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Thailand's royal
rainmaking
By Sara Schonhardt
HUA
HIN, Thailand - Thick clouds gather in the night
sky, passing over an orange full moon and
spreading out to block the coming daylight. It is
approaching hot season in Thailand - not a time
for 
storms. But the skies have turned an
unseasonable gray, and the sporadic sound of
thunder ushers in the rains.
Thailand is
suffering from one of the worst droughts in its
recent history. Usable water stored in major dams
across the country is 6% below last year's level,
and water levels in the country's hardest-hit
northeastern region are at their lowest ever.
Water in the country's major rivers has
also fallen below record lows. The portion of the
Moon River that flows through Buri Ram, for
example, is 44 centimeters below the lowest level
recorded in 2003, the last year Thailand
experienced a major drought.
Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has expressed concern
that the country's gross domestic product will be
affected by the water shortage. The world's
largest rice exporter has already had to cut back
on exports, revising this year's export estimate
by 15% to 8.5 million tonnes.
The Ministry
of Natural Resources and Environment (NRE)
estimated that drought-induced losses have already
exceeded 14 billion baht (US$359 million),
including 7.4 billion baht in damage to the
agricultural sector and 7 billion baht in relief
operation costs.
Other countries in the
Mekong River region, such as Cambodia and Vietnam,
are also suffering from drought. Thailand,
however, appears to have one significant advantage
over its neighbors: artificial rainmaking.
A royal response
In an effort to
stimulate rain in the country's worst-hit areas,
King Bhumibol Adulyadej is personally overseeing
operations at a special Royal Rainmaking Center,
expanding a unique cloud-seeding technique he
patented in 2002 that could save the country
millions of dollars in damage.
Last
month, the NRE reported that drought had hit
44,519 villages in 71 provinces, affecting more
than 11 million people and severely 
scaling back
agricultural production. The fields in most areas
are brown and baked. The soil is cracked and
blistered and mountain forests have little
vegetation.
Hua Hin, in Prachuap Khiri
Khan province about 200 kilometers south of
Bangkok, has not escaped unscathed. The city is
the site of the Royal Rainmaking Center, where
planes take off at least three times daily in an
effort to stimulate rain. And the situation seems
to be improving.
Pilot Monthon
Chawkhowang said moderate rain has been recorded in
areas around Nakhon Ratchasima, Surin and Buri Ram -
all towns in the northeast. The center in Hua Hin,
one of eight main artificial-rainmaking bases in the
country, is targeting Prachuap Khiri Khan
province, but the Royal Rainmaking Department's
current objective is to stimulate rain in the
country's hardest-hit areas, the 19 northeastern
provinces.
Hua Hin's five planes - two
small Caravans, two larger Casa aircraft and one
King Air, which flies at an altitude of about
20,000 feet (6,000 meters) - take to the sky between three and
four times a day, depending on the weather, said
Monthon.
The center's target area is Kaeng
Krachan Reservoir, which has risen 1 million cubic
meters since operations were increased last month,
according to Monthon. With a capacity of 710
million cubic meters, the water level remains
low, though. While flying overhead, the view from
the plane's windows reveals a patchwork of brown
fields surrounding the reservoir, which is ringed
by a line of brown that reveals how far water
levels are down.
Formula for
success
The cloud-seeding technique
involves the use of chemicals, such as sodium
chloride or silver iodine, which are released into
clouds to stimulate rainfall. The King began
testing the process for which he holds the patent
three decades ago. Hua Hin is the original base
where these techniques were first used.
The
process involves two separate steps - one that
seeds warm clouds, and another for cold clouds -
and is said to be particularly 
successful
in that it can more precisely target areas where
the rain is to fall. Though it is not patented for
use outside Thailand, other countries such as
Indonesia and the Philippines have expressed
interest in learning the details of the King's
technique, and teams have been sent there to
discuss training methods.
This past
Saturday, the aircraft in Hua Hin were sent out
three times, at 9am, 10am and then again at 2pm.
The first and second rounds included the four
lower-flying aircraft, while the third round added
the King Air. This last process is called the
"Super Sandwich" technique and targets both hot
and cold air clouds at different altitudes.
During this process, the King Air shoots
silver iodine into cold-air clouds at 20,000 feet,
while the small planes fly below and release one
of six chemical formulas that stimulate the air
mass upwind of the target area to rise and form
rain clouds. The type of formula used depends on a
variety of factors, such as weather, cloud type,
altitude and time of day.
Soldiers from the
army have been brought in to mix the chemicals and
load them on to the planes. Each plane has at
least two pilots, a radio technician, two workers
from the aviation and rainmaking department who
deal with the chemicals, and a coordinator who
relays information between the center and the
palace.
The pilots fly into target clouds
based on forecasting information that the King Air
collects. It takes about 30 minutes to release the
1,000-1,200 kilograms of chemicals that within
only minutes on Saturday had already begun
working. Black clouds gathered over Kaeng Krachan
and rain began to fall before the plane had even
hit the ground. Sometimes the team is lucky,
Monthon said. Other times the process takes much
longer, or doesn't have an effect at all.
Rain, rain all around
Between seven and 10 tons of
chemicals were released on Saturday in Hua Hin
alone. The operation has nearly doubled 
since the center was declared ahead
of rainmaking operations.
Over the past
month, 10 new sub-stations also have been
established to help with cloud-seeding operations.
They are temporary bases and will cease operation
once the drought is under control, said Prinya
Sudhikoses, with the Agriculture Ministry's Bureau
of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation.
Cloud seeding, however, will continue throughout
the year.
Rainmaking operations occur
every year in line with the rainmaking
department's annual operations plan, the budget
for which is set at about 1 billion baht ($25
million).
"We prepare for a situation like
this every year," said Wathana Sukarnjanaset,
director of the Bureau of Royal Rainmaking and
Agricultural Aviation. Tasked with heading the
center in Hua Hin, he admitted that the situation
this year was worse than in the past, but said the
ministry had taken that into account and was
adjusting its resources accordingly.
More people have been brought in to staff the center,
but with operations increasing indefinitely, many
more people need to be trained. The department
could even face a labor shortage as the work
has increased but the number of people in the
department has remained the same, Prinya said.
It is an around-the-clock job. People such
as Prinya come in for the morning briefing around 8am
and stay until late in the evening. During the
morning briefing, they assess the previous day's
developments and discuss the current weather
outlook. They use this information to determine
what type of chemical formulas will be used for
the day ahead.
In addition to
the cloud-seeding operations, about 6,000 wells
are being drilled in rural communities to
provide temporary relief, and soldiers in
Thailand's northeastern region have established 11
emergency stations to speed up the distribution of water
to local drought victims, northeastern army
chief Lieutenant-General Hern Wannaprasert was quoted by
local media as saying.
If rains don't
start in May and the dry spell extends to the
start of July, the drought could cost the country
at least 56 billion baht, according to a recently
released forecast from the University of the Thai
Chamber of Commerce.
The university's
Center for Economic and Business Forecasting said
the country's agricultural sector has already been
hit hard by the drought. Huge swaths of rice
fields are expected to be devastated, followed by
sugarcane and maize, according to the government's
Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department.
But
positive signs are starting to register.
Rainmaking operations in Hua Hin have brought
ample rain to two water-retention zones in Phetchaburi and
Prachuap Khiri Khan provinces. And rainmaking operations,
which are conducting between 40
and 60 cloud-seeding flights per day around
the country, have eased the drought situation in
37 provinces.
For now Wathana remains wary
of making comments about the long-term outcome of
the artificial rainmaking efforts. "But so far the
result is convincing," he said. "It has started
raining in the target areas."
Sara
Schonhardt is a regional editor for Asia Times
Online.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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