ASIA HAND The search for a suitable man
By Shawn W Crispin
BANGKOK - Growing indications that Thailand's new military rulers plan to
appoint one of their own - General Surayud Chulanont - to head a civilian-led
administration will inevitably spook foreign markets and further entrench
international skepticism about the junta's long-term political aims.
A more nuanced and informed view, however, will recognize that the
squeaky-clean Surayud is most likely the best man for the job. The Council for
Democratic Reform (CDR) on Tuesday put the
final touches on an interim constitution, which will be submitted for royal
approval over the weekend and pave the way for next week's appointment of a
civilian prime minister.
The junta has stumbled in trying to reach a consensus candidate, underscoring
the controlled chaos behind its week-old administration. Hours after the
September 19 putsch that ousted caretaker premier Thaksin Shinawatra, top coup
leader General Sonthi Boonyaratklin was torn between two relatively unknown
palace loyalists, Sumet Tantivejkul, secretary general of the royally sponsored
Chai Pattana Foundation, and Privy Councilor Palakorn Suwannarat to lead the
provisional military authority.
When global criticism mounted against the coup, the CDR apparently changed tack
and sought to locate a more internationally respected figure. Central bank
governor Pridiyathorn Devakula, a palace loyalist respected for his upright
economic management, emerged as the first front-runner. But his appointment on
Tuesday to head the junta's Economic Advisory Council signals that he will
likely remain at the Bank of Thailand to maintain investor confidence in the
military-run regime.
Later news put Supachai Panichpakdi, former World Trade Organization director
general and current United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
secretary general, in a neck-in-neck race with Surayud, a less-known figure in
international circles. Yet selecting Supachai, a former senior member of the
opposition Democrat Party, threatens to reinforce growing perceptions that the
CDR plans to return the country to democracy only on its own terms.
The aristocratic Democrats are well known for their technocratic competence,
not to mention their close links to the palace, but notably have not won a
democratic election since 1993. (The Democrat/Chuan Leekpai II administration
were not elected in 1997, but was able to form a new coalition government after
the previous government unceremoniously stepped down.) Although Supachai might
be well received by the international community, his ability after many years
in Geneva, and slight estrangement from his political party, to forge a new
reform consensus across Thailand's badly fragmented political scene is very
much in doubt.
Military reformer
Considering the tough task at hand, Surayud is arguably the junta's best
option. Beginning in 1998, then-army commander Surayud led what many
Bangkok-based military attaches have characterized as the most far-reaching
military reform and modernization program in Thailand's modern history. That
reform drive included a drastic troop reduction from 230,000 to the current
level of about 190,000, and simultaneously developed new rapid-deployment
forces that were professional enough to lead a UN peacekeeping mission in East
Timor and later to assist US troops in Iraq.
Surayud also has an established reputation in reform circles as a corruption
buster, a qualification that will be called on as the new government probes the
finances of Thaksin's government. Surayud moved inside the military to
streamline and regulate procurement procedures, including for big-ticket
hardware purchases, long the source of army corruption.
Meanwhile, back-to-the-barracks orders forced many renegade army officers to
choose between their public service to the armed forces and their privately
held businesses, which often entailed illegal activities in Thailand's huge
underground economy.
Most significant, Surayud's reform drive restored public confidence in the
military after the tragic events of May 1992, when soldiers opened fire on and
killed pro-democracy demonstrators on the streets of Bangkok. Under his
leadership, the military quietly resumed its role as the final guardian of Thai
democracy - one big factor in the widespread public acceptance of last week's
bloodless coup.
Now perhaps a badge of honor, Surayud openly clashed with Thaksin's
business-first style of governance, and his subsequent move sideways in the
army's hierarchy represented the beginning of Thaksin's vigorous efforts to
sideline professional soldiers and elevate his military allies into positions
of high command.
Surayud captured the national imagination when, on his retirement from the
armed forces in 2003, he was ordained as a Buddhist monk and lived for many
months in a forest monastery. He subsequently was tapped to become a member of
His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej's Privy Council, and has since emerged as
the royal advisory body's de facto spokesman.
Obviously the irony of Surayud becoming interim prime minister after years of
campaigning to push the military out of politics will be lost on nobody. Nor
does his strong military record ensure that he will be an effective government
leader. And even with his strong reform credentials and apparent good
intentions, until democracy is fully restored he will face criticism from the
country's vocal progressive movement, which will inevitably view him as the
military's puppet rather than an agent for positive change.
If appointed, Surayud's first big test will be to allay those civil-society
concerns by rolling back the various anti-democratic decrees the junta has
already imposed on political assembly and the media, which have badly eroded
foreign confidence in the junta's political instincts and intentions. He will
also need to establish clearly a new chain of command - that his civilian
administration is in charge and not the coupmakers who appointed him.
Still, Surayud's good image and calm demeanor would give Thailand's highly
anticipated new military-appointed government much-needed credibility. And
while the military may at first have a hard time convincing foreign embassies
and investors that a former soldier in a business suit is the same as a
civilian-led democratic-minded government, for now, under the current political
circumstances, Surayud is the best choice the country has.
Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia editor.
