DENPASAR, Bali - Following a
stellar 2004-05 holiday season that began a
record-shattering rebound from the October 2002
terrorist bombings, Bali's tourism industry is
having a humbug Christmas this year.
The
October 1 suicide attacks on popular restaurants
in Jimbaran and Kuta have plunged Bali's US$3
billion tourism industry, providing 60% of family
incomes on this island of nearly a million people,
into depression.
The latest bombings
killed fewer than two dozen innocents, compared
with more than 200 in 2002, but that hasn't
stopped the
slide.
"The body count is irrelevant," said Jeremy Allan,
author of Bali Blues (Media Makara), a new
book about the 2002 bombings with a postscript on
the 2005 attacks.
"The images on
television screens were similar, though this time
the iconic image was a face cut to ribbons by
shrapnel, not a body livid with third degree
burns. It was enough to make anyone change their
travel plans."
Bali Hotels Association
(BHA) chairman Michael Burchett reports, "Bookings
for the holiday season are just below last year's
levels, but ahead of 2002." Travelers seem to be
delaying decisions, "so we are expecting a lot of
late pick up." said Burchett, also general manager
of the Conrad Bali. He added that a lack of
flights also hurts.
"The airlines do not
seem to have the same confidence that we do in
Bali, and they have not increased capacity as they
have done in past years during this busy period.
It appears the demand is there."
But
windshield surveys of prime tourist areas Sanur,
Kuta and Nusa Dua indicate the holiday statistics,
barring drastic late pick up, will be as grim as
the rainy season skies. Citing reports from
colleagues around the island, a veteran star hotel
general manager reports room occupancy is running
below 40%, compared to virtually full houses a
year ago.
That figure is consistent with
overseas arrivals for November, down 43%
year-on-year. (December statistics won't be
available until next month.) Worse, the arrivals
gap grew from 37% in October, indicating that the
longer people thought about the suicide attacks,
the fewer chose Bali.
Air Paradise
lost As after the 2002 bombing, Indonesian
visitors are softening the blow. But arrivals from
Bali's top three overseas markets - Japan,
Australia and Taiwan - accounting for more than
half of 2005 arrivals before the bombings, fell
nearly 60% from November last year. Unofficial
flag carrier Air Paradise, which lifted spirits as
well as tens of thousands of Australians on
package holidays after the 2002 bombs, shut down
last month.
Visitor numbers from the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations are less
scary, off a shade below 40% from last year. Cheap
airfares help, especially for Malaysia where
Malaysia Air and Air Asia go head-to-head. But the
comments of one holidaymaker from Singapore may
indicate a trend.
"I was in London during
the bombings there, and you can't let those things
scare you," Rehana Sarwar said, lounging in the
nearly empty, football pitch-sized pool at the
Hard Rock Hotel with her five-year-old son. "I've
always dreamed of coming to Bali." So she came in
October, terrorists be darned, she said, adding,
"I couldn't get a booking to Phuket [in
Thailand]." Just as Bali benefited from the
December 2004 tsunami that hit rival resorts in
the Indian Ocean, those destinations stand to gain
now from Bali's woes.
Bali's stunning
recovery in just over two years following the 2002
bombings defied experts who predicted the island
would need 10 years or more. Optimists, such as
authoritative website Balidiscovery.com, point out
that this November's foreign arrivals of 62,705
are nearly double the 31,497 of November 2002.
"The impact of the incident on October 1
has not been at the same level as 2002," BHA's
Burchett said, "and recovery is expected to be
much quicker. We believe, as most other countries
that have experienced the same challenges, that
the world is a very different place, and that the
traveling public will not be intimidated by the
criminals who act in this way."
Target
market? One terrorist incident meant Bali
had fallen victim to an unfortunate global trend,
but a second set of attacks suggest that Bali is a
preferred target. Burchett vehemently rejects that
argument: "We feel that at times Bali is unfairly
singled out by the press, and given overexposure
in exaggerated reports."
But Haji Bambang,
the head of Kuta's minority Muslim community
recognized worldwide for his heroism rescuing
victims of 2002 blasts, observes, "Bali is a
perfect place for [Islamic terrorists] to send
their message." Even a bomb in Jakarta doesn't get
nearly the global attention of a blast among
Bali's polyglot of international tourists.
Furthermore, terrorists (and many
Indonesians) commonly believe foreigners and
Bali's Hindu majority suffer most from attacks and
their aftermath, forgetting Bali's many Muslims,
such as Haji Bambang, working in tourism.
Recognizing their situation requires
concerted action, Bali's tourism stakeholders held
a two-day meeting earlier this month to revamp the
Bali Tourism Board, the industry's public-private
umbrella organization. Among other things,
delegates voted for research into the island's
unique selling proposition. But market
repositioning is unlikely to change terrorists'
perceptions.
When author Allan, a longtime
Jakarta resident, moved to Bali to begin work on
Bali Blues in November 2002, he assured his
mother back in Canada that "Bali is now the safest
island on earth". After this year's attacks, Allan
told his mother Bali was still safe but admits,
"In 2003 my friends and I would say, 'One more
bomb and we are out of here.' Now, we say, 'How
long till the next one'?"
For Bali to
recover, Burchett said, "People need to have
confidence in us to provide the safest environment
possible in today's world, and to visit Bali to
experience the special uniqueness of this
culturally peaceful Island of the gods."
But details of the 2005 attacks make them
particularly frightening. The 2002 bombings were a
relatively complex and expensive operation. Police
can hope to thwart such plots. Suicide bombings
are far easier to organize, and, as with the
experience of Israel - the most security-conscious
nation on earth - illustrates, far more difficult
to prevent. Two of the October 1 targets were
beachfront cafes, highlighting the difficulty of
safeguarding public beaches and the wider issue of
balancing security with a holiday atmosphere.
"The last attack was very bad for
families," said a hotel manager (who asked for his
name and employer to be withheld). "The first
attack was at a nightclub; you could not go to
nightclubs. The last one was restaurants, and
everybody eats." The manager said some people have
concluded "there is no really safe place in Bali".
Australian 30-something Maha Noore, a Bali
regular since the 1990s, said she'll come back.
"But it won't be the high life anymore. No more
visits to La Lucciola or Ku De Ta," - top
restaurants in trendy Seminyak - "too conspicuous
as targets." She also reports a friend recently
visited Bali's Ritz-Carlton, barely leaving the
hotel grounds. "Tragic," Noore said. "While he
missed out on most of the culture" - which is
Bali's unique selling proposition - "more
importantly, few of his Australian dollars
filtered through to local small businesses."
MICE flee One owner of a
corporate events organizer half jokingly welcomed
staff to a year-end dinner as veterans of "our
final program in Bali". The MICE (meetings,
incentives, conventions and exhibitions) business
had returned to Bali along with the tourists by
mid-2005, but now corporate travel planners simply
can't take the risk - or get insurance against it
- to hold events in Bali, ripping a big slice out
of top hotels' income.
As Asia regional
manager of consumer banking for a leading
financial multinational, Chin Shih-tang touted
Bali for a global executive shindig in 2001. He
believes resorts in Nusa Dua, the five-star hotel
preserve at the southern tip of the island, would
still be safe for an event, but Chin cites other
concerns, some not on his checklist five years
ago.
"First, arrivals at the airport. Is
there a secure, private airport for the big shots'
corporate jet to arrive? Apart from the bigs, even
though the travel agents would spread them out,
there would be a number of flights with several
people from the company on each one. The other
danger area would be transportation to and from
the resort site. Again, a fairly large number of
individuals on chartered buses, which would be
quite vulnerable to car bombs or accidentally
being in the wrong place at the wrong time."
With the holiday tourists coming, albeit
in reduced numbers, Bali's police are on high
alert, well aware that Indonesian radicals have
struck other islands during previous Christmas
seasons. Haji Bambang believes, "One more attack
and Bali is dead." But the hotel manager is more
sanguine: "When we pass Christmas and New Year
without more incidents, maybe we will get more
confident. Maybe then we can see the light at the
end of the tunnel."
Gary LaMoshi
has worked as a broadcast producer and print
writer and editor in the US and Asia. Longtime
editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com,
he's also a contributor to Slate and
Salon.com.
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