US, Philippines weigh new military
marriage By Fabio Scarpello
COTABATO CITY, Southern Philippines - More
than 15 years after the US was forced to close its
military bases in the Philippines by nationalist
politicians, there are growing indications that
Washington is angling to re-establish a permanent
military presence here - though US diplomats
strenuously deny the speculation.
The
United States' behind-the-scenes role in mediating
a peace deal between the Philippine government and
a group of Islamic
rebels
and its assistance to the Philippine armed forces
in chasing down another rebellious Islamic
organization has, for many Filipinos, lent
credence to growing speculation that the US has
designs on establishing new bases on the country's
southern island of Mindanao.
The United
States Institute of Peace (USIP), an independent,
non-partisan institution established and funded by
the US Congress, is involved in the negotiations
between the Philippine government and the Moro
Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has been
fighting for independence for more than 30 years.
The USIP, however, is conspicuously not a party to
the broad, Malaysia-led peace talks, which were
launched after the two sides signed a tentative
truce in July 2003.
The MILF, the largest
rebel group in the Philippines, has hinted on
several occasions that it has been approached by
undisclosed US authorities about the possibility
of establishing US military bases in
MILF-controlled territory as part of a final peace
deal. "This is negotiable, it is possible,"said
Eid Kabalu, the MILF's spokesperson.
"We
are facing reality. We know that Washington has
its own agenda in Mindanao, and that this has
mostly to do with terrorism," said Kabalu from his
modest residence in central Mindanao's Cotabato
City. "However, if the American interest is really
in pushing this peace process, then we can talk
about military bases."
For nearly a
century, the US military had use of two major
bases in the Philippines, one at Clark Air Force
Base and the other at Subic Naval Station,
representing for a time the United States' largest
military installations in Asia. After the 1986
fall of Philippine dictator and erstwhile US ally
Ferdinand Marcos, nationalistic lawmakers in 1991
voted to end the United States' long military
presence in the country.
The subsequent US
military withdrawal was widely expected to create
a regional power vacuum, bringing the Philippines
into territorial disputes with Japan, China,
Taiwan and Malaysia, particularly over competing
claims to the reputedly oil-rich Spratly Islands.
Meanwhile, in the late 1990s, the US made
overtures to establish permanent military bases in
Thailand - which were spurned out of hand.
From the United States' perspective, the
concomitant rise of regional Islamic terrorism and
China's growing military ambitions have
fundamentally changed the region's security
calculus and accentuated the strategic need for
new installations in the region. And from a
regional perspective, the Philippines is arguably
the best fit. The Islamic-rebel-racked southern
Philippines has recently emerged as a key theater
in the United States' counter-terrorism campaign
in Southeast Asia.
The US has in recent
years poured hundreds of millions of dollars of
military-related assistance into the Philippines,
including funds earmarked for military training.
The US has also provided technical assistance for
the Philippine military's campaign in the southern
province of Sulu against the Abu Sayyaf, an
Islamic rebel organization that Washington
contends has links to al-Qaeda.
Strategic motivations Security
analysts in Manila agree that Washington has a
strong strategic interest in re-establishing
permanent military bases in the Philippines.
According to prominent political analyst Antonio
Abaya, the short- and mid-term military objective
would be to undermine activities of Jemaah
Islamiya, the Indonesia-based regional terrorist
group that is believed to have training camps in
the Philippines' Sulu Archipelago and West
Mindanao.
Retired General Fortunato Abat,
a former Philippines defense chief and senior
envoy to Beijing, contends that establishing a US
military base in Mindanao would make strategic
sense for Washington on several fronts, including
possible future naval interventions in the South
China Sea, defending Taiwan from a preemptive
Chinese attack and providing a launch pad for
anti-terrorist operations in Indonesia,
Afghanistan and Iraq.
"Furthermore, it
would complete the US security arc providing
additional strength to what the US has in place in
Japan, Korea and Hawaii to forestall any Chinese
adventurism in Southeast Asia," Abat said.
Writer and historian Renato Redentor
Constantino concurs with such assessments, noting
that Mindanao is now in the midst of a US-financed
infrastructure spending spree that he contends
goes well beyond what the region's development
would need. "Yes, the US is interested, and no, it
is not only because of the war on terror,"
Constantino said.
Philippine-based US
diplomats strongly dismiss such speculation.
"There are no talks along those lines. The US is
an ally of the Philippines and, at the moment,
military bases are not allowed here," Stacy
MacTaggert, deputy press attache at the US Embassy
in Manila, said in a telephone interview.
Eugene Martin, executive director of the
Philippines chapter of the USIP, sounds similar
denials. "As the Institute of Peace is not a US
government agency, I do not know what and if any
discussions on this matter are or have been held.
But the institute is not in any way engaged in
such talks as we focus on trying to help the two
sides reach a viable peace agreement," he said in
an e-mail response to Asia Times Online queries.
"Personally, I would be surprised if there
were such discussion, since the US military is
working closely with its Filipino counterparts on
counter-terrorism training," Martin said.
"Furthermore, as long as the prospective
Bangsamoro homeland is within Philippine
territorial boundaries and sovereignty, I believe
the national constitutional provisions barring
foreign military bases would prevail. Legal
scholars and nationalists in Manila would find it
difficult to accept such bases."
Sources
close to the Philippine-based US intelligence
community claim that talks about establishing
bases are under way, are spearheaded by a parallel
unofficial diplomacy on the ground. "It is an
ongoing discussion. The two parties are close, and
Manila has agreed. One big problem is to find a
formula that can be sold to the strong local
opposition," a source said.
Peaceful
latecomer Washington's strategic interest
in the region followed al-Qaeda's September 11,
2001, attack on the US, when evidence emerged that
some of the plot's leaders had held meetings in
the Philippines. The US later became militarily
active in the region after reports emerged that
various Islamic terrorist organizations had taken
sanctuary in Mindanao's thick forests, including
some groups that had allegedly relocated their
camps from Afghanistan after the US invasion of
that country in 2001.
Intelligence sources
in the Philippines say the Moro rebels welcomed
many of the mujahideen fighters, who brought with
them weapons and expertise. Then, their relocation
was made easy by Manila's incompetence in
identifying and combating the new threat, because
of weak anti-terror legislation, a tattered
intelligence network and a lack of resources and
manpower.
The United States' involvement
in the region was partly triggered by a direct
plea for help made by the late MILF chairman
Salamat Hashim, who wrote to US President George W
Bush in January 2003. Washington's commitment was
partially based on the MILF's pledge to renounce
terrorism, which was made public by Hashim in a
policy statement released on June 20, 2003. This
was followed that same month by a similar request
for assistance by Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo, who had by then emerged as
Asia's most vocal supporter of the US-led
anti-terrorism campaign.
Since then, the
US has substantially increased its assistance to
the Armed Forces of the Philippines. In the past
few years, Washington has poured roughly US$300
million into the AFP's coffers and sent hundreds
of American soldiers to conduct prolonged training
exercises with their Filipino counterparts. This
May, the Philippines and the US signed a new
agreement establishing a formal board that will
determine and discuss the possibility of holding
joint US-Philippine military exercises against
terrorism and other non-traditional security
concerns.
The US military presence in and
around Mindanao arguably has a more permanent
feature in the shape of the Joint Special
Operations Task Force Philippines, which advises
Filipinos on how best to fight terrorism. The
JOSTFP, which rotates personnel every six months,
is composed of marine, air-force, navy, army, and
special-forces personnel, all under the US Pacific
Command.
The JOSTFP's main target is the
Abu Sayyaf Group, a small but violent rebel
organization operating mainly in the Sulu
Archipelago that has historically been involved in
kidnappings for ransom. The US has since September
11, 2001, included Abu Sayyaf on its list of
global terrorist organizations.
The MILF
and Manila have optimistically stated their joint
intention to sign a final peace agreement by the
end of this year. Provisional indications of the
deal include a power-sharing governmental system,
which would place part of Mindanao under the
Moro's direct day-to-day control while at the same
time maintaining Philippine national and
geographical integrity. The establishment of US
military installations would conceptually serve a
de facto peacekeeping role between the two sides,
while also providing Manila and Washington a
valuable beachhead to combat Islamic terror groups
in the region.
The MILF's Kabalu said his
group would like official US participation in the
peace-talks process, which since 2003 has been led
inconclusively by Malaysia. "We would like
Washington to make its position official, like
Malaysia, Brunei and Libya, who take part in the
consultations on behalf of their governments.
"At the moment the US is playing a clever
role; they are involved, but only via the United
States Institute of Peace," he said, adding: "We
have nothing against the Americans. As a matter of
fact, in our 30-year-long struggle, we have never
hurt one American. If they help, then they are
welcome."
Fabio Scarpello is
AdnKronos International Southeast Asia bureau
chief. He can be contacted at
fabio25770@hotmail.com.
(Copyright 2006
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
.)
