An aging general's warning
bell By
Fabio Scarpello
MANILA
- Sneers followed former general Fortunato Abat's
declaration last week of a transition government
in the Philippines. But due to the ongoing
political crisis and the history of military
intervention in civilian affairs, Abat's move is a
symptom of a deep unease rather than a laughing
matter, and should not be ignored.
At 80,
he is an odd revolutionary. And his coup was a
rather odd takeover - he did not take over
anything when, at midnight
December 12-13, he declared
himself president of the transitional government
of the Philippines.
Abat - also a former
defense chief and envoy to Beijing - merely asked
the police and the military, as well as the
people, to stop supporting the government of
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. "I am urging
the people to stop following the orders of Arroyo
and instead join our cause," he told a crowd of
300 gathered to listen to his speech at the
exclusive Club Filipino in Manila.
His
appeal has largely fallen on deaf ears, and - as
he and his inner circle face sedition charges -
his coup/protest has been belittled by politicians
and most of the media.
Presidential
spokesman Ignacio Bunye described Abat's move as
"unfortunate and pathetic" while some members of
the cabinet called him "senile". In the media, the
former general has been described as a "fish bone
stuck in the throat of the government", a
"nuisance" and an "old general that just would not
accept fading away".
Yet, though Abat is
not a menace to the government authority in the
conventional sense of the word, his action is an
alarm bell that the government would be naive to
dismiss.
Abat is the latest sign of a
breakdown of the political discourse in a country
gripped by an ongoing crisis and mired by weak
institutions. Furthermore, his "white coup"
followed months of rumors about potential military
interventions. These rumors cannot be simply
brushed under the carpet in a country where the
military has often played an active role in
national politics.
Political
crisis In his statement, "I Fear Not the
Night Before the Dawn", released after his brief
arrest Thursday, Abat said he was being detained
because "I dared to heed the longing cry of 85
million Filipinos for a man who would lead them
out of the tyranny of corruption and incompetence
of the present administration."
And, he
suggested: "Arroyo violated the code of ethics by
cheating and stealing. She has no moral ascendancy
to run the country." Allegations that Arroyo
cheated her way to victory in the 2004 election
are at the core of the current political crisis.
However, the root of the problem can be traced to
the ousting of former president Joseph Estrada in
2001, which paved the way to government for
then-vice president Arroyo.
Estrada's
supporters' refusal to accept the 2001 de-facto
overthrow of their man has been followed by their
refusal to accept Arroyo's controversial 2004
election victory. The president's legitimacy has
been questioned since her first day in office.
The doubts turned into open accusation in
June when recordings of wiretapped telephone
conversations, known as the "Hello Garci" tapes,
surfaced. The tapes recorded a conversation the
president had with Virgilio Garcilliano, a senior
official of the Commission on Elections.
Arroyo has admitted having spoken with
Garcilliano, but has denied any wrongdoing. Still,
for the anti-Arroyo camp, the tapes are proof she
rigged the vote.
The last six months have
been a long political battle. The president
reached a low point July 8 when powerful former
supporters switched sides and asked her to resign.
Arroyo went on to fight another day and has since
survived three impeachment attempts in parliament
and somehow stabilized her position.
The
opposition, however, has not laid down arms, and
has tried to move the battle from the courtroom to
the streets. But the politically motivated rallies
have proved to be small compared to the "People
Power" that brought down dictator Ferdinand Marcos
in 1986 and forced Estrada to resign five years
later.
Still, there is no doubt that
Arroyo has lost the support of the majority of
Filipinos. According to a November 27 to December
4 survey by a private polling firm, Social Weather
Stations, Arroyo is the most unpopular president
in the post-Marcos era.
According to some
analysts, her survival has been unwittingly helped
by the opposition, which is fragmented and has
never managed to offer an organized alternative.
The opposition includes left-leaning sympathizers,
the so-called "middle force," as well as Estrada
diehards.
On the other hand, most
Manila-based political commentators say the
crucial elements in the equation have been the
neutral stand maintained throughout the crisis by
the influential Roman Catholic Church and the
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
However, neither of these two institutions
are monolithic and rumors of military coups are
rife.
Danger of military
coup Abat's call for a "peaceful" defection
was never meant to trigger a traditional coup
d'etat with tanks rolling along the streets of
Manila. Yet, soon after his appeal, two military
colonels related to Abat were relived of their
duties as of December 15.
The pair are Col
Victor Abat, deputy commander of the 702nd Brigade
based in Nueva Ecija, and Col Nar Caringal,
commander of the Marine Support and Escorts
Battalion. The two are Abat's son and the brother
of Abat's son-in-law, respectively.
Abat's
son-in-law, Chief Superintendent Jaime Caringal,
who is head of the police Civil Security Group,
has denied allegations he was planning to join a
coup plot, and said he continues to support the
chain of command.
According to local
reports, Lt-Gen Hermogenes Esperon, head of the
Filipino Army, said he ordered the relief of Col
Abat "for enjoining others to join
destabilization" via telephone messages. In Col
Caringal's case, the Marine chief, Maj-Gen Renato
Miranda, said he was relieved of his position for
reasons unrelated to coup talks.
Regardless of the real or presumed threat
of Abat, rumors of possible military moves have
gripped Manila in the last few months.
Abat's bursting onto the scene followed
allegations a general and four colonels had been
identified as leaders of an alleged plot to unseat
Arroyo. The alleged takeover was meant for the
weekend of December 10-11, but did not
materialize, supposedly because it was uncovered
by troops loyal to Arroyo.
Speculation of
a possible putsch has also been fueled by the
escape of Marine Capt Nicanor Faeldon last
Wednesday. Faeldon was a member of the Magdalo
rightist military faction that mounted a brief
mutiny against Arroyo on July 27, 2003.
The coup consisted of 300 disgruntled
soldiers and low-rank officers occupying the
Oakwood Premier Ayala Center in Makati City's
central business district, as a protest against
the president and the high level of corruption in
the AFP. The mutiny ended some 30 hours later with
a peaceful surrender.
In a letter released
to the media immediately after his escape, Faeldon
said he fled to "continue the fight for a credible
government". Reports have since linked him to more
potential plotters.
Among those who have
recently raised the alarm is Frank Chavez, former
solicitor general under president Corazon Aquino.
In early December, Chavez warned that a coup
supported by at least 85% of the armed forces was
very likely in the next three months.
On
December 18, the Philippine Star newspaper quoted
anonymous sources within the police saying that
roughly 70% of the middle and junior officers
graduated from the Philippine National Police
(PNP) Academy have agreed to join movements aimed
at removing the current government. It also
reported that both the PNP and AFP headquarters
were reinforced with extra troops last weekend.
Factions of the Armed Forces of the
Philippines have a history of taking sides in
active politics. The role of the AFP was
instrumental in ending both the dictatorship of
Marcos and the presidency of Estrada.
Branches of the military are also
responsible for no fewer than a dozen coup
attempts since 1986. Former president Fidel Ramos
said he helped thwart at least nine coup attempts
during the 1980s, when he was minister of defense
under Aquino.
However - despite the rumors
and the history - the likelihood of a successful
military putsch in Manila is remote. Amid the
difficulties, the country has made progress in its
democratization, and there are clear signs that a
military adventure would not be supported by the
people.
Furthermore, the heads of the AFP
and PNP have repeatedly pledged their support to
Arroyo and the constitution.
Fabio
Scarpello, AKI - ADN Kronos international
Southeast Asia correspondent, member of the UK
Union of Journalists, member of the Jakarta
Foreign Correspondents Club.
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