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2 Unhappy anniversary for ASEAN,
Myanmar By Clive Parker
CHIANG MAI, Thailand - This week marks the
10th anniversary of Myanmar's accession to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a
controversial act of engagement that at the time
ran counter to the investment sanctions the United
States had leveled against the country's military
regime.
A decade later, ASEAN's hope that
diplomatic inclusion would nudge Myanmar's
military leaders toward more democracy has
gone
unrealized, and the tortuous process of
negotiating with the hardline regime has badly
undermined the grouping's regional clout and
global credibility.
Arguably, ASEAN's
Myanmar dilemma has now reached a crucial
diplomatic juncture. Myanmar's membership in the
10-nation grouping has frequently raised European
Union hackles, and Brussels has refused to conduct
free-trade negotiations at a regional level with
ASEAN because it would entail de facto dealing
with Myanmar.
Meanwhile, US President
George W Bush recently canceled a meeting with
ASEAN leaders in Singapore during a scheduled Asia
trip. Soon after, US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice announced that she too would skip
the ASEAN Regional Forum, a strategic talk shop
hosted by the grouping each year, scheduled for
next month in Manila.
The Bush
administration has been a strong critic of
Myanmar's regime, with Rice publicly referring to
the country as an "outpost of tyranny".
In
1997, many ASEAN members were cautiously
optimistic the grouping could leverage its various
government-to-government contacts with the
reclusive regime to promote positive political
change.
Former Thai foreign minister Surin
Pitsuwan, who is now tipped to be ASEAN's next
secretary general, in June 1998 advanced the
notion that ASEAN should abandon its tenet of
non-interference and adopt a policy of
"constructive intervention" in dealing with
Myanmar, which was later tweaked and became the
blueprint for ASEAN's diplomacy toward the junta.
At the same time, there were geostrategic
concerns that backing US sanctions would open the
way for China to gain significant influence over a
neighboring country. Although ASEAN was first
formed as a five-member grouping in 1967 to guard
against communist expansionism, particularly from
Vietnam, the political reality since the end of
the Vietnam War has been to enhance collectively
member states' negotiating leverage and strategic
deterrence with regard to China.
Critics -
namely the US and anti-junta campaign groups in
exile - have argued that the military government,
which annulled the results of 1990 democratic
elections it resoundingly lost, does not deserve
the privilege or political legitimacy of ASEAN
membership. However, ASEAN's outreach toward
Myanmar was overshadowed at the time by the
deteriorating political situation in Cambodia.
In July 1997, ASEAN took a moral stand and
deferred Cambodia's joining after a bloody coup
orchestrated by Prime Minster Hun Sen, which
entailed the murder of several opposition
politicians and a new wave of refugees into
Thailand. ASEAN at the time declined to admit
Cambodia until "free, fair and credible" elections
were held. US rights group Human Rights Watch said
at the time that ASEAN's role in Cambodia "has
certainly been highly useful and constructive, and
we hope that ASEAN will also become more active on
[Myanmar]".
Trade
reliance ASEAN's moral sway over Myanmar
has been negligible. Economically, however,
ASEAN's pro-engagement policy has paved the way
for more trade and investment. Myanmar's trade
with ASEAN has risen dramatically since 1997,
giving the military regime a desperately needed
economic lifeline in the face of US-led trade and
investment sanctions. Myanmar's trade with ASEAN,
measured as a percentage of the country's total
trade, increased from 44% in 2000 to 51.6% in
2005, official statistics show.
Of ASEAN's
current 10 members - Indonesia, Malaysia,
Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei,
Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar - only Laos
has failed to diversify its trade mix outside of
the region less than Myanmar. While much is made
of China's economic influence over Myanmar, its
total bilateral trade of US$1.2 billion in 2005
amounted to only half the amount ASEAN conducted
with the country.
As Myanmar's economy has
become more reliant on ASEAN goods and markets,
some political analysts suggest the grouping has
more political leverage over the regime than it
has exercised. That economic integration is
expected to increase, as all ASEAN members have
committed to reduce tariffs to below 5% by
the
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