BANGKOK - As Thailand's military settles
into its provisional authority role and awaits to
see which prominent figure assumes the interim
leadership role, for all intents and purposes His
Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej has, through his
army proxies, taken absolute control of the
kingdom.
The military coup led by army
commander General Sonthi Boonyaratklin that ousted
caretaker prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on
Tuesday night has put Thailand back on a familiar
political course: under a
royally endorsed interim government.
Images broadcast on national television of
Sonthi meeting with King Bhumibol at his palace
indicated overtly to the general population that
the military's extra-constitutional move had the
monarch's tacit approval.
The coup of a
democratically elected caretaker government,
suspension of the country's progressive 1997
constitution, seizure of the national broadcasting
frequencies and detention of politicians
associated with the ruling political party would
on the surface appear to be a giant step backward
for Thailand's democratic development.
That's at least the opinion pouring in
from global quarters. United Nations Secretary
General Kofi Annan mildly condemned the coup,
saying, "This is not a practice to be encouraged."
International rights groups also condemned
the military-led clampdown. "Thaksin's rule had
seriously eroded respect for human rights in
Thailand, but suspending basic rights under the
constitution is not the answer," Brad Adams, Asia
director of Human Rights Watch, said in a
statement.
Thaksin, who had been in New
York for a UN General Assembly meeting, will no
doubt play on such international opinions to make
his case to return to the country and contest
democratic elections scheduled for November. But
this coup, with clear backing from the royal
palace, unlike previous military interventions in
Thai politics, has significantly been warmly
received by Bangkok's elite and middle classes,
including well-known democratic-reform advocates.
Although Thaksin is immensely popular in
the country's rural countryside - where about 80%
of the country's voters reside - real power in
Thailand is still highly concentrated in Bangkok,
and Bhumibol's authoritative endorsement of the
caretaker premier's removal signals clearly that
the coup is final.
The military's newly
formed Administrative Reform Council (ARC)
justified its seizure of power on the grounds that
the Thaksin administration's actions had
frequently bordered on "lese majeste" and
had created "social division like never before".
The council also indicated that Thaksin had
"politically meddled" with state units and
independent organizations and "faced growing
doubts ... of widespread reports of corruption".
Those complaints resonate strongly across
Bangkok's elite and middle classes, which at first
supported but five years later now widely view
Thaksin's divide-and-rule style of governance as a
bigger threat to Thailand's democratic future than
temporary military rule. Conservative elements
close to the palace had tacitly supported the
massive anti-government street protests that
kicked up late last year, gathered pace early this
year, and eventually pressured Thaksin to declare
snap polls in late February.
The
mainstream media have widely misinterpreted the
potent but peaceful protests as being galvanized
by the Thaksin family's controversial US$1.9
billion tax-free sale of its 49% holdings in the
Shin Corporation to Singapore's Temasek Holdings.
To the contrary, the protests, which were later
co-opted by various special-interest groups
aligned against the government, were first
galvanized and primarily sustained by the
explosive claims first made by firebrand media
mogul Sondhi Limthongkul that Thaksin was on
particular occasions disloyal to the throne.
Democratic-minded Thais have since loyally
donned royal-yellow shirts to demonstrate their
support for the King, months after the elaborate
June celebrations that marked the 60-year
anniversary of his accession to the throne.
Thaksin, who had stepped down as prime minister in
April hours after a closed-door meeting with
Bhumibol, surprised many when he resumed his
caretaker role the following month to plan and
preside over the high-profile royal celebrations.
The ARC's statement on Tuesday accusing
Thaksin of lese majeste has brought the
long-brewing tensions between the prime minister
and monarch into the open. A groundbreaking
academic paper that has recently made the rounds
among Thailand's intelligentsia, written by
Thailand expert Duncan McCargo, argues that
Bhumibol had over the years maintained his
authority over elected politicians through
so-called "monarchic networks" of loyal royalists
strategically positioned inside the bureaucracy,
including the highest echelons of the military.
Monarchic networks Although the
paper remains controversial, what is apparent is
that Thaksin did move to sideline a number of top
government officials, which in effect diluted the
palace's influence inside the bureaucracy and, as
one palace source believes, aimed to consolidate
his power in anticipation of the post-Bhumibol
era.
For example, when Thaksin ordered in
2001 the sidelining of Kasem Watanachai and
Palakorn Suwannarat, two well-known royalist
bureaucratic officials, the King within hours
appointed both of them to his Privy Council.
In 2002, two reporters for the Far Eastern
Economic Review, including this correspondent,
were threatened by Thaksin's government with
lese majeste charges and deportation for a
report signaling tensions between his government
and the palace. More significant, the premier
regularly wrangled with the Privy Council over
annual military reshuffles in which Thaksin bid to
promote his loyalists to pivotal positions in the
top brass.
In 2003, he controversially
promoted his relatively unknown cousin, General
Chaisit Shinawatra, to the post of army commander
- the country's most powerful military position -
while elevating many other of his allies.
Tuesday's coup significantly came against
the backdrop of another hotly contested scheduled
military reshuffle in which Thaksin had
controversially vied to elevate a clutch of his
pre-Cadet Class 10 loyalists to the pivotal 1st
Army Division. That reshuffle list reportedly
brought Thaksin into conflict with senior members
of the top brass and the Privy Council, and his
refusal to back down from the proposed personnel
changes appears to have been a major factor behind
the coup.
According to sources familiar
with the matter, Thaksin had attempted to elevate
Major-General Prin Suwanthat to commander of the
1st Army Division, which crucially is charged with
overseeing security in Bangkok. Thaksin also
reportedly pushed to promote Prin's ally,
Major-General Daopong Ratanasuwan, to take over
the 1st Infantry. With assistant army commander
Pornchai Kranlert in place, the reshuffle, if
accomplished, would have given Thaksin an unbroken
chain of command over crack troops responsible for
Bangkok's security.
Notably, without his
allies in the top posts, Thaksin's order from New
York to impose a "severe state of emergency" and
remove Sonthi from his position as army commander
went unheeded.
Meanwhile, the military has
promised to return power to the people as soon as
possible, and judging by past royally orchestrated
extra-constitutional interventions, it will honor
that vow.
Thaksin's ouster will pave the
way for important democratic reforms, which under
the military's and monarchy's watch will broadly
aim to dilute the power of the executive branch,
limit the power of large political parties, and
strengthen the independent checking and balancing
institutions that Thaksin stands accused of
undermining.
With
the likely legal dissolution of Thaksin's powerful
Thai Rak Thai political party, the nation now
seems set to return to the wobbly coalition
politics composed of several competitive
middle-sized parties that characterized Thai
democratic politics throughout the 1990s after the
last coup in 1991 and the restoration of civilian
rule after the bloody street protests of
1992.
More significant, perhaps, Thaksin's
departure from the political scene will allow the
Privy Council and the palace to plan without
worries for a dynastic transition that maintains
the centrality of the monarchy in Thai society.
Thai democratic history shows that the country
often takes one step backward to take two steps
ahead, and Tuesday's royally backed coup is
consistent with that tradition.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times
Online's Southeast Asia editor.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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