Wobbly democracy for East
Timor By Fabio Scarpello
DILI - Democracy is taking hold in East
Timor, but the inconclusive result of recent
parliamentary elections is raising the specter of
new political confrontation rather than
resolution.
The June 30 polls were held
against the backdrop of last year's political
violence, which saw then-prime minister Mari
Alkatiri step down in the wake of political
violence after the army split on regional lines
and international peacekeepers were called in to
restore calm.
Alkatiri's Fretilin (Revolutionary Front
for an Independent East Timor) party won 29% of
the vote, more than the 24% earned by former
president and rebel leader Xanana Gusmao's party,
known as the National Congress for the
Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT), and which has
since the election formed a coalition with three
more parties, representing a parliamentary
majority. However, vague election laws have left
both Fretilin and the CNRT-led alliance claiming
the right to form the next government.
So
far neither side has budged and it appears that
President Jose Ramos Horta could eventually be
called on to mediate the electoral deadlock.
Although the situation is currently calm, there
are concerns in some quarters whether both sides'
supporters would peacefully accept a decision in
the other's favor.
Despite the lingering
doubts, East Timorese and the political actors can
so far pride themselves for their healthy display
of democratic will. An estimated 81% of the
548,000 registered voters cast their ballots
across roughly 700 polling stations nationwide.
The 3,000 national and international election
observers indicated that the polls were free and
fair.
The new political landscape presents
a more diverse set of ideas and personalities than
it did in 2001, when the country's first
Parliament was formed under the administration of
the United Nations. Then the Fretilin party
dominated the electoral process, controlling 55 of
the 88 seats.
One way or another, East
Timor will have a coalition government and a
strong opposition, healthy signs of a budding
democracy. To be sure, memories of the
anti-Indonesian resistance war and the cult of
personalities it gave rise to still played heavily
on voter's minds, shown by Fretilin and the CNRT
placing first and second.
Yet both parties
received fewer votes than expected and several
smaller parties consolidated their support bases.
In particular, the strong performance of the
coalition of the Timorese Social Democratic
Association (ASDT) and the Social Democrat Party
of East Timor (PSD), collectively known as
ASDT-PSD, which won 16% of the vote, and the
Democrat Party (PD), which won 11.3%, signals a
new sophistication of the young country's
politics.
Fringe parties are also expected
to play a significant role in government. The
National Democratic Unity of Timorese Resistance,
a coalition of three small parties led by the Sons
of the Mountain Warriors and the National Unity
Party (PUN), are the other parties that won seats
in the 65-seat chamber.
Among these, the
PUN is arguably the one to watch. Led by Fernanda
Borges, the party managed a respectable 5% of the
vote on its first attempt, and Borges' mix of new
political ideas and the support she enjoys from
the local Catholic Church could see her party
transform itself into a major contender in the
future.
In the immediate future, Fretilin
and the CNRT will still dominate the political
scene - either as coalition leader or in
opposition. Although is won the largest number of
votes, Fretilin emerges from the democratic ballot
badly bruised. It is still East Timor's largest
political party, but the 29% of the vote it
garnered is a far cry from the 57% it won back in
2001.
Fretilin has so far failed to win
the support from other parties to join a ruling
coalition, and party secretary general Alkatiri
appears bent on forming a minority government
based on its winning the largest number of votes.
His legal argument is based on an article in the
electoral law, which appears to require that any
coalitions must be formed prior to the actual
vote.
On the other hand, the constitution
says, "The prime minister shall be designated by
the political party or alliance of political
parties with parliamentary majority and shall be
appointed by the president of the republic, after
consultation with the political parties sitting in
the National Parliament."
The CNRT, which
won a lesser 24% of the vote, contends that the
constitution should legally override the election
law and therefore the newly formed coalition has
the right to form the next government. Such a
position is backed by certain independent legal
experts.
However, the final decision will
rest on President Ramos Horta, who has already
said he will choose a coalition on the basis that
it will ensure a stable government. It is widely
expected here that Ramos Horta will offer Fretilin
a window of time to present its case, but then
revert to the CNRT-led coalition.
The CNRT
coalition also includes the ASDT-PSD and the PD,
and also has the indirect support of the PUN,
which, however, decided not to join the group
formally.
Some political analysts contend
that putting those disparate groups under one
political umbrella will make a CNRT-led government
wobbly, not to mention short on governing
experience. Yet it will also likely enjoy a window
of goodwill from the electorate and more clearly
represents a fresh political start.
So far
Gusmao's party has been shy on voicing detailed
policies but rather has articulated new grand
visions. The CNRT aims to stimulate economic
growth and fight poverty by injecting money into
the grassroots economy. The funds will come from
the national Petroleum Fund, a US-based account
where East Timor has saved its oil and gas
revenues since September 2005.
The party
has stated that, if needed, it is willing to use
all of the US$1.4 billion saved so far to
kick-start the economy. What the CNRT has not yet
sufficiently explained is how this windfall will
be implemented and monitored. Doubts persist as to
whether East Timor has the institutional capacity
and integrity to absorb large cash infusions
efficiently at the grassroots level without major
seepage.
At the same time, the CNRT is
strongly advocating more decentralization of power
and says that if it is in power it will aim to
devolve decision-making to local leaders and local
government - though it is unclear how this will be
achieved and over what time frame.
On the
foreign front, a CNRT-led government is also
likely to ask for an extended UN mission in the
country and continue with the current policy of
reconciliation with Indonesia, the island nation's
former occupier. However, the CNRT is also seen as
closer to Australia than Fretilin, which, critics
say, could see East Timor taking a softer stance
in ongoing negotiations with Canberra over
disputed oil and gas fields.
The two
countries still must decide who will get the
downstream contract for the Greater Sunrise oil
and gas fields in the Joint Development Area.
Fretilin drove a hard bargain in the past, and
made overtures to China to help develop the area,
when it was decided to share the upstream revenue
equally. That policy could change with a CNRT-led
government.
Fabio Scarpello is
AdnKronos International's Southeast Asia bureau
chief.
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