Myanmar's long march to civilian
rule By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's military rulers have
begun a significant internal shakeup of the army
and government in preparation for a planned
political transition to civilian rule, according
to Yangon-based diplomats.
Eight deputy
ministers and a Supreme Court judge were recently
relieved of their posts and several other cabinet
changes are believed to be in the pipeline.
It is the start of a fresh attempt to turn
Myanmar's ruling State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) into a civilian body in preparation
for the political change that will be ushered in
under a new constitution, which is expected to be
promulgated in the next two years.
Toward
that end, SPDC chairman General Than Shwe is
also
planning significant policy
changes, including a new program of economic
liberalization and government assistance to
strengthen the country's private sector.
The planned changes notably also coincide
with the regime's new crackdown on corruption.
Several top customs officials, including the
department's director general, have recently been
detained and are soon expected to be charged with
corruption. The investigations have broadened to
include several other economic ministries and
perhaps even the central bank, according to
diplomatic sources in Yangon.
The
personnel changes represent the second major
revamp in recent months. A cabinet shuffle in May
saw two deputy information ministers, Thein Sein
and Brigadier-General Aung Thein, lose their jobs
for undisclosed reasons. Deputy defense minister
Major-General Khin Maung Win; deputy mines
minister Myint Thein; deputy culture minister
Brigadier-General Soe Win Maung; the deputy
minister of border areas and national races and
development affairs, Brigadier-General Than Tun;
deputy minister of industry Thein Tun; and deputy
transport minister Pe Thein were all also nudged
into retirement.
Their replacements are
yet to be announced, but sources in Yangon say
they are likely to be drawn from a younger
generation of graduates from the National Defense
College. This may be Than Shwe's way of keeping
General Maung Aye, the SPDC's second-ranking
officer, in the system while reducing his
influence, according to a senior Asian diplomat
familiar with the situation.
Maung Aye is
seen as Than Shwe's only potential challenger
inside the junta after the October 2004 internal
purge that ousted from the SPDC General Khin
Nyunt, former prime minister and powerful
intelligence chief. Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt had
for years jockeyed for power and influence inside
the SPDC. Now Than Shwe's reorganization of the
government is designed to clip Maung Aye's wings,
according to Yangon-based diplomats.
For
instance, many of the regional military commanders
known to be loyal to Maung Aye were moved after
the SPDC's last quarterly meeting, which was held
in the new capital Pyinmana, where the junta
abruptly moved the government late last year.
"He is replicating his usual approach of
pitting potential junior rivals against each other
to create a balance of power," said independent
Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in the
northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.
Junta-led democracy Now that the
war office and the government administration are
up and running in the new capital, Than Shwe is
again turning his attention to the country's
political future. The national-reconciliation
process, as the military regime calls its plans
for political reform, has been substantially
delayed, partly because of the junta's move to the
new capital, partly because of the uncertainty due
to the surprise purge of Khin Nyunt's military
intelligence apparatus in October 2004.
Hundreds of his supporters were sentenced
to long jail terms for a wide array of charges,
including alleged corruption and other economic
crimes. Since then Than Shwe has been primarily
concerned with consolidating his own power within
the army and the country's administration.
Meanwhile, the National Convention, which
is in the process of drafting a new constitution,
is scheduled to resume its deliberations this
year. Foreign Minister Nyan Win told his
counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations in April that the constitution would not
be completed for at least another two years.
Once completed, the new charter will be
put to a referendum and general elections will be
held some time after that, according to the SPDC's
so-called "roadmap to democracy". The main
opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) won
a landslide victory the last time general
elections were held in Myanmar, and the opposition
has since maintained that the 1990 poll results
should be upheld.
But indications are that
the SPDC plans on managing its political
transition without the NLD's participation. The
junta has recently intensified its campaign of
harassment against the NLD, moving to immobilize
or eliminate the pro-democracy party as well as
organized ethnic rebel groups, most of which have
signed ceasefire pacts with the military
government.
At the same time, Myanmar's
top general is reportedly considering giving up at
least one, and possibly two, of the three key
posts he currently holds - chairman of the SPDC,
army supreme commander and defense minister.
"We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his
position as defense minister as part of the
forthcoming reshuffle," said an Asian diplomat
based in Yangon.
Meanwhile, the SPDC is
expected to be renamed the State Democracy and
Development Council within the next few months,
indicating the next step from military to civilian
rule. Since the army seized power, the military
rulers have once before changed the junta's formal
name from the State Law and Order Restoration
Council (SLORC) to the SPDC in 1997. Nine years
later it would not be a surprise if it changed the
name again, partly because nine is regarded as an
auspicious number in Burman astrology.
The
idea would be that the ruling council would remain
the highest political authority overseeing both a
military council and a civilian cabinet. The
military command would be replaced by a military
council - led by third-ranking SPDC officer
General Thura Swe Mann, but with Than Shwe also
serving on the body.
"The idea has
probably been adopted from the Chinese, and Than
Shwe plans to follow [late Chinese leader] Deng
Xiaoping's example after he resigns his official
government and party posts," Win Min said.
The cabinet, meanwhile, is already being
fully transformed to civilian status: ministers
have recently lost their military rank upon
appointment to government posts. Even Prime
Minister Soe Win recently relinquished his
official military post and stripes.
Chinese officials believe Than Shwe will
stand down this year so that he can become the
civilian president under a new constitution.
"He wants to be president for life," a
senior military source close to him said.
Although the new generation of generals
may take responsibility for the day-to-day running
of the country and execute the seven-stage roadmap
to democracy, Than Shwe is still expected to
remain the power behind the throne.
