Page 2 of 2 Autonomy hopes for southern
Philippines By Noel Tarrazona
killings, some say she now feels
the need to show a more compromising face to the
international community.
At the same time,
tough military tactics have served her
government's most important bilateral relationship
- with the US - well. With US military assistance,
the Philippine military has made significant
headway in its campaign against another, smaller,
Muslim insurgent group - Abu Sayyaf. In recent
months, military sharpshooters have killed two of
terror group's two top
leaders, and there are
reports that the regional terror organizations,
including JI, that had based themselves in Abu
Sayyaf-controlled territory have recently been
flushed out of their hideouts.
The MILF
and its estimated 12,500 foot soldiers, however,
represent a more complicated military and
political challenge. Former president Joseph
Estrada declared a total war against the MILF and
captured its central headquarters at Camp
Abubakar. Still, regional security analysts doubt
whether the Philippine Army could ever impose a
military solution to the conflict, particularly
considering the strong support the insurgent group
has with the local population.
Peace in
MILF-controlled territories would give the entire
Philippine economy a much-needed boost. Mindanao
is simultaneously the country's poorest yet
resource-richest region. Decades of conflict have
deterred both local and foreign investors from
setting up operations to exploit the region's rich
deposits of minerals as well as fossil fuels.
With spiraling global commodity prices,
there is a strong economic incentive on both sides
of the battle line to reach an accord, converting
the region's battlefields into marketplaces. At
this early point, however, it's altogether unclear
how much autonomy Manila might be willing to grant
the MILF and local political leaders over future
natural-resource-derived revenues. Indeed, the
region already has in name a so-called autonomy
mechanism, which allows rebels to maintain their
arms and fails to grant real political control at
the grassroots.
This time, however, there
is a big international push behind the peace
drive. The US has pledged more than US$30 million
in infrastructure and so-called
livelihood-development assistance for
MILF-controlled regions should a final peace
accord be struck. Japan has made a complementing
development pledge should a peace deal be struck,
and on March 2 Tokyo and Manila signed a
provisional two-year $3 million deal for so-called
quick-impact projects aimed at stimulating
economic activity in conflict-hit areas.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency
said in a press statement announcing the financial
facility: "This is part of Japan's firm commitment
to engage more actively in the Mindanao peace
process and play a leading role in the social and
economic development of affected areas in the
region." Japan, obviously, would be an eager
future customer for Mindanao's nearby mineral and
fuel resources.
That said, there are
coincident signs that the truce is coming
completely undone. A clash last Sunday in Midsayap
in North Cotabato province resulted in the deaths
of 17 MILF fighters and the displacement of 4,000
local residents who fled the violence. MILF
spokesman Eid Kabalu claimed his forces did not
initiate the firefight and accused the military of
encroaching on established MILF-controlled areas.
Army spokesperson Lieutenant-Colonel Julieto Ando
countered those accusations, saying MILF rebels
ambushed his soldiers without provocation, killing
one and wounding two.
If autonomy is in
the cards, it's not yet apparent on the MILF's
ancestral grounds.
Noel
Tarrazona is a journalist based in Zamboanga
City who also works with non-governmental
organizations providing financial literacy
seminars to former rebels in the southern
Philippines.
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