Myanmar drops a nuclear
'bombshell' By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Myanmar's military leaders have
never made a secret of their interest in
developing a domestic nuclear-energy industry.
Plans to buy a nuclear reactor from Russia have
been in the pipeline for years, and this month in
Moscow the two sides formally resurrected those
controversial plans.
Myanmar's move
notably comes at a time when both Iran and North
Korea have raised US hackles through their nuclear
programs. Washington in recent years has referred
to Myanmar
as
an "outpost of tyranny" and maintains trade and
investment sanctions against the military regime.
Some political analysts are already speculating
whether Myanmar might try to use the threat of
re-gearing its nuclear test reactor to reproduce
weapons as a way to counteract US-led pressure for
political change.
Under the new agreement,
Russia's atomic energy agency Rosatom will build a
nuclear-research center, including a 10-megawatt
light-water nuclear reactor with low-enriched
uranium consisting of less than 20% uranium-235,
an activation analysis laboratory, a medical
isotope production laboratory, a silicon doping
system, and nuclear-waste treatment and burial
facilities, according to a statement released by
Rosatom.
The project is initially slated
to focus on medical and agricultural research in
support of Myanmar's languishing and highly
underdeveloped economy, a Western diplomat
acquainted with the nuclear plans told Asia Times
Online on condition of anonymity. As part of the
agreement, Russian universities would also be
tasked with training an additional 350
Myanmar-national specialists to work at the
planned nuclear center.
Over the past six
years, more than 1,000 Myanmar scientists,
technicians and military personnel have received
nuclear training in Russia, according to Myanmar
government officials. Under a 2002 agreement,
Russia was set to build a nuclear reactor in
Myanmar but later scrapped the plan over the
junta's lack of funds. Nonetheless, Moscow
informed the United Nations' International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) in mid-2003 that it planned
to provide training in nuclear science to some 300
Myanmar citizens each year.
According to
Russian officials, the construction and
supervision of the planned research center will
come under the control of the IAEA. Myanmar is
currently a member of the IAEA and already
reportedly has a so-called "safeguards agreement"
in place. Under the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT), states in compliance with their
safeguards' obligations and other provisions are
allowed to pursue nuclear energy or technology
solely for peaceful purposes.
In practice,
however, verifying the fulfillment of those
obligations has proved difficult, most recently
witnessed in the case of Iran's secretive
nuclear-energy program, which it insists is for
peaceful purposes and within its NPT rights, while
others, such as US, suspect it is geared for a
weapons program. Russia is also involved in
developing a nuclear facility for Iran.
There are already concerns in some
diplomatic quarters that Myanmar's notoriously
reclusive regime could throw up similar challenges
to IAEA inspectors. No timetable has yet been set
for the implementation of this one-off safeguards
agreement, nor have any provisions been set for
procuring supplies beyond what is required
initially to establish the nuclear-research
center, diplomats note.
Moreover, the
junta's stated motivation for establishing a
nuclear-research reactor has vacillated over time.
In January 2002, then-foreign minister Win Aung
told this correspondent that Myanmar was committed
to developing a nuclear-research facility for
medical purposes and also possibly to generate
nuclear power. Myanmar "is keen to explore the use
of nuclear energy", he said at the time. "After
all, many other countries in the world are using
nuclear power."
At that time, Win Aung
said no deal had been signed, but that initial
research had been undertaken. Apparently the
initial plans to develop a nuclear-energy industry
emerged a year or two earlier. Win Aung told the
IAEA in September 2001 of the country's plans to
acquire a nuclear-research reactor and requested
the agency's help in securing one, according to
IAEA officials who spoke on condition of
anonymity.
Two months later, the IAEA sent
an inspection team to Myanmar to assess the
country's preparedness to use and maintain a
nuclear reactor safely. The team concluded that
the safety standards in place were well below the
minimum the body would regard as acceptable,
according to the IAEA officials. At the time,
Myanmar failed to respond to the IAEA report and
prompted UN nuclear officials in Vienna to fear
that Myanmar planned to proceed with its nuclear
ambitions without the necessary safety
requirements.
Groundbreaking had
reportedly commenced, but construction was halted
when Moscow realized the junta didn't have the
financial resources to pay for the facility. Yet
the junta never fully abandoned its nuclear
ambitions.
On the nuclear
prowl In recent years, Myanmar has sent
emissaries abroad to explore different options for
developing a nuclear reactor and avenues for
acquiring nuclear technology, according to Western
diplomats tracking the junta's nuclear plans. They
contend that this year Deputy Foreign Minister
Kyaw Too made a low-profile visit to Iran in the
regime's search for nuclear technology and
materials.
Myanmar's close contacts with
Pakistan have also recently come under diplomatic
scrutiny. Western diplomats based in Islamabad say
they are convinced that the junta's desire to
acquire nuclear know-how has been a central focus
of the budding bilateral relationship. Pakistani
officials have fervently denied that they are in
any way abetting Myanmar's nuclear ambitions. But
widespread rumors that two Pakistani nuclear
scientists accused of nuclear proliferation were
given sanctuary in Myanmar in 2003 still linger.
More ominous have been the growing
contacts between Myanmar and North Korea - last
month the countries formally re-established
diplomatic relations. According to a US State
Department official involved in monitoring
nuclear-proliferation issues, several suspicious
shipments have arrived from North Korea over the
past six months. "We have been tracking North
Korean ships and several docked in Yangon late
last month originated from the port where we
believe nuclear materials may be shipped," he
said.
After one North Korean ship docked
at Yangon's port last November, the official said,
Washington reminded the junta that it was obliged
to search the ship under the UN sanction measures
adopted the previous month after Pyongyang staged
its controversial nuclear test. Myanmar
authorities reported back three days later,
according to US sources, saying that the vessel in
question contained nothing illicit or suspicious.
Last year's shipments from North Korea
also reportedly upset China - as neither Pyongyang
nor Yangon informed Beijing of the two countries'
increasing military-to-military contacts. For
their part, Chinese authorities are convinced that
Myanmar has recently received military hardware,
including missiles, from North Korea, but not
nuclear weapons or materials, according to a
senior government source in Beijing.
The
latest North Korean shipment arrived in Yangon
this week and its cargo is being unloaded amid
exceptionally tight security, according to Yangon
residents who have passed by the port facilities.
There is still no confirmed site for the
planned nuclear reactor, though reliable sources
believe it will be built somewhere in the
country's central Mandalay division. North Korean
technicians reportedly visited the site last year,
according to a Myanmar military source who spoke
with Asia Times Online.
At the same time
as the junta presses ahead with its plans for a
nuclear reactor, the government has stepped up its
exploration for uranium in the country. Surveys
and test mining are taking place at four sites,
including in the ethnic Kachin and Shan states, a
government official told Asia Times Online on
condition of anonymity. At the time the original
plans for a nuclear reactor were mooted, the
government had reportedly discovered uranium
deposits in five areas in central and northern
Myanmar, according to official government
statistics.
The nuclear reactor that the
regime now plans to build is reportedly not
capable of producing enriched uranium or
potentially of any military use, according to
senior nuclear specialists who monitor these
matters closely. Nonetheless, there are still
concerns both in the West and in the region that
Myanmar's military rulers over the long term could
harbor nuclear-weapon ambitions.
"The
generals cannot be trusted," said a Bangkok-based
Western diplomat who follows Myanmar affairs.
"While they say they will let the IAEA in at the
moment, the history of rogue regimes like the one
in Yangon is that they never keep their promises."
Larry Jagan previously covered
Myanmar politics for the British Broadcasting
Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based
in Bangkok.
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