Karenni rebels dig in for last stand
By Lucy Murray, with additional reporting by Beh Reh Byardu

One of Asia's longest-running conflicts and one of its least well known may be drawing to a close. On January 6 Myanmar's military junta, known as the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, launched an all-out attack on Nya Moe, the remote hill-top base that is the last remaining stronghold of the Karenni Army (KA). This is not the first time the base, which lies  on the border between Myanmar's Karenni state and Thailand, has come under attack. After all, the Karenni leadership, backed by the KA, has been fighting the military-controlled government in Yangon for almost 50 years. However, this is the most sustained campaign Karenni leaders have seen.

The pounding of artillery fire that began in January has alarmed Karenni refugees, housed in camps just across the border. Says one camp resident, Naw Seh: "When we first heard the guns every day, I was very afraid. I could not sleep well at night." After nearly three months, she is getting used to it, but the fear and uncertainty remain. She, like others interviewed for this article, asked that their real names not be used, for fear of reprisal from military authorities.

According to a senior KA commander, General Aung Htay, the buildup of SPDC troops close to Nya Moe began in mid-December. Four SPDC battalions (totaling about 650 troops) were brought into position. Crucially, they were combined with some 700 troops from the Karenni National People's Liberation Front (KNPLF), an armed group that split many years ago from the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP). A recently constructed road through the remote hills of Karenni state has enabled the SPDC and its allies to bring in heavy artillery. With the new troops in place, the attack on Nya Moe was launched. According to Aung Htay, the fighting has been intense, with artillery attacks almost daily and a total of more than 60 clashes. Heavy shelling briefly disrupted humanitarian aid work in the area in January.

Many people are aware of the struggles to bring democracy to Myanmar led by the National League for Democracy and its charismatic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest. However, few outsiders are familiar with the ongoing struggles of Myanmar's ethnic groups, such as the Karenni.

Karenni state, the smallest of Myanmar's states, is home to a complex mix of ethnic groups dominated by the Kayah majority. Fiercely independent, the lands controlled by Karenni traditional leaders were never fully incorporated into the borders of colonial Myanmar. When Myanmar, known then as Burma, achieved independence from Britain in 1948, the degree of autonomy to be granted to ethnic groups was still a highly contentious issue. Ethnic political groups were included within the new country's borders in the constitution drawn up in 1947 but were given the right of secession within 10 years. Unhappy with what they regarded as domination by the central government in Yangon, a number of military groups were quickly formed around the country, many going underground. In Karenni state, in 1957, pro-independence groups already active in the area formed a new political organization, the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), backed by its own army, the KA. Apart from a brief ceasefire in 1995, the KA has been fighting ever since against successive military regimes in Yangon.

For many years this fighting was somewhat sporadic. The small KA has stuck mainly to launching guerrilla forays into SPDC-held areas. Although the SPDC has a heavy military presence in the state, local SPDC commanders have often focused on harassing pro-KNPP civilians. Relief workers have documented a litany of abuses; villages and crops have been torched, village leaders and those suspected of sympathizing with the KA have been tortured, ethnic-minority women have been raped.

The heavy SPDC presence and its policy of targeting civilians have resulted in many Karenni fleeing over the border to Thailand. Two refugee camps just inside the Thai border now house more than 22,600 Karenni refugees (some of the 140,000 refugees from Myanmar now in the country). Many more people have been "internally displaced" within Karenni state itself. Local relief groups estimate that around 45,000-50,000 people including many young children currently are living as "internally displaced people" (IDPs). Life for these IDPs is harsh. Whole families spend months at a time hiding out in the region's thickly forested hills, moving frequently to avoid detection. Without clean water or regular supplies of food, and lacking even rudimentary health care, diseases such as malaria and dysentery are rife, and both adults and children are at risk from the landmines that litter the hills.

Peace talks falter
In 2002, after decades of conflict, the KNPP leadership relaxed its insistence on secession from the rest of Myanmar, aligning its aims more closely with other ethnic political groups that seek greater autonomy, but within a federal system. However, the fighting continued unabated. Then, for a brief period in 2004, it did look as if peace talks might be on the cards. Early that year the Karen National Union (KNU), the largest group still fighting the junta, surprised observers by announcing an informal ceasefire agreement with the SPDC. If the KNU were to sign a peace deal, KNPP leaders knew that it would be hard for them, a much smaller group, to hold out. For a while it looked as if the KNPP was also considering a ceasefire with the SPDCF, with a KNPP delegation apparently meeting SPDC envoys for confidence-building talks.

But that all changed in October, with the sacking of General Khin Nyunt, one of the most powerful members of the SPDC, in an "internal coup". Khin Nyunt had been closely associated with the ceasefire deals signed with a number of ethnic groups. After his ousting, talks with the KNU appear to have unraveled, with a number of clashes between the SPDC and the Karen Army. KNU leaders attended fresh talks at Mawlamyine in Myanmar this month, but appear to have come away empty-handed. Meanwhile, the attack on Nya Moe has continued.

Why now?
Some observers believe the attacks on the KNU and KNPP are directly linked to the fall of General Khin Nyunt. The theory goes that with Khin Nyunt out of the way, the even-more hardline generals in Yangon, such as SPDC vice chairman General Maung Aye, are free to seek a military solution to the country's "ethnic question" (see Now it's three of a kind, October 21, 2004). But while Khin Nyunt's downfall is a factor, the reasons for the attacks are more complex. One issue is the increased willingness of the KNPLF to join forces with the SPDC. According to Tu Reh, a senior KNPP leader, "We believe that the SPDC paid around 70 million Burmese kyat [US$12.47 million] some time ago to the KNPLF, in exchange for their help to fight the KA. For a long time, they did nothing. But then, after Khin Nyunt was ousted, the ceasefire groups started to come under a lot of pressure. The generals in Rangoon [Yangon] have pushed them to take part in its National Convention, which is now working on a new constitution. The junta has made clear that, once the convention is over, the ceasefire groups will have to disarm."

The clock is now ticking; the SPDC wants to push through a new constitution before 2006, when it is due to take over as head of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Says Tu Reh, "The KNPLF would not be able to function well as a political party. If they have to disarm after the convention ends, they fear that they could lose everything: their power and the business opportunities they control. By helping the SPDC to fight against us, they hope they will be able to continue as they are."

The SPDC is now using similar tactics in the Karen and Shan states, pushing breakaway ethnic groups to step up attacks on remaining ethnic forces. According to Tu Reh, "The SPDC has told them, 'if you want to keep your guns and your land, you have to do something for us.' There are rumors that the SPDC want to finish off all the remaining armed ethnic groups by 2006."

Karenni leaders believe there is another very pragmatic reason behind the latest KNPLF and SPDC assault on the KA trade. Both the SPDC and the local Thai authorities are keen to develop cross-border trade in the area. A new border post in Thailand's Mae Hong Son province has the potential to bring a rise in cross-border trade, but only if the border region is secured. According to Tu Reh, the KNPLF want to make sure that they, not the KNPP, benefit once the border is opened.

The legacy of bitterness left by this intra-ethnic conflict will be one of the biggest challenges that Myanmar will have to overcome if it is ever to become a peaceful country. Karenni leaders are clear in their support for the democracy movement in Myanmar. However, even if democracy were to come to Myanmar tomorrow, there is no guarantee that conflict in ethnic minority areas would end. The "divide and rule" policies, first of the British and now the SPDC, have caused deep fault lines that may take years to heal.

The closing chapter of a 50-year war
Whatever the motivation, the SPDC now appears to be pushing for an end to one of Myanmar's and Asia's longest-running conflicts. In recent weeks there have been other attacks in western Karenni state, but Nya Moe is the critical target. Says Tu Reh of the KNPP, "If they take Nya Moe, it will be a very great loss for us."

Residents of the Karenni refugee camps can only wait. Nya Moe is only a few hours walk away from the camps, if it falls, the refugees fear the camps will no longer be safe. Even if the camps themselves are not attacked, camp residents fear that without the KA there will be nothing to prevent them being pushed back over the border. "If the Karenni Army loose the base, I can't imagine what will happen to us," says Doh Reh, a camp resident. "Maybe we will be forced to go back."

For now, the KA is digging in for what might be its final stand. The base at Nya Moe is in a good strategic location, high up on a steep and thickly forested hill. The nearest SPDC base is just visible across the steep sides of the valley. Repeated attempts in recent weeks to take Nya Moe, backed by heavy artillery fire, have failed. But the base is not invulnerable. An ordinary Karenni soldier, visibly exhausted as he treks down from the base on leave, says: "Many SPDC soldiers will die for sure if they try to take the base. But if they attack very strongly with heavy artillery, we could lose it."

According to Tu Reh of the KNPP, things may be about to get worse. "March 27 is Army Day in Burma. We believe the SPDC may try to end it by then." General Aung Htay remains confident that his troops can hold out, saying "We're ready to fight ... we'll fight as long as we can hold our weapons."

Ordinary Karenni soldiers and their families hiding in the jungles and refugee camps nearby are desperately hoping it will not come to that.

* All names in this article have been changed.

Lucy Murray is a freelance writer and analyst. She has been covering events in Myanmar for more than nine years. Beh Reh Byardu is deputy editor of the independent news organization Kantarawaddy Times.

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