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    Southeast Asia
     Feb 4, 2006
Thai premier's $1.85bn headache
By Tony Allison

BANGKOK - When the family of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra sold off their stake in giant telecommunications company Shin Corp for 73.3 billion baht (US$1.85 billion), one of the reasons cited was to take the political heat out of accusations leveled at the premier of conflict of interest.

But far from silencing his critics, the sale has triggered a veritable



storm that has added considerably to the voices calling for Thaksin to resign.

In the first major public indication of dissatisfaction within Thaksin's ruling Thai Rak Thai party, Minister of Culture Uraiwan Thienthong resigned on Friday. "The political situation is not good at the moment, and as the minister of culture I have to uphold the ethics of good governance," Uraiwan told a news conference.

The resignation, which was unexpected, came ahead of a large anti-government rally to be held in the capital Bangkok on Saturday led by Sondhi Limthongkul, a media baron who is one of Thaksin's most outspoken critics.

Sondhi, who accuses Thaksin's government of corruption and abusing its powers, received a fillip on Thursday when the Central Administrative Court ordered state-run CAT Telecom to stop blocking the signal used to broadcast Sondhi's satellite talk show, which has become the focal point of his campaign against Thaksin. The court's decision followed a petition filed by Sondhi, host of the Thailand Weekly talk show.

But back to Thaksin's problems.

In a mark of escalating dissatisfaction with the government, more than 200 academics from nine universities have signed an open letter condemning Thaksin's leadership and criticizing his exploitation of legal loopholes that allowed his family to sell Shin Corp's shares tax-free.

And Kaewsan Atiphoti, a Bangkok senator and drafter of the constitution, was due on Friday to deliver a letter to the House Speaker calling for Thaksin's impeachment. At this point such a move would fail, given Thai Rak Thai's domination of both houses of parliament, but after the resignation of the culture minister, further defections cannot be ruled out.

Saturday's protest, which is expected to attract hundreds of thousands of people with different axes to grind - from disgruntled teachers to human-rights activists - will culminate in a group led by Sondhi filing a royal petition with His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej through General Prem Tinsulanonda, chief of the privy councilors and statesman. The petition will ask His Majesty to replace Thaksin with a "respected and qualified figure".

For his part, Thaksin has brushed aside calls for him to step down. "Not in this lifetime will you see me resign. Everything will proceed according to the rules and regulations of this country," he said tersely at a Government House briefing. On another occasion he urged people to "calm down".

Just weeks ago the likelihood of Thaksin, into the second year of his second four-year term, resigning was indeed remote. But then came the fateful Shin Corp sale.

The market had been awash with talk of the Shinawatras divesting, and on January 21 the deal was finally concluded: Temasek Holdings, the investment arm of the Singaporean government, paid $1.85 billion to buy a 49.6% stake in Shin Corp from Thaksin's children and other family members.

The deal was the biggest in Thai history, and immediately set off an outcry. While some complained of foreigners getting their hands on the country's assets and posing a security risk, others focused on the deal itself.

Initially the bone of contention was that the deal was tax-free. Then allegations of insider trading and even breaking the law were leveled.

On January 20, Ample Rich, a holding vehicle established by Thaksin and registered in the British Virgin Islands, sold 164.6 million shares in Shin Corp to two Shinawatra siblings for at-par value of 1 baht per share. The next working day, Panthongtae and Pinthongta Shinawatra both sold these Shin shares to Temasek Holdings for 49.25 baht each as part of the buyout of the 49.6% stake in Shin from the Shinawatra and Damapong families.

The main sale to Temasek was tax-free under a waiver on capital gains for transactions on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), but it is not clear whether the Ample Rich transactions should have been exempt from taxes.

Officials from the Revenue Department, the Finance Ministry, the SET and the Securities and Exchange Commission have held briefings to explain the regulatory issues involved, but without settling all doubts. In fact they just added to the confusion.

The Shinawatra children have also been accused of insider trading and disclosure violations related to their Shin shareholdings held through Ample Rich. These issues also have not been explained to everyone's satisfaction.

Billionaire - and that's dollars - Thaksin rose to power and swept into his second term on the back of his hands-on chief executive officer-style of governance, and his populist "Thaksinomics" policies. But growing numbers of people have become disenchanted with the premier's style, which to many borders on arrogance.

"In this [Shin sale] case, perception matters more than the substance," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, was quoted in the Bangkok newspaper ThaiDay as saying. "What disturbs people the most is the way Thaksin has gone about it [the deal]. It was the way he was almost gloating ... It's the gloating and the double standards."

Thaksin is by no means down. But his family's billion-dollar deal could prove to be the catalyst leading to his downfall.

Tony Allison is a Thailand-based correspondent.

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Thailand's $1.8bn mystery (Jan 21, '06)

The politics of shopping
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