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2 Rogues of the world
unite By Clifford McCoy
interested in the North Korean
Hwasong SRBM, a Scud-type missile with a range of
up to 500 kilometers and a 770-kilogram
conventional warhead.
It is unlikely that
China would provide such advanced missile
technology to Myanmar, which would likely rile the
US and regional countries. North Korea, however,
is unconcerned about
piquing Washington and has
already sold an estimated 300-350 ballistic
missiles to foreign countries and readily makes
parts and missile technology available on
underground global markets.
The presence
of ballistic missiles in Myanmar would likely
elicit particularly strong reactions from Thailand
and India. A recent report by Jane's Defence
Weekly that Thailand recently launched a new
missile- and rocket-production program would
appear to be a defensive reaction to Myanmar's
move to acquire North Korean missile technology.
Nuclear ambitions? There has
also been diplomatic speculation that North Korea
is involved in the building of a nuclear test
reactor in central Myanmar. The reactor was
initially to be built with Russian assistance, but
Moscow reportedly pulled out because of Myanmar's
inability to pay for the construction. Moreover,
it remains unclear why aircraft from North Korea's
Air Koryu airline landed at military airfields in
central Myanmar in 2003, or what North Korean
technicians were doing at Myothit near Natmauk,
upper Myanmar, around the same time.
Some
diplomats are concerned that the SPDC may be
interested in acquiring some sort of nuclear
weapon, or at least obtaining enough nuclear
material to make a so-called "dirty bomb". The
SPDC claims it wants a nuclear reactor for
peaceful medical research and maybe to generate
power and strongly maintains that it has no
interest in making a nuclear bomb.
Some
believe that the junta sees the potential upside
to North Korea's recent nuclear brinksmanship
against the United States. Representatives of
North Korea's Daesong Economic Group were in
Myanmar in 2003 and the company has a record of
secretly proliferating nuclear and missile
technology, including to Pakistan. Opposition
media sources based in Thailand have also reported
that the SPDC has been sending officers to North
Korea for nuclear-related training, including 80
officers in November 2003.
These reports
may be jumping the gun, as all the officers were
members of the air defense and artillery divisions
of the army and could have been sent to gain
expertise in new artillery or surface-to-air
missiles. Moreover, there has been some
speculation by diplomats and intelligence
officials that Myanmar may be paying for the arms
and technology transfers with drugs. This
connection has not been substantiated with hard
proof, but there is plenty of circumstantial
evidence.
A February 16 US Congressional
Research Service report, "North Korea
Crime-for-Profit Activities", accused Pyongyang of
involvement in heroin and methamphetamine
smuggling and the production of counterfeit
currency and cigarettes. North Korean heroin
shipments have been interdicted in the past, but
it remains unclear whether Pyongyang was the owner
or merely the shipping agent of the narcotics.
There is at least some connection to
Myanmar, though not necessarily to the SPDC.
Heroin seized in Taiwan in 2002 and in Australia
in 2003 was labeled with the Double-UO-Globe
brand. This brand of opium is produced by the
United Wa State Army, which operates in northern
Myanmar. Although North Korea is believed to
produce its own heroin and methamphetamines, it
could be supplementing its own production with
that from Myanmar.
A 2003 article in the
Far Eastern Economic Review quoted US intelligence
officials as saying North Korean agents had been
seen in the Golden Triangle. While it is unlikely
that the SPDC would directly hand drugs to North
Korea, it has become clear in recent years that
despite rhetoric to the contrary, the regime is
involved in the production and trafficking of
drugs within Myanmar and to neighboring countries.
Army units have been accused of taxing the trade,
providing protection to production laboratories,
and allowing drug barons to invest money in
legitimate businesses.
One advantage for
North Korea in normalizing bilateral relations
with Myanmar would be to establish a formal
diplomatic channel to pressure the junta to crack
down on North Korean refugees escaping across the
Chinese border, traveling through Myanmar and
across to Thailand, from where they are
repatriated to South Korea. Growing refugee flows
have become a point of embarrassment for Pyongyang
and it undoubtedly would like to see the route
through Myanmar severed. Myanmar security forces
would also likely have knowledge of the movement
of North Korean refugees through their contacts
with ethnic insurgent ceasefire groups along the
Chinese border and hence would be in a position to
interdict the refugees if ordered to do so.
Yet there are also risks to normalizing
ties. South Korea has become one of Myanmar's
leading trade partners and a major investor, and
establishing formal diplomatic relations with
North Korea could risk antagonizing the budding
commercial relationship. The decision will likely
also be unpopular with the 10-member Association
of Southeast Asian Nations, particularly with
member countries Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
Myanmar is a member of the grouping.
Myanmar's apparent desire to acquire
power-projection capabilities makes Thailand in
particular nervous, considering the two
traditional adversaries share long stretches of
contested border areas and Bangkok has quietly
provided sanctuary and support to armed ethnic
insurgent groups. Myanmar's army and Thai security
forces have occasionally clashed in recent years.
Meanwhile, both Malaysia and Singapore
would likely view any sort of North Korean
military presence in the region as a destabilizing
influence. Myanmar's attempts to acquire SRBMs,
submarines and nuclear capability from Pyongyang
could spark a new arms race, one that few regional
governments could afford.
The SPDC may be
hoping that the re-establishment of diplomatic
relations with North Korea will give it an ally
against Western pressure, especially from the US.
It may turn out, however, that the opposite is
true. Both regimes have well-documented histories
of human-rights abuses, narcotics trafficking,
money-laundering, human trafficking and forced
labor, and establishing formal bilateral relations
and strategic linkages will likely make the US and
the European Union take greater notice of their
interactions.
The US already views Myanmar
as a rogue state and some US politicians called
for adding Yangon to President George W Bush's
"axis of evil" after the SPDC's violent attack in
May 2003 on democratic opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi's motorcade. Until now, Myanmar has not
been a strategic concern to the US, but a
substantial improvement in Myanmar's military
capabilities and closer ties with a proliferating
North Korea could quickly change that calculus.
Clifford McCoy is a Chiang
Mai-based journalist.
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