting public
accountability would be a radical change for Indonesia.
But the real test won't be declaring the plans, or even
making them succeed, but seeing whether these policies
have a real impact on key issues: will they produce real
economic recovery, public safety, and national unity? It
will take thousands of days for those results to be
seen.
The focus on Yudhoyono's first 100 days is
solely a public-relations move. And at the end of that
time, the best Indonesians can expect is a
public-relations victory. That may be an improvement
over the uncommunicative Megawati regime, but it won't
produce added jobs or investment or provide anything
else of substance.
Sadly, if SBY's first 100
days are destined to be little more than a
public-relations exercise, he's already let a major
opportunity pass. Last Friday night, vigilantes from the
Islam Defenders Front (FPI) attacked Star Deli, a
popular nightspot in South Jakarta's fashionable Kemang
district frequented by the city's expatriates (see Indonesian moralists take a swipe at
sin October 26).
Star Deli had
committed the crime of serving alcohol during Ramadan.
While these attacks typically are perpetrated in the
name of Islam, often they are associated with payoffs,
or lack thereof, to authorities. Police had warned Star
Deli's proprietors of a possible attack early in the day
and, the owner said, forced an early closing. But police
weren't around when FPI's mob showed up about an hour
later and trashed the restaurant.
The sound
of one headline dueling Yudhoyono says one of his
top priorities is to improve the climate for investment.
A key concern holding back foreign investment is
violence against Western targets by Islamic groups.
While the FPI attack doesn't compare to the Bali
bombings of 2002 ,the blasts at Jakarta's Marriott Hotel
last year and the Australian Embassy last month, it fits
the pattern that makes Westerners reluctant to visit
Indonesia, let alone live, work or invest there. It
makes headlines: " Muslim group plans more anti-booze
attacks," wrote Reuters.
More than changes in
some obscure tax regulations or a proposed new law that
will go to the bottom of the legislature's in-tray, a
forceful statement by SBY against the attack and the law
enforcement failure behind it would have produced an
equally strong counter headline: Indonesia's new
president condemns radical Muslims.
A sharp
public statement against vigilantes would have sent a
message that there's a new sheriff in town and
lawlessness will no longer be tolerated. (The second
terrorism trial of alleged Jemaah Islamiyah leader Abu
Bakar Ba'asyir opened on Thursday, but that's not a
proper situation for presidential grandstanding.)
Instead, SBY greeted the attack and police reaction to
it with a silence worthy of Megawati. That's no way to
win a war on terror, nor hearts and minds in a public
relations war.
Gary LaMoshi, a
longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com,
has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He has
worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and
editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong
Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and
Indonesia.
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