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Myanmar's lesson in 'discipline
democracy'
By Lucy Murray
After a seven-month break, Myanmar's
National Convention is set to open its doors again
on Thursday, when more than 1,000 delegates will
attend the closely guarded gathering near Yangon
to continue work on a new constitution. Myanmar's
constitution was suspended by the military in
1988, and since that time the junta, known as the
State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, has
ruled by decree.
However, a "roadmap" for
reform unveiled by the junta in August 2003
promised a new constitution and a fresh election,
Myanmar's first since 1990. But despite the snappy
title, the SPDC's roadmap contained little that
was new. For years, the junta has been promising
to write a new constitution and hold another
election, designed to usher in what it calls
"discipline democracy" where the generals still
call the shots.
The National League for
Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the
1990 election, but the military junta refused to
recognize the election results and cracked down
hard against the NLD. Many of the party's top
national and regional leaders were rounded up and
thrown in prison. After losing the election, the
generals decided that the poll had actually been
held to select deputies for a
constitution-drafting body.
The National
Convention finally opened its doors in 1993, and
continued to meet intermittently until early 1996,
when the NLD walked out under protest. The
convention remained shuttered until May 2004, when
it was reopened with much fanfare, though that
session only lasted two months. Not surprisingly,
opposition groups have accused the junta of
dragging its feet, suggesting that the regime is
in no hurry to finish the constitution or hold
another election.
This time, however,
might be different. The SPDC is under pressure to
deliver results. The Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) wants some concrete progress
before the end of the year, when the regional
grouping must decide if Myanmar will become chair
of ASEAN in 2006. Normally impervious to
international criticism, the SPDC knows it must
make some progress or risk a humiliating snub by
ASEAN. Some observers expect that a draft
constitution could be completed as early as
mid-year.
Even if the pace does pick
up, it is unrealistic to expect the National Convention to deliver meaningful change.
The convention itself is highly controversial. Myanmar's
government-in-exile, the National Coalition Government of
the Union of Burma (NCGUB), does
not recognize it as
a legal body. (Myanmar was known as
Burma until the junta renamed the country in 1988).
As Dr Thaung Htun, the NCGUB's
representative for UN Affairs, points out: "The
convention directly contradicts the promises made
by [then leader of the junta] General Saw Maung
before the 1990 election. He said that the
incoming government should decide what to do about
the constitution. It was only after the military
lost the election that they changed their minds
and set up the convention."
Moreover, working conditions at the National Convention
are not conducive to political reform. According to
U Maung Maung, general secretary of the
National Council of the Union of Burma (NCUB), a broad
umbrella organization for opposition groups, the
convention is required to stick to principles
agreed at earlier sessions. That includes setting
aside one quarter of all seats in a future
parliament for the military. All debate is heavily
censored, and delegates cannot leave the
convention site or speak publicly about the
process.
All delegates to the convention
have been approved by the SPDC. And as the NCGUB's
Thaung Htun points out, "Of more than 1,000
delegates, only 13 are deputies elected in the
1990 election." The NLD joined the first
convention session in 1993, but walked out in 1995
in protest at tight censorship by the regime. The
latest convention session will reopen without any
participants from the country's two main political
parties, the NLD and the Shan National League for
Democracy (SNLD). The NLD would have won 392 out
of 485 seats in the 1990 election, if the military
had recognized the result, while the SNLD would
have come in second, with 23 seats (the
pro-military National Unity Party won only 10
seats).
The NLD has made clear that it
will not join the convention this time around
until its two top leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and
Tin Oo, are released from house arrest. However, a
reshuffle in Yangon in late 2004 has made
compromise with the NLD even more unlikely. The
ouster of former prime minister General Khin Nyunt
in October left Senior General Than Shwe and
General Maung Aye as the two most powerful men in
the SPDC. Both are believed to strongly oppose
negotiation with the NLD. In late 2004, the NLD
was informed that Aung San Suu Kyi would be held
for 12 more months; on February 15, Tin Oo's
detention was also extended for another year.
It is clear that the SPDC is in no mood to
compromise. But according to Thaung Htun, "The
generals know that pushing on with the roadmap is
their best strategy, if they can complete
something successfully." For that, however, the
generals need the support of ethnic minority
groups. Without the NLD or SNLD, the junta has
based the legitimacy of the current convention on
wide ethnic participation.
Says Thaung
Htun, "The SPDC is keen to make the convention
look inclusive and so some 60% of the delegates
are termed 'ethnic representatives'. But that is
misleading, many have been picked by the SPDC." A
far smaller number of delegates actually represent
ethnic ceasefire groups, such as the New Mon State
Party and the Kachin Independence Organization.
Keeping these ceasefire groups on-side is
becoming increasingly difficult. General Khin
Nyunt and his military intelligence units
negotiated most of Myanmar's existing ceasefire
agreements. In the weeks after Khin Nyunt's
arrest, the SPDC sent its representatives to
reassure a number of ceasefire groups. But
tensions clearly are rising. On February 9 the
junta arrested seven Shan ethnic leaders,
including Khun Htun Oo, chairman of the SNLD,
Major General Sao Hso Ten, of the Shan Peace
Council, and two members of the State Army North
ceasefire group. These tough tactics could result
in some ethnic organizations pulling out of the
National Convention.
Against this
unpromising backdrop, delegates will struggle to
resolve the vexed question of the division of
power between the central government and the
regions. According to Thaung Htun, this issue was
a key focus at the 2004 convention session, when a
number of ethnic political groups presented
proposals for more autonomy. Those ideas were
rejected outright by the SPDC. The next few weeks
will be crucial. A wide-ranging reshuffle of army
and government posts is rumored to be on the
cards; if the isolationist General Maung Aye
manages to strengthen his position, relations with
ethnic political groups could deteriorate still
further.
Despite the hurdles, the National
Convention may yet manage to complete a
constitution this year. Meanwhile, the SPDC has
asked for the international community to remain
patient. One foreign investor in Yangon, who does
not want to be named, agrees: "The convention
should be given a chance, something is better than
nothing." The NCGUB does not think so. Says Thaung
Htun, "The convention is illegal and it is not
representative." Opposition groups remain
skeptical that the convention can draft a
constitution that is truly acceptable to Myanmar's
diverse political and ethnic groups, given the
lack of meaningful consultation.
ASEAN,
too, may have qualms about approving the work of
the convention. A newly formed inter-parliament
caucus of ASEAN parliamentarians has been
unusually vocal in its criticism of the junta,
calling for faster change and the release of all
political prisoners. Nevertheless, if the junta
does manage to complete a draft constitution this
year, ASEAN is likely to accept it, if only to
avoid an open conflict within the group. As U
Maung Maung of the NCUB points out, "We are trying
hard to get the ASEAN governments to listen to us,
but no one seems to want to rock the boat."
Meanwhile, Myanmar's National Convention
delegates are settling in for another few weeks or
months cut off from the outside world. This time
around, the junta has reportedly indicated there
will be improved amenities, including on-site
karaoke bars. Yet it is unlikely that the
delegates or the opposition groups unable to
attend will have much to sing about.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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