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Rice's unfortunate
choice
By Ralph A
Cossa
The recent decision by Condoleezza
Rice to skip the annual Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF)
ministerial-level dialogue on July 29 in the Lao
capital Vientiane represents a setback for US
efforts to persuade Southeast Asians that
Washington really cares about their region.
Rice instead plans to send her highly regarded
deputy, Robert Zoellick. He had a very successful
visit to six Southeast Asian nations in May, but
the decision by the secretary to skip her first
opportunity to meet face-to-face with all of her
10 ASEAN and other East Asian counterparts has
still widely been reported as "an unnecessary
snub".
While reports of her being "the
first secretary of state in 20 years to miss an
ARF meeting" are inaccurate – the ARF was not
established until 1994 and neither Warren
Christopher nor Madeleine Albright had a perfect
attendance record during the Bill Clinton years.
Rice's immediate predecessor, Colin Powell, did
attend all four ARF meetings during his tenure. He
found them "very, very useful", not only in
promoting regional multilateralism but for
providing the opportunity for important side
meetings. Powell used meetings with his North
Korean counterpart to restore dialogue and used
another side meeting to sign a joint declaration
with all 10 ASEAN foreign ministers promising
cooperation in the "war on terrorism" (in which
Southeast Asia remains a second front).
The reaction to Rice's "snub" was
predictable: "Condoleezza Rice: Too busy to care
about Southeast Asia?" read one headline. "The
country's top diplomat, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice, apparently doesn't consider the
region important enough to warrant her personal
attention," cited one news report, further
opining, "For her to stay away in her first year
as the top American diplomat could even damage
US-ASEAN relations when there are concerns about
China's growing influence in the region."
ASEAN secretary general Ong Keng Yong
tried to put a positive spin on the news, stating,
"Bob Zoellick knows the region well and he will do
an excellent job." He acknowledged, however, "The
Lao hosts are still trying to persuade her to
attend," further observing that her failure to
appear "will be seen as unfortunate".
One
country that is no doubt delighted by the
announcement is China. Rice's absence will make
the shadow cast by the presence of her Chinese
counterpart all the larger and more significant.
In contrast to Washington, Beijing has been
conducting a diplomatic offensive in Southeast
Asia. President Hu Jintao visited Indonesia,
Brunei and the Philippines in April and National
Peoples Congress chairman Wu Bangguo visited
Singapore and Malaysia in May. Chinese Foreign
Minister Li Zhaoxing also met with his ASEAN
colleagues at the Asia-Europe ministerial meeting
in Kyoto in May, and earlier in the year Chinese
Premier Wen Jiabao visited Indonesia, where he met
with ASEAN colleagues attending a special leaders
meeting on tsunami relief efforts. Beijing, again
unlike Washington, has also acceded to ASEAN's
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), making
China eligible to attend this December's first
East Asia Summit in Malaysia.
By contrast,
Rice made a quick 18-hour visit to Thailand "to
show how much the United States cares about
Southeast Asia" during her early July swing
through Northeast Asia. In Phuket, in response to
repeated questions, she explained, to virtually no
one's satisfaction, that "other essential travel
... in roughly the same time frame" precluded her
participation. (The New York Times reports that
she has an Africa trip planned in the days before
the ARF meeting but would be back in Washington
prior to Zoellick's departure for Laos).
Southeast Asians are also still reserving
judgment on the State Department's new assistant
secretary for East Asia, Christopher Hill, who
made his first official visit to the region in
late May to attend the preparatory ARF senior
officials meeting. While the affable Hill
reportedly made a good impression with his ASEAN
colleagues, many have expressed concern privately
about his Northeast Asia and European orientation
– he was previously ambassador to Poland and then
South Korea and is currently dual-hatted as senior
US representative to the six-party talks and thus
chief negotiator with North Korea on its nuclear
program. These talks are continuing in Beijing
this week.
These concerns were reinforced,
no doubt unintentionally, when Hill rushed off
after the Vientiane meeting to Europe for an
"EU-US strategic dialogue on East Asia", which
focused not surprisingly on Northeast Asia issues.
In response to a question about US attitudes
toward multilateralism in East Asia (which implied
the US was not supportive since this "might reduce
its bilateral leverage"), Hill asserted, "We are
very, very much supporting multilateral structures
in Asia." Southeast Asians would have appreciated
this comment more, however, had it been delivered
in Brunei rather than Brussels.
Some
pundits are tying Rice's decision to continuing US
dissatisfaction with ASEAN's handling of the
contentious issue of Myanmar's scheduled
assumption of the ASEAN (and, by extension, ARF)
chair in mid-2006. (Laos, as current chair, will
host the July ARF meeting in Vientiane before
handing the chairmanship to Malaysia, which will
host the summer 2006 meeting before yielding the
chair to the Philippines, alphabetically next in
line. Myanmar, under pressure, stepped down from
the role on Wednesday.) The US had made it clear
that it would not send senior officials to any
meeting chaired by Yangon. Informal discussions
with ASEAN officials suggest that a deal had
already been reached for Yangon to announce its
intention to skip its turn in the chair before
Wednesday's official ASEAN announcement on
Myanmar.
If Rice's decision to skip this
year's ARF meeting was aimed at putting pressure
on ASEAN to culminate this agreement, this seemed
likely to backfire. At a minimum, a Rice no-show
undermines the Zoellick/Hill message that the US
intends to stay engaged in Southeast Asia.
As one Singaporean security analyst noted,
"Dr Rice's absence should not come as a surprise
because President George W Bush's
unilateral-focused administration had downgraded
the importance of multilateral forums like the
ARF." In truth, during its first four years, the
Bush administration was a strong proponent of East
Asia multilateralism. Powell's perfect attendance
at the ARF was matched by Bush's at the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders'
meeting, something his predecessor (who
established the forum) failed to do.
But
in Asia, perception frequently trumps reality, and
Rice's ill-conceived decision to skip her first
ARF meeting regrettably will reinforce all the
wrong perceptions at a time when Southeast Asians
are seeking reassurance of Washington's continuing
commitment in the face of a rising China.
Ralph A Cossa is president of
the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based
non-profit research institute affiliated with the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington and senior editor of Comparative
Connections, a quarterly electronic journal.
(Used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS) |
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