THE ROVING EYE 'Get out'
ringing in Thaksin's ears By
Pepe Escobar
BANGKOK - A new mobile-phone
ring tone is all the rage among Thailand's urban
youth: "Thaksin! - Ok pai!" (Get out).
Human waves continued to yell the mantra at a
massive rally in a huge plaza in central Bangkok
on Monday, against the dramatic backdrop of the
golden spires of the Grand Palace.
What
began as a mobile talk show by journalist and
media entrepreneur Sondhi Limthongkul in the
autumn of 2005, denouncing the corruption and
abuse of power of the Thaksin Shinawatra
administration, has blossomed into live, via satellite,
via
SMS and via Internet, people power, a broad-based,
pro-democracy movement uniting a cross-section of
Thai public opinion.
The massive rally was
already on its second day Monday. The organizers,
the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), have
announced that the show will go on until the prime
minister resigns. PAD is asking the population to
join the rally every night after work.
On
Sunday, the Sanam Luang plaza was filled by a huge
crowd, with many people sporting the new
"official", white anti-Thaksin T-shirts, with the
words "We want Thailand back" in front and "Get
out" on the back.
High-school and
undergraduate students, trade unionists and
teachers mingled with peasants, Buddhist
fundamentalists and whole middle-class families
with their portable kitchens. On stage, a giant,
colorful collage of the masses charging against a
Frankenstein Thaksin chewing up a Thai flag would
certainly have found its place into a catalogue of
revolutionary art. In the crowd, intertwined with
Thai flags, all sorts of banners denounced
corruption and shady deals. Thaksin also doubled
as Adolf Hitler.
The action was
non-stop, the crowd kept informed by announcers onstage.
Speakers included Thaksin's mentor and former
patron, Chamlong Srimuang, a former Bangkok
governor and army general who last week joined
PAD. Chamlong is widely credited with launching
Thaksin's career.
Three small parties want
the prime minister to set up an independent
non-partisan committee dedicated to political
reform, or else they say they will boycott the
snap election called by the premier for April 2.
Thaksin has not said yes or no, he has just
promised to assign two underlings to study the
matter.
Spokesmen for PAD had to calm the
crowds after a reporter from iTV station (formerly
a Thaksin company, now a Singaporean company) said
on camera there were only 6,000 people at the
rally (at the time, there were at least 50,000) -
the same pattern of misinformation followed en
masse by state-owned media.
Small rallies
with at least 2,000 people also went on in most
Thai provinces. The crowd was kept constantly
informed of murky negotiations between the premier
and political parties. It was announced that
200,000 teachers would boycott the April 2
election, if it takes place at all, by not serving
as officials at polling stations. And some Thai
teachers will start a strike on Wednesday if
Thaksin has not resigned by then.
When Thai
social critic Sulak Sivalak asked the crowd to
have mercy on Thaksin "like we have mercy for our
dog", the roar of laughter was like thunder - similar
to when Senator Karun Saingam urged everyone
not to pay taxes, a reference to the tax-free
sale of the Shinawatras' Shin Corp to Singapore.
Nine senators onstage denounced the fact that more
than 60 senators were paid by Thaksin to appoint
members of independent organizations, including
the Electoral Commission. During the performance
of a satirical Chinese opera, the "Thaksin"
character said he had zombie slaves in both houses
of parliament. For the benefit of the global
media, the crowd is encouraged to also yell
"Thaksin! Get out!" in English.
Credibility dissolved With his
back against the wall and deserted by an array of
collaborators, Thaksin on Friday dissolved
parliament and called a snap general election for
April 2 - less than 24 hours after he said he
would never do it. Although admitting that the
political unrest may affect the country's economy,
his venom was once again directed at his critics:
"I can't stand it when mob rule tries to override
the law." The dissolution was one more dramatic
step down from his cascade of previous statements,
which went from "I will consider [resigning] in my
next reincarnation" to "I will die in office" and
then to "I won't step down until I can find a
successor who can run the country and the party."
The prime minister dissolved the House
because government intelligence agencies correctly
predicted - for the first time - that hundred of
thousands of protesters would start rallying on
Sunday, and the rally might last for days.
Thaksin's one and only remaining line of
defense is the ubiquitous quoting of the "19
million votes" he got in the last election about a
year ago. Last week Thai polls revealed he would
lose at least 10 million votes if an election were
held today. If the April 2 elections take place,
rural grassroots voters - Thaksin's base - expect
a wall of cash, and so do a coterie of
power-hungry, self-serving politicians. Thaksin's
Thai Rak Thai party would certainly win these
elections, but by a much narrower margin than in
early 2005.
Before dissolution of
the House, Thaksin had called for a special
joint session of parliament to debate the
ongoing political turbulence. But then it transpired
that the session would only discuss the response
of government agencies - the Revenue Department,
the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Securities
and Exchange Commission - and not the heart of the
matter itself: the Shinawatra family's extremely
dodgy web of stock transactions from Bangkok to
Singapore via the British Virgin Islands.
Thaksin's credibility was
definitely reduced after his family's tax-free January
sale of Shin Corp's shares to Singapore's
Temasek Holdings for US$1.85 billion. In effect, the
prime minister sold his business empire - which
includes concession rights for TV broadcasting, a
very profitable mobile-phone network and four
satellites - to a fund owned by the Singapore
government. This was widely interpreted as the
ultimate betrayal - a sale of national assets for
personal profit.
Bangkok's urban middle
class then drew the line: the "Thaksin! Get out!"
mantra means not only that the incumbent has lost
his mandate but his policies - dubbed Thaksinomics
- also have to go. A significant measure of the
prime minister's desperation is attested by a
remark at a recent closed-door session of his Thai
Rak Thai party, when he said "even hardened
criminals get their sentences commuted to half if
they eventually own up to having committed the
crime".
The now broad-based anti-Thaksin,
pro-democracy movement had already foreseen he
would dissolve the house - so the move was widely
interpreted as a desperate tactic to pre-empt the
current rally. Once again the prime minister
showed up on state-controlled radio and TV blaming
everyone but himself. But PAD maintains that only
Thaksin's resignation will do.
Endgame? One day before the
rally, cool, calm and collected in his house in
central Bangkok, Sondhi - the man who started it
all in September - stressed what Thailand's people
power was all about.
"We want political
reform. By having an election through the same
system, Thaksin will come back again because he
has more money than before, he has state power and
he's able to create more election fraud.
"On Friday, Thaksin went to see the King
in the evening, but the head of the Electoral
Commission admitted, 'I knew [about the house
dissolution] since the afternoon.'" Sondhi
insisted "this would not be a fair election
because Thaksin has not been fair since the
beginning".
As far as the opposition is
concerned: "The Democrat Party doesn't want to
fall in a trap and give Thaksin the legitimacy of
a fight in the political arena. They are saying
they don't accept the rules. Realistically, they
also know that if they enter the race they would
be clobbered. By announcing the refusal to join
the elections, they recognize the alliance to oust
Thaksin is gaining momentum."
And the
momentum is now spreading all over Thailand. "When
I had a rally in Phuket there were at least 40,000
people," Sondhi said. "It's an international city.
They told me to say it in English. When I cried
'Thaksin!' the whole crowd responded 'Get out!'
And now the same thing has started in Manila. It's
ironic, isn't it?"
The snap election
elicits a replay of Ferdinand Marcos' last days in
power in the Philippines. "The only difference
between the Philippines and Thailand is that the
Philippines didn't have a king to sort this out.
It's not easy for him - but it will be easier with
the current deadlock."
Sondhi sees the current
situation as a political stalemate. There's
wide expectation among the Bangkok elite that
His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej may step in. "Or the
military could step in. They are ready to step in
any time now." What would happen in this case? "We
would thank them for the sake of the nation. But
we would say, 'Return the power to the King,
immediately.'" Sondhi sees the Thai military
needing him to create this intervening role for
them.
Suppose Thaksin resigns, then what?
"The rally is demanding a neutral prime minister -
appointed by the King. And immediate political
reform." In case Thaksin does not resign, the
Marcos scenario will keep being played out.
Sondhi's military sources tell him "there is now a
strong coordination between the Royal Palace and
the military".
One day before the rally,
Sondhi said the breaking point would be 200,000
people in the streets yelling "Thaksin, get out."
It did happen on Sunday, by midnight, according to
the organizers. The rally is ongoing. Another
200,000 people may again be on the plaza by the
end of Monday, Tuesday, and the day after. The
endgame may be closer than anyone - including
Thaksin - may think.
(Copyright 2006 Asia
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