|
|
|
|
SPEAKING
FREELY
The bells to toll on
Myanmar
By Verghese Mathews
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing.
SINGAPORE - I am sure there
are many like me who will say syabas
(super) to Mr Nazri Abdul Aziz,
Malaysia's minister for parliamentary affairs, for
his statement, widely quoted on Wednesday in local
and international media, that "Myanmar's turn to
be the chairman of ASEAN [ought] to be suspended
and given to other countries until democratic
reforms are carried out".
In addition to
this comment, Aziz also tellingly declared that a
motion to suspend Myanmar's chairmanship of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations would be
introduced in Malaysia's parliament next week.
This is surely a seriously considered
commentary that is obviously well calculated to
send a clear signal to Yangon that Malaysia means
business.
It is interesting that the
Myanmar issue is now reaching the various ASEAN
parliaments. This month, Foreign Minister George
Yeo expressed frustration and disappointment in
Singapore's parliament that Myanmar's roadmap to
democracy was still without a timeline; that
efforts by the United Nations to facilitate and
advance the national reconciliation process in
Myanmar were unsuccessful; and that the country's
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi remained in
detention (see Myanmar must do right by
ASEAN, March 11).
Likewise, I am sure
that any discussion in the Malaysian parliament
will see an even greater outpouring of frustration
and disappointment. Some parliamentarians can be
expected to be tougher and more demanding that
Nazri. But do Myanmar's military rulers really
care what Singaporean and Malaysian
parliamentarians have to say? They have not been
bothered by more strident criticism before. Why
should they now? If need be, they can always adopt
the famous ostrich posture and ask themselves what
ASEAN can do.
Nazri's comment leads to the
question of how serious Malaysia is in
spearheading the initiative to prevent Myanmar
from taking over the chairmanship of ASEAN in July
2006 and whether the momentum can be sustained. I
would suggest that Malaysia is very serious
indeed.
For a start, there is precedence.
Back in 1961 it was then Malaysian prime minister
Tunku Abdul Rahman who championed the cause
against apartheid in South Africa, which
subsequently led to Pretoria walking out of the
commonwealth and declaring itself a republic. Two
years later, Malaysia worked with India for South
Africa's ouster from the UN.
Second, I
would suggest that the clarion call was
deliberately sounded early enough, before Malaysia
assumes the chairmanship of ASEAN in four months
time, to encourage other ASEAN members to join
Malaysia in pushing for Myanmar to defer its
chairmanship. Malaysia understandably wants this
to be an ASEAN effort. It knows well the extent of
the frustration within the organization on this
issue. It realizes that Myanmar knows this too,
but is sitting tight. By individual ASEAN
countries expressing their unhappiness openly, the
pressure is calculated to increase on Myanmar.
Third, over the years Malaysia has
demonstrated that when it assumes the ASEAN
chairmanship it will be single-mindedly focused on
moving the regional grouping forward. It does not
want to be distracted by unnecessary and unhelpful
theatrics.
Unfortunately, all present
indications are that much time and energy will
indeed be wasted on the Myanmar issue.
As
chairman, much of the firefighting will fall on
Malaysia. Worse, if in fact Myanmar does assume
the chairmanship, it will be Malaysia that will
have to do the honors of passing on the baton.
Malaysia is indeed serious - it does not want to
be the baton-passer.
Better for those
currently in power in Myanmar to realize that the
proverbial bells have begun to toll. Only a few
days ago the former US ambassador to the United
Nations, Richard Holbrooke, declared that "by
holding these meetings in Rangoon [Yangon], ASEAN
runs a serious risk that countries which attended
regularly for a quarter-century will not show".
The message was directed not at Myanmar but at
ASEAN, and Holbrooke was advancing a considered
opinion.
Myanmar is not easily threatened
by rhetoric, but analysts in its military
corridors have not failed to recognize that the
ASEAN tide is uncharacteristically building up
against Yangon at a time when the ruling military
junta is itself facing internal problems. The
analysts probably realize that this is no time to
be recalcitrant, nor is it the time for bravado,
even though deep down they realize that the fear
of the military leaders is that every concession
to the democratic forces is a loosening of their
grip on the levers of power. The analysts need to
point out that power is flowing out of the
military hands.
More important, analysts
in Yangon need to take cognizance of an important
point: no one in ASEAN is pushing Myanmar into a
corner - it is already there of its own making.
Instead, what ASEAN is really attempting is to
arrive at is an acceptable solution to the
problem.
Elsewhere it has been mentioned
that there is still one opportunity for Myanmar to
change this unprecedented tide: by declaring that
this time around it will pass the chairmanship on
to the next in line, the Philippines. Such a move
will be painful and not in the character of
Myanmar's military rulers. Most analysts dismiss
this option totally as they do not believe the
military is enlightened enough to see the
advantages of such a move.
I hope the
military leaders in Yangon will prove these
analysts wrong.
Verghese
Mathews, a former Singapore ambassador to
Cambodia, is a visiting fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. He can be
reached at mathews@iseas.edu.sg.
(Copyright 2005 Verghese Mathews.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here if you are
interested in contributing. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Rm 202, Hau Fook Mansion, No. 8 Hau Fook St., Kowloon, Hong
Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
Asian Sex Gazette Southeast Asian Sex News
|
|
|
