Myanmar's move to military
democracy By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's top brass are in the
process of overhauling their junta-led government,
where military leader General Than Shwe and
second-in-command General Maung Aye are preparing
to stand down from their traditional military
commands and hand over authority to a new
generation of senior soldiers. There's a catch, of
course: neither military leader plans on
relinquishing his grip on political power.
The planned changes represent the latest
phase of Myanmar's excruciatingly slow move toward
political reform and the promised
introduction of a
civilian-led government. The National Convention,
which significantly does not include
representation from the main opposition National
League for Democracy, is set to resume drafting a
new constitution next week and wrap up proceedings
by next year. If all goes to plan, the draft
charter will be put to a national referendum and
some sort of democratic elections will be held
within the next 12 months.
The scheduled
changes would represent the most dramatic change
of Myanmar's governing system since the current
batch of soldiers seized power from another
military-led regime 18 years ago. Both Than Shwe
and Maung Aye will retain their top posts within
the ruling State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC), which is expected to change its name to
the State Democracy and Development Council (SDDC)
to mark the start of a new political era. Than
Shwe is also expected to relinquish his current
position of defense minister.
General
Thura Shwe Man, Than Shwe's protege, is in line to
take command of the armed forces, while
southeastern regional commander Thura Myint Aung
is expected to take Maung Aye's post as the
military's deputy leader. Thura Myint Aung is
relatively unknown in diplomatic circles, but is
regarded as one of Myanmar's few neutral top
generals - that is, he owes political allegiance
to neither Than Shwe nor Maung Aye, according to a
source in Yangon close to the country's military
leaders.
The yet-to-be-established SDDC,
meanwhile, will become the country's overarching
new supreme ruling council, which will oversee
both the military command and the civilian
government. Than Shwe and Maung Aye will head the
new body, which is also expected to include new
military leader Thura Shwe Man and other regional
commanders. Prime Minister Soe Win, who has
already traded in his military garb for a civilian
business suit, will head the cabinet and
government.
"Senior General Than Shwe and
Deputy Senior General Maung Aye are in the process
of handing over control of the armed forces to the
next generation of generals," said a senior
Myanmar military source who spoke on condition of
anonymity with Asia Times Online. He said Than
Shwe informed junta members of the plans at their
recent quarterly meeting in the new capital
Pyinmana - which is about 400 kilometers north of
the former capital Yangon.
The anticipated
moves have Myanmar watchers chattering. "This has
been Than Shwe's game plan for some time. It is
only a matter of when," said Win Min, a Chiang
Mai, Thailand-based independent Myanmar analyst.
According to Chinese diplomats that follow Myanmar
affairs, Than Shwe intends to stand down to become
the civilian president under the new constitution.
"He wants to be president for life," a
senior military source close to Than Shwe said.
Over the past 12 months, Than Shwe has
frequently told Thailand's top army commanders
that he would soon retire and that Thura Shwe Man
would take over as the country's military leader.
The abrupt move of the SPDC's government offices
and the armed forces' central command to Pyinmana,
which commenced last November and was finally
completed in February, has delayed those planned
changes.
Now with the new capital up and
running, Than Shwe is waiting for the most
auspicious time to implement the planned changes.
"Although the decision to pass the control of the
army to Thura Shwe Man has been made, it is
unlikely to happen before the National Convention
has finished drafting the new constitution," a
Western diplomat based in Yangon told Asia Times
Online.
Declining health Than
Shwe's declining health may also determine the
timing of the handover. Last year the
then-75-year-old SPDC senior leader, who is known
to suffer from hypertension and is a diabetic, had
a mild stroke but quickly recovered. In the past
few months there have been new reports that his
health is deteriorating again, according to a
Myanmar army doctor who spoke with Asia Times
Online.
According to one foreign visitor
who recently met with Than Shwe, the senior
general is often short of breath. In a video of
his daughter's recent wedding viewed by Asia Times
Online, he clearly had trouble walking. According
to government insiders, Than Shwe has seldom
ventured outside his residence since his military
government was moved from Yangon to Pyinmana in
February.
Since then he has only once
traveled to Yangon, and that for his daughter's
wedding ceremony. For the past two months, he has
not ventured to the War Office and only attends
crucial meetings such as the fortnightly joint
SPDC-cabinet session, according to an Asian
diplomat who was until recently based in Yangon.
He reportedly sends orders to Maung Aye and Prime
Minister Soe Win through his heir apparent Thura
Shwe Man, who has emerged as his closest
confidant.
Some political analysts believe
Than Shwe is trying to conceal his poor health to
prevent a full-blown power struggle breaking out
among his subordinates. Still, government insiders
say he is acutely aware of the dangers involved
with the political transition, and he has employed
his trademark divide-and-rule tactics to maintain
his authority, particularly between
soon-to-be-army-chief General Thura Shwe Man and
Soe Win.
"Even if Than Shwe officially
retires he will not give up his power. Instead,
he'll remain the gray eminence behind the throne,
along the lines of the Chinese leader Deng
Xiaoping in the years before his death," said Win
Min, the Chiang Mai-based analyst.
Efforts
to civilianize the junta-led government are
already under way. For instance, cabinet members
have been made to leave the armed forces, and
military control throughout the country is being
transferred from the armed forces to the Interior
and Planning ministries.
Under the new
government, local military commanders will be
required to report to the Home Ministry, a move
that has already been implemented at the township
level and is now being enforced at the district
level as well, according to a senior international
aid worker based inside the country familiar with
the situation.
"This is all part of Than
Shwe's plans to streamline government
administration and strengthen the authorities'
control over the general population in preparation
for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to
win the elections held under the new
constitution," said Win Min.
With the
plan's implementation under way, analysts predict
that the military's control under civilian rule
will likely be strengthened rather than weakened
across the country. And the next generation of
generals who are settling into leadership
positions will be loath to relinquish their
newfound powers to a new democratic order. If all
goes to Than Shwe's master plan, the chances for
real democracy still remain distant.
Larry Jagan previously covered
Myanmar politics for the BBC. He is currently a
freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
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