Filipinos get ready to cha-cha
again By Fabio Scarpello
MANILA - In the noisy opera house of
Philippine politics, there is a clear note for
political change. But President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo and her opponents are singing
from distinctly different librettos, and the
ensuing political cacophony makes the audience
long for an intermission.
While Arroyo
sings the praises for changing the political
system from a presidential to parliamentary one,
with her government overseeing the change, the
opposition, sections of the middle
class and the military are
crying out for the creation of an
extra-constitutional provisional government
consisting of a broad panel of special-interest
groups to orchestrate the reform.
Based on
the US model, the Philippine government currently
consists of a popularly elected president and vice
president and a bicameral legislature, consisting
of a 250-member House of Representatives and
24-member Senate. Under a parliamentary form of
government, a single-house parliament would elect
both the president and a prime minister, with the
latter holding executive power. The issue is how
to get there.
Presumably, there would be
an interim, transition administration while the
country moves from one form of government to the
next. Opposition politicians, civil-society
groups, and segments of the military have alleged
that the proposed move toward an Arroyo-headed
interim government is a cynical ploy designed to
allow her regime to remain in power after its
constitutionally mandated six-year term expires in
2010.
The debate rages against the
backdrop of Arroyo's declaration of a state of
emergency and temporary suspension of the
constitution, imposed in February, supposedly to
head off a military coup against her government.
The move, which significantly included a crackdown
on the press and the detention of accused
opposition members, further undermined Arroyo's
rapidly weakening democratic credentials. Arroyo
has in recent months been grilled by opposition
members over vote-rigging allegations related to
the hotly contested 2004 polls, which she won by a
narrow margin.
Latest cha-cha
dance The Philippines has been down this
road before. Former president Fidel Ramos had
urged an amendment to the constitution to allow
him to run for a second term and head off the
disaster of a president Joseph Estrada. After
years of the Ferdinand Marcos dictatorship, the
public viewed this as a potential power grab and
rose against his proposed charter change,
colorfully known as "cha-cha".
Some
Filipinos see the latest version of the cha-cha
dance in similar terms, noting that under the
parliamentary system, the democratically elected
prime minister - presumably one Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo? - would not be limited to one
term, but dependent on a majority support of one
house of parliament.
According to Arroyo
and her supporters, the charter change would
strengthen the role of political parties,
streamline lawmaking, and eliminate congressional
gridlock, which currently encumbers her
administration's efforts to pass new legislation.
Constitutional change, too, would help to
jump-start the economy, she contends. She has
promised as part of the proposed charter-reform
drive to rewrite some of the nationalistic
provisions enshrined in the 1987 constitution that
inhibit foreign investment in certain sectors of
the economy. A controversial government-sponsored
committee on charter change last year, perhaps
predictably, confirmed her rosy economic
arguments.
Significantly, some segments of
the international investment community seem eager
to cha-cha. In a recent research report,
investment bank Credit Suisse predicted that the
Philippines could gain a one-notch sovereign
credit-rating upgrade from one or two global
rating agencies if the reforms were soon
implemented. The bank also predicted that charter
change was inevitable, either through
congressional action or through a popular
initiative.
But Congress is reluctant to
cha-cha, and Arroyo has recently thrown her
support behind the idea of some sort of popular
initiative to pass the reforms. A petition drive
is currently under way, and the movement's
proponents claim that they will gather well over
the 6 million signatures - equivalent to 12% of
eligible voters - needed to hold a national
referendum on the issue.
Popular momentum,
it appears, is on Arroyo's side. Pulse Asia Inc, a
Manila-based independent polling agency, revealed
that 43% of Filipinos surveyed between February
and March supported the cha-cha reforms. Those
poll results represent a notable jump from the
meager 29% who backed the reform package during
the last quarter of 2005. At the same time,
opposition to the Arroyo-backed reforms fell from
55% last year to 43% last month.
House
Speaker Jose de Venecia, one of Arroyo's closest
political allies, recently predicted that "the
Philippines will have a unicameral parliament by
July".
The devil is in the
details The introduction of a parliamentary
system would require the establishment of an
interim government, which would remain in power
until new general elections were held in 2010.
Opponents believe that such a move would
allow Arroyo - whose political legitimacy has been
badly tarnished by vote-rigging allegations - to
increase her political powers and lay the
groundwork for an extension of her leadership. The
move toward an interim government would also mean
that all senators and congressmen - whose terms
expire in 2007 - would automatically win an
additional three years in office without having to
face the polls.
Antonio Abaya, president
of the Foundation for Transparency and Public
Accountability Today and Tomorrow (TAPATT), a
Manila-based non-partisan civil organization that
closely monitors the government, is a strong
proponent of the creation of such an
extra-constitutional provisional government.
"I would normally be in favor of a
parliamentary system, but this is the wrong time
for a charter change," said Abaya, who helped to
monitor the 2004 vote and whose views jibe with a
wide cross-section of Manila's middle class. "This
government is too corrupt to regenerate itself,"
he said, recalling that Arroyo won the 2004 polls
in controversial fashion.
He has some
compelling numbers to back up that assessment. A
March 8-14 survey conducted by the Social Weather
Stations, another independent polling agency,
indicated that 48% of Filipinos believe Arroyo
should be removed by a new "people power"
movement, while 42% of respondents preferred her
unconditional resignation. Remarkably, more than
36% of those polled agreed that Arroyo should be
removed through a military coup.
Like many
of Arroyo's opponents, Abaya is calling for the
establishment of a so-called "revolutionary
transitory government" - though established
through peaceful means, he says. The transitional
government, Abaya says, would have a fixed
three-year term and aim to include members from
every stratum of society, including the business
community, labor unions, communists, Muslim
organizations, civil-society groups, the church,
police and military.
Key reform measures
would include changes to the electoral system,
including laws aimed at reducing the prohibitive
cost of running for office and rules aimed at
discouraging party-swapping, which in the past has
led to unstable coalition politics. To weed out
unqualified show-business celebrities from
entering the political arena, a compulsory
qualifying exam would be required.
During
that interim period, the constitution would be
held in abeyance, and the country conceivably led
by an unelected government. Abaya acknowledges the
apparent contradiction: "Only with these changes
could we one day have a better election and a more
democratic system. Democracy does not always work
in a straight line. In the Philippines, democracy
now needs to take a short detour."
Long or
short, Philippine politics faces a bumpy ride.
Fabio Scarpello is an ADNKronos
international Southeast Asia correspondent and a
member of the UK Union of Journalists.
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