Hardliners point to Myanmar's
isolation By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - As the purge of pragmatists continues in
Myanmar, there are signs that a major shift of power is
also under way within the junta. A new generation of
military officers is beginning to emerge that may signal
a significant shift in policy, particularly toward the
outside world.
Since the dramatic arrest of
prime minister Khin Nyunt in October, military hardline
commanders under Senior General Than Shwe in Yangon seem
committed to purging any remaining people who may have
shared the former premier's vision of Myanmar's future.
Many Myanmar watchers viewed Khin Nyunt as
a moderate based on his plans for the country - the
most important of which was a seven-step roadmap toward
democratic reform. The reconvening of the National
Convention to draft a new constitution, first initiated
in 1993 but adjourned in 1996, was described at the
time as the preliminary step of this exercise. In
addition, Khin Nyunt was also reported to favor talks
with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent
the past year under house arrest.
Most of
Myanmar's ambassadors have been recalled to Yangon,
ostensibly for a formal briefing, but many of them -
especially those aligned with Khin Nyunt and former
foreign minister Win Aung - are not expected to return
to their posts abroad.
Win Aung, a close
confidant of Khin Nyunt, was the first to be purged
after the prime minister's arrest. Now it seems even
more changes in the country's military administration
are in the pipeline, according to Asian diplomats.
"There is likely to be a further shakeup of the
cabinet, possibly within weeks," a Yangon-based
Southeast Asian diplomat told Inter Press Service. "This
will be followed by a major change amongst the country's
regional commanders - already the western regional
commander is on his way back to Yangon to become the new
home minister."
This follows the sacking on
November 5 of home minister Colonel Tin Hlaing and labor
minister U Tin Win, both of whom were permitted to
retire, according to the state-run media, but who in effect
were purged. Both ministers were the last of Khin
Nyunt's key supporters in the cabinet. They were also
the only remaining senior ministers who had close
contacts with diplomats and international organizations.
Tin Win recently led a top-level official
delegation to the United Nations General Assembly in New
York and later to the Asia-Europe Summit Meeting (ASEM)
in Hanoi. The home minister, Tin Hlaing, meanwhile,
attended an international meeting in Yangon where the
Mekong Delta countries signed a regional cooperation
agreement on combating human trafficking.
Four
other ministers, the deputy ministers for agriculture
Brigadier-General Khin Maung and Brigadier-General Kyaw
Win; livestock breeding and fisheries minister Aung
Thein; and science and technology minister Nyi Hla Nge
also were sacked this month.
When Khin Nyunt was
unexpectedly removed from office on October 19, it was
initially explained, in textbook dictatorship style,
that he was simply "unwell". But as it turned out, the
prime minister, who was also the country's military
intelligence chief, had been placed under house arrest.
Since that time, hundreds of military
intelligence officers have been detained, many of them
charged with corruption. Diplomats in Yangon believe as
many as 2,000 senior military intelligence officers are
currently in detention. A few have been allowed to
retire and others have fled - or are hiding along the
borders with China and Thailand.
At least 20
Myanmar military intelligence officers based in Bangkok
disappeared within 24 hours of Khin Nyunt's arrest,
according to sources here. Officially, the junta claims
this is all part of a corruption crackdown in
intelligence services - the military dictatorship's
attempt to clean up its act. But a more likely
explanation, according to Myanmar watchers, is an army
purge by hardliners consolidating their grip on power
and gobbling up their rivals' business empires in the
process.
Human-rights report targets the
regime As the current power struggle plays out in
Yangon, Britain's Foreign and Commonwealth Office last
week released its annual human-rights report for 2004
and singled out the Myanmar regime for suppressing
political opposition groups.
The report also
highlights the May 2003 attack on Aung San Suu Kyi's
entourage, which was ambushed by government-backed thugs
while traveling in upper Myanmar. The report claims that
about 1,400 political prisoners are denied basic rights
and health care.
"The gravest failures to
respect human rights can provide fertile ground for
terror and conflict, bringing mass killings, refugees,
and the destruction of precarious livelihoods in their
wake," Jack Straw, Britain's minister for foreign and
commonwealth affairs, said when launching the report.
The report stresses that the regime's
seven-point roadmap lacks democratic principles and that
Yangon has rebuffed international efforts to improve
human-rights conditions in the country. Other rights
violations were also cited, including forced labor, the
forced recruitment of child soldiers, religious
persecution and abuses in ethnic minority areas.
Meanwhile, the political strife between
Than Shwe and Khin Nyunt has had its first
repercussion overseas. This month Japan's Nenbutsushu sect
withdrew its sponsorship of a Buddhist summit in Myanmar
in December over concerns about the junta's hardline
shakeup. The sect has held the World Buddhist Summit
every two years in a Buddhist nation. This year the
event was due to be held from December 9-13 in Yangon,
where a new convention hall has been built for the event
and temples and hostels spruced up.
But the sect
said most nations refused to attend the summit after the
junta sacked Khin Nyunt and placed him under house
arrest. "People were concerned that this was a coup
d'etat or an undemocratic change of government," said
Nenbutsushu spokesman Kazuo Takayama.
Last week Myanmar announced that it will still host the
summit as scheduled, claiming it will not be affected by
the withdrawal of Nenbutsushu.
Transfer of
power far from over The purge of Khin Nyunt and
his supporters is likely to be only the start of the
purging process, rather than the end. Diplomats in
Yangon believe it may not be Than Shwe who is really
calling the shots but Myanmar's No 2 - General Maung
Aye, in effect the army chief.
"There is
no doubt that Than Shwe will have been consulted and
involved in the events that unfolded, but General Maung
Aye was clearly the prime mover," said a senior
Southeast Asian diplomat who regularly deals with
Yangon. "The top army commanders have taken firm control
of the military and government. All the new appointments
to the cabinet have been loyal army officers, close to
Than Shwe and Maung Aye."
The
regime's top generals have also been talking about the need
to transfer power within Myanmar's military leadership
to the next or younger generation. General Thura Shwe
Mann, the armed forces chief of staff, and Lieutenant-General
Soe Win, who replaced Khin Nyunt, are both clearly
destined for the top jobs.
A new triumvirate is
beginning to emerge with Maung Aye, Thura Shwe Mann and
Soe Win running the country on a day-to-day basis. Than
Shwe is likely to fade into the background but will
remain a key figure in the power structure.
"His role
is likely to be a combination of the former Burmese leader
Ne Win after 1988 [when the current junta took over
and changed the country's name from Burma to Myanmar] and
China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping," a Western
diplomat who closely follows politics in Myanmar told
IPS.
The next few months are going to be
critical for Myanmar. But the signs are not too hopeful,
as there are strong indications the new generals may
retreat into greater isolation.
