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2 Myanmar best bad buddies with
Beijing By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - Beijing's support for the junta
in Myanmar has strengthened immeasurably over the
past six months as China's leaders now see the
country as the cornerstone of their strategy
toward Southeast Asia. The internationally shunned
military regime has become a crucial part of
Beijing's policy toward Asia in the face what it
fears is the growing influence of the United
States in the region.
As a result, there
has been a flurry of visits between the two
capitals, the most important
being the recent trip by Myanmar's acting prime
minister, Thein Sein, to Beijing. There has also
been increased diplomatic and business contact
between the countries as both governments have
sought to strengthen their new relationship. Both
countries are keen to boost bilateral trade and
investment ties as well as develop social and
cultural exchange programs.
But on the
political front, irritations remain, with Beijing
quietly pressing Myanmar to introduce concrete
political reform as soon as possible.
"It
is no coincidence that the generals announced the
planned resumption of the National Convention in
mid-July just as the junta's prime minister
arrived in southwest China," Win Min, an
independent Myanmar analyst based in Chiang Mai,
Thailand, told Asia Times Online.
The
National Convention will have drawn up a new
constitution by the end of the year, junta leader
Than Shwe told a senior Chinese diplomat who
visited Myanmar this year. For months it seemed
the National Convention would not resume its
deliberations until after the rainy season,
possibly in November. It would seem that the
sudden decision to move forward on the roadmap is
a gesture toward Beijing. Thein Sein announced
that this forthcoming session of the National
Convention would be its last.
Thein Sein,
who is also the key person overseeing the National
Convention, reportedly briefed senior Chinese
leaders on the country's constitutional drafting
process and the subsequent referendum. At the same
time, Thein Sein was given a lesson in
Chinese-style democracy as he was the guest of
China's parliament, the National People's
Congress. The members of the NPC are selected
through an indirect, tiered system that only
allows direct elections at the first stage of the
process, where delegates are elected who then
elect representatives at the next levels - the
provincial and then national assemblies.
"It is clear that the regime is now
planning changes to the principles of the new
constitution that have already been drafted," an
informed source in Yangon told Asia Times Online.
"This is likely to involve borrowing some
significant components from the Chinese system -
and may mean adopting a National People's Congress
approach to parliamentary democracy and following
the Chinese constitution on giving some form of
ceremonial autonomy to ethnic areas."
Thein Sein is also believed to have
outlined Than Shwe's planned sweeping changes in
the military command and the shakeup in the
cabinet, according to a senior Myanmar government
source.
Win Min said: "The Chinese have
always been informed well ahead of time of any
significant planned changes, with the exception,
of course, of the arrest of [Myanmar's] former
prime minister and intelligence chief, Khin
Nyunt."
At the time Khin Nyunt was
Beijing's main man in the military regime, and was
often called Myanmar's Deng Xiaoping - something
that angered Than Shwe. Now the Chinese have
broadened their contacts with the regime,
maintaining close and cordial relations with all
three top generals - Than Shwe, Maung Aye and
Thura Shwe Mann.
A senior Asian diplomat
who closely follows Myanmar affairs said China's
leaders are "intent on not making the same mistake
they did before by relying on only one ally within
the regime. Instead, they have cultivated close
contacts with all three men they see as the key
leaders in the country."
For a while
Beijing courted army chief Thura Shwe Mann,
expecting him to be the main man of the future. He
has made several visits to China over the past two
years, including a secret trip to Beijing last
month.
Now more cautious about its
relations with the regime, China has been careful
not to be seen to favor only one member of the
junta. For years the Chinese leaders feared the
possibility of Maung Aye succeeding Senior General
Than Shwe as Myanmar's top leader, for they
regarded him as pro-India and relatively
anti-China.
But Beijing's attitude changed
in the wake of a secret mission by Maung Aye to
Kunming and Beijing in the middle of last year. He
was hosted by Chinese military commanders and an
understanding was struck, according to a senior
Chinese government source in Beijing.
"Military men understand each other and
talk the same language," the Chinese source told
Asia Times Online. "They sat down together, talked
and joked, as they drank strong liquor and got
drunk together."
Senior Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) representatives from Beijing also told
ethnic leaders they met in Kunming recently that
they did not have a problem with Maung Aye.
Many activists from Myanmar have long
feared that Beijing supported the country's rulers
unquestioningly, but this has not been the case,
especially in the past. China's leaders have
consistently feared that Myanmar's military junta
lacked real legitimacy and could collapse
overnight, leaving Beijing powerless and its
military and economic investment in the regime
worthless, according to a senior CCP cadre who
deals with foreign-policy issues.
China's
greatest fear remains that Myanmar is extremely
unstable and poses a security risk, especially
along its southern border. More than a million
Chinese - farmers, workers and business people -
have crossed into Myanmar in the past 10 years and
are working and living there. The Chinese
authorities fear that any upheaval in Myanmar
would result in a mass exodus of Chinese back
across the border, creating increased industrial
and social unrest in their sensitive border
regions.
China's other concern is that
Myanmar's economy, far from expanding and
producing business and investment opportunities
for Chinese businesses, especially those based in
bordering Yunnan province, is actually
contracting. Two decades ago, China's leaders and
economists saw that the development of their
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