Thailand's calm before the
storm By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Laksanee Soithongsuk, dressed in
yellow and waving small Thai flags, cheered on
anti-government protesters as they marched on
Government House on Tuesday.
The
62-year-old shopkeeper has not been moved by the
opposition's charges against Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra of rampant corruption, selling
off valuable state assets to
foreigners, or even enriching
his family at the state's expense. Rather, she
said she has come out in defense of His Majesty
King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whom she believes has
been undermined by Thaksin's government.
"This
is about the King," said Laksanee.
A wide array of
special-interest groups have attached themselves
to the anti-government cause, ranging from anti-privatization
labor unions to media-freedom advocates to
a politically minded sect of fundamentalist
Buddhists. Yet Laksanee's motivations are an important
reminder of the allegations that Bangkok's middle
class first rallied around.
Last October, media
firebrand Sondhi Limthongkul first broke those
explosive allegations during his nationally televised
talk show, which back then was carried on a
state-run frequency. Thaksin vigorously denied the
allegations, but judging from interviews with
rally-goers many months later, the charges have
stuck and remain at the unspoken core of the
anti-government demonstrations.
Teeradat Waiprib, 66,
a retired Finance Ministry official who joined
Tuesday's rally, said: "Thai people love their king like
they love their fathers."
In
Tuesday's march, tens
of thousands of anti-government protesters converged on
Government House, vowing to stay put until the
caretaker prime minister unconditionally resigns
his office. Thaksin, meanwhile, was campaigning
upcountry for the snap elections he called for
April 2, and was not available to heed the
protesters' calls. Instead, they were greeted by a
massive banner wrapped around the perimeter of
Government House signed by thousands of his
supporters.
Despite warnings of potential
clashes between pro- and anti-government elements,
so far Thailand's colorful rendition of
people-power politics has been wholly peaceful. As
Thaksin bids to restore his democratic mandate
through general elections, which the opposition
has strategically boycotted, and his rally-going
opponents vow to hold vigil in front of his
offices until he unconditionally resigns,
Thailand's political gridlock appears to be stuck
in low gear.
In reality, however, the
political impasse has escalated dangerously,
raising the specter that the peaceful conflict
could soon veer toward violent confrontation.
Agent provocateur A mysterious
bomb that detonated last week in front of the
residence of Chief Privy Councilor General Prem
Tinsulanonda shocked Bangkok's elite. Prem, a
former prime minister, is widely seen as the
public conscience of the highly revered and
semi-reclusive Bhumibol.
The attack was widely interpreted by
Bangkok-based diplomats and Thai elites as an indirect assault
on the royal household - a
hitherto unimaginable development considering that Bhumibol is deeply
revered in Thai society.
Bhumibol has
not commented publicly on the escalating tensions,
but Privy Councilor General Surayud Chulanont had
conveyed before the mysterious bombing the
monarch's wishes for a speedy and peaceful
resolution to the conflict.
On Sunday, in
a surprising move, the Royal Household instructed
national television stations to rebroadcast
footage of Bhumibol's mediation of the bloody
political turbulence of May 1992, when soldiers
opened fire and killed hundreds of pro-democracy
protesters on the streets of Bangkok.
During that extraordinary meeting,
then-prime minister General Suchinda Kraprayoon
and the main protest leader, Chamlong Srimuang
(who is still active today), bowed before the
monarch and agreed to end their political
standoff. Many viewed the footage as a powerful
and pointed warning to both pro- and
anti-government elements quickly to arrive at a
compromise.
It is unclear how badly the
political situation would have to deteriorate
before Bhumibol felt it righteous and necessary to
intervene. The prime minister's opponents have
repeatedly appealed to Bhumibol to depose
Thaksin's caretaker government and appoint an
interim administration, as allowed for by Section
7 of the 1997 constitution.
But according
to a well-placed Bangkok-based diplomat with
high-level palace contacts, the Royal Household
has mixed feelings about the long-term
desirability of royal intervention against
Thaksin.
Thailand's other cataclysmic
uprisings and subsequent crackdowns, including the
bloody events of 1973, 1976 and 1992, were
likewise preceded by long periods of relative calm
as democracy activists and military governments
refused to budge to each other's demands.
In 1976, a rightist militia known as the
Red Gaurs unexpectedly descended on and killed
many leftist student activists at Bangkok's
Thammasat University after weeks of mainly
peaceful protests.
In 1992, Bangkok's 1st
Infantry Division peacefully held the line for
many weeks against democracy demonstrators
protesting against the then-military-run
government. When protesters started to become
violent by torching a police station and truck,
then-army commander General Issarapong Noonpakdi
called in the less-disciplined 9th Infantry
Division from Kanchanaburi province, which
brutally opened fire on demonstrators, killing as
many as 250 people.
Political observers
fear the unexplained bomb blast at the residence
of Prem, who has meticulously declined to side
either with Thaksin or with the protesters, could
similarly galvanize radical forces. The blast
comes in the wake of a number of other small-scale
bombs aimed against Thaksin's political opponents,
including one at the headquarters of Chamlong's
Buddhist fundamentalist "Dharma Army"
headquarters.
Similarly, a small bomb
exploded late last year outside the offices of
media mogul and government critic Sondhi. So far,
nobody has been seriously injured in any of the
low-grade blasts, nor have investigators
identified or nabbed any suspects.
Thaksin has
strongly denied any knowledge of the crude attacks,
and he immediately paid a high-profile personal
visit to Prem's residence after the latest
blast. It is unclear what was exchanged between
the two at the closed-door meeting. Nonetheless,
the mysterious bombing has stoked suspicions and
tensions on both sides of the political divide,
Bangkok-based political analysts said.
The
caretaker prime minister infuriated
anti-government protesters when he insinuated that
they might have had a hand in the blasts in hopes
of escalating the conflict. He has also said he
would not hesitate to declare a state of emergency
and suspend the constitution if protesters turned
violent - though legally such a move would require
Bhumibol's approval.
Who coups
whom? The incentive for a paroxysm of
violence and subsequent military intervention to
restore law and order, called either by Thaksin or
Bhumibol, has risen across the political spectrum.
Army commander Sonti Boonyaratglin has repeatedly
dispelled circulating coup rumors. But it is
increasingly unclear whether the recently
appointed commander is in total control of his
junior officers.
Bangkok-based
diplomats are now grappling to understand the
significance of recent military reshuffles, in which Thaksin
elevated many of his former army-class (Class 10)
school colleagues, apparently against the wishes
of Prem and the Privy Council. If army commander
Sonti hypothetically ordered the rank and file to
remove Thaksin from office, they said, it was
unclear whether his subordinates would step in
line unless the orders overtly and obviously came
from the King.
Indeed, some military
watchers contend that there is incentive for a
sort of counter-coup inside the army - perhaps
instigated by an eruption of social unrest - where
Thaksin's Class 10 loyalists seize power from the
traditional elites that through seniority now hold
the upper hand. As Thaksin's attempt to defuse
tensions through elections borders on farce
without the opposition's participation, attention
is increasingly on the murky happenings inside the
military.
Thaksin's bid to deflect the
mounting criticism hounding his caretaker
administration by holding unopposed general
elections seems increasingly farcical - even as he
promises he would amend hundreds of laws if he had
total control of parliament. The opposition's
decision to boycott the snap elections has,
perhaps disturbingly, undermined the legitimacy of
the democratic process. What is increasingly clear
is that Thaksin will not step down from office
without a fight, which seems an increasingly
likely prospect.
Unifying theme
Thailand's mainstream media
have largely glossed over the fact that the
majority of anti-government protesters are
rallying primarily around the monarchy and to a lesser degree
against the opposition's allegations of corruption or
nepotism. Since last year, "We love the King"
bumper stickers have popped up nationwide. And it
is no accident that the rallies held in Bangkok's
royal park (Sanam Luang) are awash in yellow, the
color of the Royal Household's flag.
In private conversations, many Thais
believe that apart from initiating a new round of
political reform that leads to better checks and
balances on elected politicians, the culmination
of the political impasse should also reflect
favorably on the future durability of the royal
institution.
As the 60-year anniversary
celebrations of Bhumibol's accession to the throne
approaches, which reigning monarchs from around
the world are expected to attend, sources close to
the palace said there was a definite time limit on
the current political tensions.
Neither
Thaksin nor his opponents seem willing to
negotiate a settlement, and as both sides
entrench, the risk that tensions could turn into
violence is rising. And at this juncture, it is
altogether unclear who will eventually win out.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times
Online's Southeast Asia Editor.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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