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Chinks in Myanmar's
armor
By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's top military leader
Senior General Than Shwe has strengthened his
control over the military and the government
through a major shake-up of the army. But as a
probe into the recent bomb blasts in the capital
fails to make progress, exposing the military's
in-fighting and weaknesses, many in Yangon believe
major changes are in the air.
The
country's No 2 man in green, Deputy Senior General
Maung Aye, was effectively demoted in May when
army chief General Thura Shwe Mann was promoted to
the same rank, according to Western diplomatic
sources in Yangon.
More significantly, the
army has now been divided into two supreme
commands. Thura Shwe Mann is in charge of the most
important division, the northern region, while
Maung Aye has been left as chief of the southern
region, diplomats have said.
Tensions have
existed between the top two military leaders since
the sacking of prime minister General Khin Nyunt
last October. "Maung Aye has been trying to
increase his power and influence rather than
trying to oust [his rival] Than Shwe," said an
Asian diplomat who regularly deals with the
regime.
But after months of deadlock over
proposed promotions and changes regarding the 12
powerful regional commanders, Than Shwe has turned
the tables and edged out the man he regards as his
main rival. At least six of the regional
commanders have been moved around.
Many of
these changes apparently represent Than Shwe's
concern to have his trusted generals placed in
commands close to Yangon. The army shake-up was
ordered during the latest quarterly meeting of the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
in late May.
The meeting took place as the
army continued trying to unravel who was
responsible for three major bomb blasts in the
middle of Yangon three weeks ago. Although the
junta says less than 20 people died in the
explosions, there were more than 60 victims,
including several soldiers.
The
explosions, at several key commercial centers in
the heart of Yangon, have rattled the regime. So
stunned and shocked were Myanmar's military
leaders that they have been lashing out at
everyone: ethnic rebel groups, students, the US
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Thailand
have all been blamed.
"The regime is still
in the dark as to who was behind the bombs and are
chasing their tails," said another Asian diplomat
in Yangon.
Than Shwe has taken control of
the investigations, but his protege, Yangon
commander and head of the new military
intelligence branch, General Myint Swe, is in
charge of the day-to-day operations with the help
of the 11th Light Infantry Division based in the
capital.
"The generals do not seem to
trust the police to investigate the incident,"
according to Thai military intelligence sources.
The regime has also sought assistance from
a former senior military intelligence officer,
Major General Kyaw Win, who was deputy
intelligence chief until his boss, Khin Nyunt, was
arrested and his supporters purged.
But
the regime has shunned offers of assistance from
abroad, rejecting Thailand's help in the
investigation and Washington's private offer of
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) forensic
expertise. Chinese experts, however, are helping
behind the scenes, according to sources in Yangon.
Many diplomats in the capital believe the
regime will never really discover who was
responsible for the bombs. Since the blasts, there
have been rumors of other bombs being discovered
and defused in time. A climate of fear exists in
Yangon.
"Everyone is too frightened to
talk, businessmen are keeping quiet and several
top policemen are lying low and trying to get
up-country for cover," said a foreign businessman
with close links to the regime. Several other
businessmen have been arrested and are being
interrogated in the country's infamous Insein
prison.
With threats of fresh bomb attacks
having emerged in Yangon in recent weeks, flights
in and out of the city are now being searched
thoroughly for explosives.
The capital has
become eerily empty since the blasts. Far fewer
people than usual dare to step out to shop at the
supermarkets, eat at restaurants or attend
parties, according to Yangon residents. Taxis
drivers are complaining that there are few
potential customers.
And with the
country's military rulers preoccupied with the
probe, the two top generals, Than Shwe and Maung
Aye, have reportedly put aside their differences
for now. "Thura Shwe Mann's recent promotion has
not been announced because Maung Aye wants it
delayed," according to a military analyst in
Yangon.
But further changes to the ruling
SPDC and the cabinet are also in the pipeline,
according to government officials. So far six
regional commanders have been shuffled, but the
key posts, including the crucial post of Yangon
commander, remain unchanged.
The changes
are almost certain to see Maung Aye's people
replaced by Than Shwe loyalists - though without
reducing the fine balance of power between the
men.
"The present delay means that the two
top men cannot agree on who should get the key
positions," said a Southeast Asian diplomat who
has dealt with Myanmar's leaders for years. But,
he said, it is only a matter of time before a new
power shift emerges with army chief Thura Shwe
Mann taking a pivotal role.
Over the past
six months there have been several major shake-ups
of the cabinet, with ministers close to former
intelligence chief Khin Nyunt purged. The
intelligence apparatus has been completely
dismantled.
Thousands of former
intelligence officers and foot soldiers are out of
work and desperate, while 40 of Khin Nyunt's top
officers and aides have been sentenced to more
than 100 years in jail for economic crimes and
have had most of their valuables, including their
wives' jewelry, confiscated.
The
witch-hunt against Khin Nyunt loyalists has upset
many in the military and police, who are convinced
that most of the charges are trumped-up and part
of a campaign against the former military
intelligence and their networks.
"It's a
form of cannibalism - the army is eating its own
flesh," said a retired Myanmar military officer.
This has all contributed to growing
resentment within the military and government.
"All we are doing is putting innocent people in
jail," a policeman investigating one of Khin
Nyunt's senior generals confided to friends.
This growing disillusionment within the
army has been fueled by the recent bomb blasts and
the failure to find the culprits quickly. The
military's trumpeted strength has also been
severely undermined.
Soldiers have stepped
up security around Yangon, especially at the
city's hotels and shopping arcades, but the mood
remains one of suspicion, fear and uncertainty.
Many people in Myanmar liken the
atmosphere to that in the period before
pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in 1988.
"Myanmar may be about to implode in the same way
the authoritarian Eastern European regimes did
more than a decade ago," predicts a senior
European diplomat in Yangon.
(Inter Press
Service) |
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