Page 1 of
2 Karen between a rock and
a hard place By Clifford McCoy
MAE SOT, Thailand - Rife with internal
divisions, hobbled by the recent death of its
charismatic leader, and faced with a massive
government military offensive against its last
strategic stronghold, Myanmar's Karen National
Union (KNU) insurgent group is stuck between a
tactical rock and a strategic hard place. That's
raising hard questions about how much longer
Southeast Asia's oldest insurgent group can
continue its 58-year struggle for an
independent homeland.
Last December's death of General Saw Bo
Mya has highlighted internal divisions within the
5,000-strong KNU, witnessed in a January split
among a group of its top commanders over how best
to approach ceasefire negotiations with Myanmar's
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
The KNU also faces an increasingly powerful and
organized rival in the SPDC-aligned Democratic
Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), the loss of qualified
personnel who have recently been resettled abroad,
and a struggle to remain relevant to the civilian
Karen population, which now has different
political alternatives.
The only remaining
area where the KNU claims to control "liberated
areas" - eastern Pegu division and northern Karen
state - has been under attack by the Myanmar army
since February 2006. The area is viewed by the
SPDC as staunchly pro-KNU, a fair analysis
considering that the territory's local leaders
were strongly opposed to a 2004 ceasefire
agreement. Myanmar army operations launched by
more than 60 battalions have indiscriminately
targeted the civilian population, displacing more
than 20,000 Karen villagers and badly undermining
the KNU's infrastructure.
Forcing the KNU
out of these northern areas, widely considered the
Karen's heartland where the ethnic group's
traditions and culture run deep, would be a
significant military victory for the junta-led
government. The SPDC would also stand to benefit
hugely from exploiting the natural resources in
the area, which have garnered substantial
foreign-investor interest.
Two
controversial dam projects, Dagwin and Wei Gyi,
are already planned along stretches of the Salween
River that cut through Karen state. The state-run
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
(EGAT) is reportedly involved in financing both of
the projects.
Although the Myanmar army
does not yet have firm control over the project
areas, a memorandum of understanding dating back
to 1996 has been signed between the Thai
government and the SPDC respectively to buy and
sell electricity generated by the proposed dams.
Karen villagers on both sides of the Salween and
the KNU have never been consulted about the
projects.
Government control over the area
would also open the territory up to expanded
logging and mining operations. Several companies,
some with ties to Chinese and Thai businessmen,
are already engaged in gold-mining and logging
operations in areas adjacent to KNU-controlled
territory.
According to a recent report by
Earth Rights International, much of the gold and
timber in the current concession sites have
already been exploited, making the companies eager
to secure new concessions in new areas to keep
revenues flowing and their capital equipment
moving. Although the KNU conducts some logging and
mining operations in the region, poor
infrastructure keeps these on a small-scale and
the area remains virtually untapped.
The
northern areas had until now withstood the forced
"Burmanization" witnessed in other parts of Karen
state and central Myanmar. If the territories are
lost to the SPDC, it will significantly undermine
the KNU's negotiating leverage during any future
ceasefire talks. According to relief workers
active in the area, the KNU has failed to push the
Myanmar army back and is now merely holding on to
provide a measure of protection for Karen
civilians.
KNU reports of recent
skirmishes claim that the Myanmar army has
suffered significant casualties. This may or may
not be propaganda, but relief workers and
human-rights monitors corroborate some of the
KNU's casualty figures, saying many deaths have
come from government troops wandering into
landmine-laden areas.
The KNU's defensive
use of landmines is indicative of the insurgent
group's growing desperation and severe shortage of
ammunition. It has been plagued with shortages
since losing its main source of revenue when its
border tax gates fell to the Myanmar army in the
late 1980s and early 1990s.
International
human-rights groups say the Myanmar army has
recently tailored its offensives to attack
villagers' food supplies as well as their ability
to grow more food. Those tactics have included
shooting and killing villagers who attempt to tend
to crops. The military's war logic: starving
villagers will eventually leave the area, and
without civilian support and cover the KNU will be
easier to flush out.
Brothers at
arms The threat posed to the KNU by the
DKBA represents a more complicated challenge.
Formed as a breakaway group from the KNU in
December 1994, the DKBA was until recently a
highly decentralized yet organized group that
operated as an auxiliary force to the Myanmar
army.
It is most notorious for crossing
the Thai border and torching refugee camps where
ethnic Karen had fled fighting, but has also been
involved in well-documented rights abuses against
civilian populations that occupy the territories
it controls. As such, it initially had little
civilian support among ethnic Karen.
In
recent years, however, the DKBA has matured into a
much stronger military and political force. Its
shared control with the SPDC over central Karen
state is firm enough that relative peace has taken
hold in the former combat-riddled area in recent
years. Flare-ups occasionally occur, to be sure,
but for the most part, DKBA units appear to be
content with a live-and-let-live policy. The SPDC,
while maintaining an armed presence, has largely
allowed the DKBA a free hand in administering the
area.
Oddly, DKBA leaders often state that
they still see the KNU as their mother
organization - but that they are pursuing their
revolution, which is aimed at gaining greater
autonomy for the Karen people, in a different way.
Although there is no indication the KNU and DKBA
ever plan to join forces, some limited
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
