Page 2 of 2 The generals fall out in
Myanmar By Larry Jagan
divides open
inside the SPDC. The changes have been in the
planning pipeline for at least a year, according
to senior Myanmar military sources. But the recent
massive move of all the government's offices and
the armed forces' central command to Naypyidaw -
started more than a year ago and completed last
February - have delayed the full transition from
SPDC to SDDC rule.
Than Shwe suffered a
mild stroke nearly two years ago, but
since
has
fully recovered. He also suffers from hypertension
and is a diabetic, which causes him frequent
violent seizures when his sugar levels get out of
control, according to an army doctor familiar with
the situation. According to one foreign visitor
who met with him recently, Than Shwe is often
short of breath.
Than Shwe has become far
more reclusive since the government finished its
move from Yangon to Naypyidaw last February. For
almost the past year, Than Shwe has not gone to
the War Office and has only attended crucial
meetings, such as the fortnightly joint SPDC
cabinet session, according to an Asian diplomat
who until recently was based in Yangon. The senior
general also nowadays receives few outside
visitors, other than Thura Shwe Mann, through whom
he sends directives to Maung Aye and Soe Win.
Last month, the 75-year-old senior general
traveled to Singapore for an urgent medical
checkup after suffering from chest pains. What was
to be a day or two in hospital attenuated to a
week-long stay and stoked wild speculation and
rumors about his health. Singaporean doctors
discovered that Than Shwe is suffering from cancer
of the pancreas, according to reliable medical
sources in Yangon. "Than Shwe may only have three
to 18 months left to live," predicted one Myanmar
army doctor.
Many inside Myanmar thought
the senior general was already on his last legs
when he left for Singapore, and several ranking
majors and colonels began jockeying for position
in expectation that Maung Aye, rather than Thura
Shwe Mann, would soon take the military's top
spot.
Since his return to Myanmar, Than
Shwe has moved to allay speculation about his
health, and he took the unprecedented step of
allowing local television cameras to film the
opening of the SPDC's quarterly meeting - the
first time ever that the traditionally highly
secretive meetings have been allowed pubic
exposure. His hale image has also been splashed
almost daily across the front page of the
government-mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar
newspaper.
"This is to ensure that as few
people as possible are aware of his failing
health," said Chiang Mai-based independent Myanmar
analyst Win Min. "Even if Than Shwe officially
retires, he will not give up his power. Instead,
he'll remain the gray eminence behind the throne,
along the lines of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in
the years before his death."
According to
Chinese diplomats, Than Shwe intends to stand down
but become the civilian president under the new
constitution. "He wants to be president for life,"
a senior military source close to him said.
However, Maung Aye's refusal to retire has
suddenly put a wrench in those works and raises
hard new questions about his commitment to Than
Shwe's reform plan. Thura Shwe Mann has already
been handed effective control over running the
country's day-to-day affairs, although he still
reportedly consults Than Shwe on major policy
issues. At the same time, government ministers
have recently started to complain about the
political inertia and their inability to make even
basic decisions.
From the outset, Than
Shwe was aware of the potential dangers involved
with backing a transition from pure military to
some form of democratic rule. And unless he is
somehow convinced that his personal power and his
family's fortunes are not at risk through its
implementation, the current political stalemate
could last at least as long as the senior
general's declining health holds out.
Larry Jagan previously covered
Myanmar politics for the BBC. He is currently a
freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
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