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Thaksin readies for victory -
absolutely
By David Fullbrook
BANGKOK - Thais will not be gambling on
who wins this Sunday's election, for no bookmaker
will give odds, but on how many House seats Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai party
wins. If Thaksin hits the jackpot, he will silence
the already whispery opposition. Campaigning has,
as usual, been about image, smiles and
personality, suggesting that the day when issues
and policies debut is at least an election, or
two, or three, away.
When his party sweeps
to victory on Sunday, Thaksin will cement his
place in Thai minds and history for a long time to
come (no mean achievement, as Thais readily admit
their memories are short). He will become the
first prime minister to win elections twice, and a
second consecutive four-year term to boot.
"This election is different from the last
election in that the outcome is a foregone
conclusion," says Giles Ungpakorn, a social
researcher and activist at Chulalongkorn
University.
Thaksin could also be the
first prime minister to lead a one-party
government, rather than a coalition, the usual
modus operandi that masks backroom deals
that keep patronage oiled. Should he do so, some
fear an even more authoritarian, dictatorial and
violent government will take hold, putting a
squeeze on democracy in Thailand.
Such
worries are easily overdone. Though Thaksin has
been a tough leader, and violence has increased
under his government, he has not mounted a
systemic campaign beating or murdering political
critics and opponents. Some have simply gone quiet
through self-censorship. Others, such as Giles or
human-rights lawyer Somchai Homla-or, continue to
speak their minds.
Nor is Thailand going
to become another Singapore. There are too many
divisions, factions and mixed loyalties running
through politics and society. No Thai leader,
dictator or prime minister, has bequeathed rule to
his heirs successfully. Thailand's political
families see their fortunes wax and wane. That is
the way of the wheel, the cycle of birth and
rebirth. Many Thais take comfort knowing Thaksin's
rise will give way to fall.
Thaksin is
hoping to win 400 seats in the 500-seat
parliament. That will leave the opposition with a
100 seats, perhaps less, which means it will not
be able to call no-confidence motions against
ministers, a key strategy for remaining in the
public eye, although such motions always fail.
Holding less than 201 seats during the
last parliament has stopped the opposition
Democrat Party from calling no-confidence debates
in the government. The only thing that has kept it
relevant has been the committees its more
dedicated parliamentarians have chaired, much to
the government's chagrin.
Thus, critics
charge the puny opposition with failing to provide
checks or balances against the rampant ruling
gorilla.
If the Democrats fail to keep 100
seats, its committee representation will plunge
too. Even if Thai Rak Thai (Thais love Thai or
TRT) does not scoop 400 seats, anything above 300
will save its government from no-confidence
debates, though not its ministers, and leave
Thaksin with the luxury of deciding whether to
seduce either or both Chart Thai and Mahachon to
join TRT as junior coalition partners. He needs
neither; they are just icing on his cake, more
fuel for his ego.
An enfeebled, lackluster
and divided opposition has only made Thaksin's job
easier. "The opposition parties have been copying
TRT's populism in a very diluted form," says
Giles.
Not that TRT has been lazing around
letting others do the work, he adds. A lot of
money, thought and effort has gone into building
something akin to a modern political party
machine, in a Thai context. "It's not just the
money, Thai Rak Thai do have some pretty
sophisticated policies," Giles says.
Over
the past four years, TRT has been working along a
policy agenda, giving it a coherence unseen before
in Thai politics. Though the Democrats, Thailand's
oldest party, have, over the past few decades or
so, stood loosely for a liberal democratic
political philosophy, it has not been particularly
memorable for pushing its manifestoes.
Now
that TRT has brought policy politics to Thailand,
the day may soon come when the Democrats will
emulate that approach, while TRT finds a political
philosophy to underpin its agenda - though it's
more likely such a day remains a long way off. "I
think it's natural, you cannot expect things to
change so fast," says Siripan Nogsuan, a party
politics researcher at Chulalongkorn.
While a huge majority of voters remain
rural folk, mainly farmers, holding only a few
years of rudimentary rote education, Thai politics
is unlikely to move far, or fast, along the
political sophistication curve.
With
schools and universities still lagging far behind
their peers in Singapore or Hong Kong, it will be
years before much of the working classes have the
education a modern political system and economy
really needs. In the meantime, only the social
movements, campaigning for better conditions and
justice, can educate people. Whether they can
touch enough people for long enough with their
meager resources is questionable.
This
election is also notable for the professionalism
and sophistication of its campaigning.
Hand-painted posters and banners are becoming
rare, giving way to those coming off printing
presses and laser printers.
Banharn
Silpa-archa, Chart Thai leader, appears in
striking posters influenced by his newest recruit,
former brothel tycoon Chuwit Kamolvisit. Though
Chuwit lost last year's Bangkok gubernatorial
election, he made a name for himself with
aggressive and forthright election posters.
TRT posters remain stale, with
vote-seekers striking wooden poses or syrupy
smiles. Thaksin often looms in the background.
Implication being: I have Thaksin's ear, I can get
things done - vote for me.
Thaksin takes
on a regal pose in his own posters, which are
everywhere. Separating the man from the party is
perhaps impossible. He is Thai Rak Thai.
Campaigning, however, despite a quick nod
to policies at the beginning, has been about
persona, connections and promises - empty at best.
Appearance is very important to Thais, they are
visual people. Many will vote for a candidate
deemed handsome or beautiful, never mind his or
her party.
"This hasn't really been an
election campaign in which any of the important
issues have been really discussed," says Giles.
"Violence in the south, bird flu, tsunami
recovery, none of these have really been talked
about."
With the heavy focus on the
somewhat symbolic seat count and the historical
nature of this campaign, parties, especially TRT,
have been focusing resources on trophy
constituencies.
For example, TRT brought
in its first family - Thaksin's wife and their
three children - for a walkabout through Don Muang
in northern Bangkok, a constituency TRT is
fighting hard for, despite its nominal ally, Chart
Thai, fielding a strong candidate.
TRT's
leadership has also been rocking its own boats,
picking candidates for plum seats that its faction
leaders were coveting for their own. A deliberate
tactic no doubt to undermine potential threats to
the party and build more loyalty among MPs for the
TRT heart of Thaksin's people.
"When TRT
appoints candidates, there are a lot of complaints
from faction bosses. After the election we might
see conflict within the party," says Siripan.
"There are no certain signs of more stable
politics."
Thus, perhaps the biggest
threat to Thaksin romping on to another walkover
election in 2009 is disputes, divisions and splits
in his own party, which, despite its monolithic
appearance, has yet to fully fuse its elements
into one.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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