BANGKOK - Myanmar's top military leaders
are planning a massive shakeup in the army and
government in the coming weeks, according to
diplomats and close watchers of the reclusive
country.
The country's military ruler,
General Than Shwe, is also expected to stand down
as the junta's leaders pass on power to the next
generation of generals.
The planned
changes are intended to prepare the army for the
next phase in the country's move towards political
reform and the introduction of a civilian
administration.
A national convention is
set to resume drafting a new constitution before
the end of the year and put to a referendum, with elections
to be held within the next 12
months.
The changes in government and the
army are the most dramatic since the military
seized power 17 years ago. The top general is
reportedly planning to give up at least one of the
three key posts he holds - chairman of the State
Peace and Development Council (as the junta calls
itself), supreme commander of the army, and
defense minister.
"We expect Than Shwe to
relinquish his position as defense minister in the
forthcoming reshuffle," said a senior Southeast
Asian diplomat who has regular contact with the
regime.
Than Shwe recently told the
visiting Thai army's supreme commander, General
Chaisit Shinawatra, that he would retire soon and
that General Thura Shwe Mann would take over as
the country's leader.
There are increasing
doubts about Than Shwe's health. Six months ago he
had a mild stroke, but has recovered. Dr Kyaw
Myint, the health minister and Than Shwe's
personal physician, visits him every day to
monitor his medical condition, according to family
friends.
Time appears to be catching up
with the 75-year-old-senior general, according to
diplomats who recently met him. When he met
visiting Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid
Albar in early October, the general could not say
more than a few words before gasping for breath
and wheezing.
Than Shwe is known to suffer
from hypertension and is a diabetic. "He's subject
to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels
get out of control," an army doctor recently told
Inter Press Service (IPS).
This may have
prompted the senior general to take a back seat
for the time being, but although he may even
retire as the SPDC chairman, he is unlikely to
give up the post of supreme commander of the army.
"Even if Than Shwe officially retires he
will not give up his power. Instead he'll remain
the grey eminence behind the throne, along the
lines of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the years
before his death," said independent Myanmar
analyst Win Min, who is based in Chiang Mai,
Thailand.
Chief of General Staff Thura
Shwe Mann is tipped to replace General Maung Aye
as the army's commander-in-chief, paving the way
for him to take the reigns of power some time next
year and mark control of the military by the next
generation of army officers. Thura Shwe Mann
recently led a high-profile delegation on a visit
to Bangladesh.
Thura Shwe Mann will head
the new triumvirate of military leaders, supported
by the prime minister, General Soe Win, and
secretary one, General Thein Sein.
"This
is the new generation of military leaders who are
being readied to take over power," according to a
senior Indian diplomat who deals with Yangon. But,
they warn, this group of generals lack the manners
and intelligence of their superiors.
"These men are uncouth, uneducated and
only know how to bark orders," said a former
Indian diplomat who has been based in Yangon
previously and knows the new generals well.
In recent weeks, the second-most powerful
general, Maung Aye, has dominated the front pages
of the government-controlled newspapers, with Than
Shwe increasingly less prominent. "Maung Aye's mug
is everywhere in the Burmese media - a clear sign
that he has strengthened his influence and control
within the junta," according to a senior Western
Yangon-based diplomat.
But other diplomats
and analysts believe this is only a ploy by Than
Shwe until he is ready to resume his central role
and become the country's first president under the
new constitution that is expected to be adopted
early next year. "Than Shwe is only giving Maung
Aye enough rope to hang himself," according to a
Southeast Asian diplomat who closely follows
events in Yangon.
Maung Aye is currently
being allowed to run things and take the blame for
any future mess. Than Shwe will then re-emerge
from the shadows, according to Thai military
intelligence.
It is clear that the
country's economy is in dire straits. Inflation is
spiralling out of control. An acute shortage of
diesel oil in the past few weeks has forced prices
to rise astronomically and fuel inflation,
especially the cost of imported consumer goods.
"Prices in the supermarket have doubled since the
beginning of the month," a Yangon housewife, Cho
Cho complained to IPS.
Observers believe,
though, that the new generation of military
leaders is even less likely than its predecessors
to give up power. So the chances of significant
political reform, and even the release of
pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remain a
distant hope.
