Arroyo foes tipped for Philippine
Senate By Stella Gonzales
MANILA - Although the official tally of
votes cast for the Philippines' senatorial
election were still to be completed two weeks
after the May 14 polls, the latest round showed
that eight candidates from the opposition party
list were inside the winning circle of 12.
Two of the other candidates in the top 12
ran as independents, while only two were from the
ruling party.
But despite the strong
likelihood of an opposition-dominated
Senate
emerging after the 12 seats up for grabs are
determined, there is little chance of President
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo being impeached. Her
administration retains control of the House of
Representatives, which is crucial in the
impeachment process.
Arroyo has survived
two previous impeachment complaints in the House
regarding election malpractice.
Representatives from progressive
party-list groups, who would likely back an
impeachment complaint, will not have enough votes
to sway votes in the House. In fact, many of them
may not be able to get the maximum of three seats
in the House this time around.
The leftist
Bayan Muna (People First), a consistent topper in
the previous party-list elections, now finds
itself placed second to Buhay (Life), a group
associated with the religious group El Shaddai.
Bayan Muna will retain three seats, but its
representatives have expressed concern that votes
during the elections were split among the
progressive groups and alleged party-list fronts
of the administration.
The government and
the military also campaigned against these leftist
groups.
With impeachment far away, Arroyo
is expected to push her legislative agenda.
Political analyst Bobby Tuazon of the Center for
People Empowerment in Governance said Arroyo will
likely spend the rest of her term until 2010
working on "economic measures purportedly to
eradicate poverty and enhance the country's global
competitiveness".
But this is where the
Senate could be a thorn in Arroyo's side. Senators
opposed to her could block administration bills
or, at the very least, make their passage
difficult, as was done in the past Congress. ''It
would also be interesting to see how the
opposition-dominated Senate will work with the
administration-dominated House," Tuazon said.
He said there is a likelihood of Arroyo's
allies in the House attempting to revive moves to
amend the constitution, "but I don't see how this
will work given the strong opposition that such a
proposal faced last time". A controversial
proposed amendment to the constitution was a shift
from the presidential to a parliamentary form of
government. Administration officials had said a
parliamentary government is more suitable for
Filipinos, while the opposition said the move was
meant to extend Arroyo's term.
One
candidate who is likely to make life difficult for
the administration, should he make it to the
Senate, is Antonio Trillanes IV, one of the junior
military officers who led a failed mutiny in July
2003. The official vote count, as of Monday,
placed Trillanes at a high 11th place, a
surprising feat considering that he is in military
detention, was not able to campaign in public, and
lacked funds.
The campaign manager of the
opposition party and some analysts consider the
votes for Trillanes "votes against Arroyo".
Tuazon said Trillanes was able to attract
votes because he was able to project himself as a
young and idealistic military rebel. "Even if many
Filipinos may not agree with the military
adventurism that he did in 2003, the fact that he
was able to come across as somebody who had
opposed corruption and stood up against President
Arroyo ... probably earned him public sympathy,"
he said.
Trillanes, in recent interviews
with the media, said that if he becomes a senator,
he will pursue the impeachment complaint against
Arroyo. And even though he has yet to be
proclaimed a winner, Trillanes has already come
under attack from administration officials, with
Justice Secretary Raul Gonzalez saying he is
"politically immature" for the Senate.
While such political bickering between the
administration and the opposition appears to be a
sure thing in the next Congress, actual
legislative work is another issue. Tuazon cautions
the public against expecting Congress "to do its
job in legislation given its dismal record in the
past".
"Congress is just a political forum
dominated by political dynasties," he said.
On the human-rights front, Tuazon said the
Senate will likely pursue its investigation into
extrajudicial killings and other rights violations
allegedly perpetrated by government forces.
Several incumbent senators and senatorial
candidates have assured rights organizations that
they will look into those matters again.
Rights groups have documented more than
840 extrajudicial killings since January 2001
(when Arroyo took over as the president). The
victims, mostly activists and people associated
with progressive organizations, are believed to be
politically motivated. "I would like to see how
[the senators] will be able to exert pressure on
Arroyo to address the issue in earnest," Tuazon
said.
"The problem is, the president is as
much accountable as her security forces are - and
addressing the issue should begin with submitting
herself to accountability. Will she do that?" he
asked. "By all indications, congressional
inquiries into this issue will not put an end to
the killings."
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