China's uneasy alliance with
Myanmar By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's Prime Minister General
Soe Win has returned from Beijing claiming
relations between the two countries have now
entered a new era. But despite that upbeat
assessment, Beijing remains concerned that its
Asian ally is potentially unstable and could
endanger regional security.
In a statement
released to the media soon after his arrival in
Yangon on Saturday, Soe Win said Beijing strongly supported
Yangon, and would oppose any
attempts by the United States and Europe to have
Myanmar placed on the United Nations Security
Council's agenda.
Beijing rolled out the
red carpet for the Myanmar leader during his
four-day visit when he met with President Hu
Jintao, Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Li
Zhaoxing. Several significant agreements were also
signed, strengthening bilateral economic ties,
transfer of technology and increased aviation
links.
"This visit was crucial for
Myanmar's military leaders who are feeling
increasingly isolated and under attack from the
international community and growing pressure from
its ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations]
neighbors," said independent Myanmar analyst Win
Min, who is based in the northern Thai city of
Chiang Mai.
The trip was originally
planned for last year but postponed by China
because of tensions between the two countries. At
that time, Beijing was concerned about corruption
involving Chinese projects, including the
construction of a major container yard at Bhamo, a
deep-sea port at Kyakphu, and the highway
connecting the port, according to Asian diplomats
in Yangon. Beijing was also frustrated by a
perceived lack of cooperation by Myanmar in oil
and gas exploration.
In the face of
international sanctions, Yangon has become
increasingly dependent on its neighbors for trade
and political support. "We have good relations
with all our neighbors and that is what is
important, especially China, India and Thailand,"
Myanmar's Foreign Minister U Nyan Win said
recently.
Over the past year, China has
emerged as Yangon's most important ally, even
though there were tensions. Recent important deals
between Beijing and Yangon for oil and gas
extraction rights in western Myanmar seem to have
helped mend some of the problems between the two
countries. A gas pipeline is to be built from the
Indian Ocean to southwestern China's Yunnan
province.
Security matters, economic ties
and political support were all high on Soe Win's
agenda while in China. "Among the issues discussed
during Soe Win's visit to Beijing was
non-traditional security concerns," said a Chinese
diplomat. "Soe Win asked for help on how to manage
NGOs."
Myanmar's military leaders have
also been increasingly concerned about the role of
international aid agencies and non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) in their country. They
recently drew up a new set of guidelines for
international organizations and formed a special
ministerial committee, headed by the minister for
planning, to oversee their implementation.
Many diplomats in Yangon believe one of
Soe Win's main concerns was to seek Chinese
financial support to help the military regime
overcome its mounting economic difficulties,
intensified by the excessively expensive
relocation of the country's administrative and
military center from Yangon to Pyinmana, some 40
kilometers north.
"The junta is virtually
bankrupt and needs Chinese financial support to
help it overcome some of its immediate problems,"
said a Yangon-based Asian diplomat. They need more
soft loans to help fund the infrastructural needs
of the new capital, he said.
Many of the
telecommunications for the new center, including
the satellite and mobile-phone infrastructure, is
already being provided by Beijing.
Soe Win
appealed to his Chinese hosts to increase
investment in Myanmar and proposed the
establishment of two special economic zones, one
in Yangon and the other centered on the new
administrative capital, Pyinmana. The Myanmar
government has promised to provide insurance cover
for Chinese businesses in the country, according
to a senior Chinese government official.
Myanmar's premier urged China's leaders
and businessmen to increase their capital
investment in Myanmar, start new projects to help
build the country's economic capacity and step up
transfer of technology. Soe Win told his hosts
that Yangon was keen to have more Chinese
technical experts.
Senior Chinese
officials also discussed Myanmar's political
reform during the visit. "As a neighboring
country, China sincerely hopes that Myanmar can
continue to push forward with reconciliation at
home and realize economic development and social
progress," Wen reportedly told his counterpart
from Myanmar.
China has been disturbed by
the lack of progress on the junta's seven-stage
roadmap announced in August 2003 by the then prime
minister, General Khin Nyunt. Beijing was also
dismayed by the recent adjournment until the end
of this year of the National Convention, which is
drawing up a new constitution.
While China
believes political reform is an internal matter
for the Myanmar regime, it fears that excessive
delays in the national-reconciliation process are
only likely to increase instability in its
southern neighbor.
China's leaders fear
that social unrest in Myanmar would dramatically
affect their southern provinces. More than 200,000
Chinese migrants have crossed into Myanmar in the
past decade, according to senior Chinese
officials. Some Western analysts believe there
could be as many as a million Chinese now resident
in Myanmar.
Most of them are there
unofficially. They are running small businesses
throughout northern Myanmar, Mandalay and even
Yangon. Technical experts, workers and even
farmers have migrated across the border in search
of work. Many of the market sellers in the border
region, especially in the border towns such as
Mongla, are also Chinese.
China's main
strategic concerns are to see Myanmar introduce
political reform and boost economic development.
"The last thing Beijing needs is thousands of
Chinese migrants flooding back across the border,
increasing the number of restless, unemployed
Chinese peasants looking for work in the country's
main urban centers and adding to China's growing
social and rural unrest," Win Min said.
A
senior Chinese official said: "China's leaders
understand that the [Myanmar] military regime is
illegitimate and lacks the support of the majority
of the people."
But despite these
reservations, Beijing has now decided that
appearing publicly to support Yangon is the most
effective way to maintain its influence in
Myanmar.
During his visit, Soe Win
appealed to the Chinese leaders to help ensure
Myanmar did not get put on the Security Council
agenda in the near future. He even asked Beijing
to intercede on Yangon's behalf and enlist
Russia's support on this issue as well.
China lost one of its main allies in
Myanmar when the former intelligence chief and
prime minister Khin Nyunt and his supporters were
arrested and purged at the end of 2004. Since his
fall, China has tried unsuccessfully to find
another ally within the regime.
"Their
greatest fear now is that Myanmar's second in
command, General Maung Aye, who is seen as
pro-India, may gain in influence," said a senior
Asian diplomat in Yangon. "Any suggestion that he
may take over from the country's main ruler
General Than Shwe sends them into an apoplectic
spin."
Yangon, anxious to balance its
dependence on its neighbors, is keen to maintain
good ties with Delhi. The generals hope the visit
next month of Indian President Abdul Kalam to
Myanmar - though largely symbolic - will help do
just that.
